Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Posted @ 10.30 pm Tuesday:

A back-and-forth game !
Now, BB-10, "Nilam", has retracked in the last 6 hrs to move slightly westwards at 6 knts/hour, and has regained itself at 993 mb, with 45 knts winds. Currently located centre at 8.8N and 82.0E. 

Mostly all international forecast models project it to move NW , and the models aim at almost at Chennai. All models have changed the colour of the forecast dramatically...all eyes on Chennai they say !

AS-2 is comfortable at home at the local address, 9.4N and 72.2E...but at 1006 mb. Will track W/NW...

Madhya Maharashtra Cold: Sudden fall in humidity from NE winds in early evening hours, and a temporary clear sky later at night, created an ideal condition for maximum outgoing heat radiation in the night. Resulting in a sharp fall in the night temperature. The loss of heat due to radiation into space was at night, and continued till sunrise, resulting in the coolest temperature before sunrise. This is common for interiors during winter clear nights.

Synoptic Situation as on Tuesday 11.30 am IST:

BB-10 (Deep Depression), it seems, has changed its mind. It is refusing to cross land, and has turned its back on Sri Lanka, after coming to within 50 kms from its shores !

Now at 8.8N and 83.4E,, its showing an "undecided" course. It has moved 100 kms Eastwards. Obviously it is troubled by the high pressure ridge in the upper levels which has descended to 14N.  
Expected track: Same,westwards with very marginal North deviation.

But, the intense convective clouding shows no sign of any trouble, as it is now covering areas along Sri Lanka and adjoining TN coasts, with cloud top temperatures at -85c. Core pressure at 996 mb and core winds at 40 knts.(Deep Depression).

Latest (12 noon): It (BB-10) has moved West again, and is at 8.4N and 82E..moved 110 kms back to yesterday's position.

Our other friend across the peninsula, AS-2 (Low) has found home in the 6N and 71.5E regions.

Sudden Cold in Madhya Maharashtra.
Nashik showing min temp of 11.2 C,  Shirdi (AWS) 11.5 C,  Pune 12.7 C. Aurangabad and Nagpur were 14.2c.
Mumbai Scruz was 20.4c.


Abhijit Modak said...

Sudden chill started to feel yesterday by me from 9pm onwards only by experiencing actual outside atmosphere here in Badlapur..

sset said...

Rajesh sir - does this mean cyclone will not enter TN? That is not good. Movement to west may indicate merge with AS low to benefit Africa/Middlewest. By the way bay low did not bring much expected torrential rain even for drought hit Sri Lanka.

Rajesh said...

sset: SAME track means of-course it will enter TN, in fact on almost the same region as stated earlier, along Central TN coasts..

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. What can be reason for sudden cold only limited to Maharashtra !
Not much cold or near normal min temps for Gujarat, Delhi, MP, UP area..

But for Maharashtra sudden cold grip and Nashik falling to 11 C !

Arpit Sharma said...

Sir,what is the position of O-3?

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur max temp touch to 32.3 C at 3. 23pm.

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur Temp falling rapidly today as 22 C @ 8.30pm. Yesterday 22 C was @ 11.30pm. Even being of cirrus clouds hovering in sky and also moon looking hazy.

Junaid said...

@abhijit,,at panvel also i can feel the chilliness in air!!@gsb u came back after a long tymm,,in the meanwhile the terrible october heat was playing truant,,u cud hav penned a poem tht tymm:):)

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Junaid. Badlapur now 20.5 C @ 10.30pm & Karjat IMD AWS showing 19.3 C.

Rajesh said...

Arpit: O-3 on schedule, moving towards the sub-continent..shall update..

Mah chill may be short lived..for 1 more night ,Tuesday night.
Pune around 14c tomorrow morning..

GSB said...

Junaid, you finally have your wish..(with apologies to the real poets on VAGARIES)..


As I write this the temperature has dropped to 26 c here in Thane. That's about a degree less than a couple of days back at this time. Hope this literary experiment induces the forces that be in reducing our daytime miseries !!!

GSB said...

SSET, I see that upto the 24th October Bangalore is in huge deficit for the month (-50% to -60%). Has the past week i.e. 25th onwards till date seen any improvement in the situation? Looks like a complete 2012 washout for the Garden city..

Posted 31st Night: Mumbai weather expected this week in city. 1st Feb - 4th February  Windy evenings, Hazy warm days and just about comfort...