And it has happened a day earlier than expected. A low has formed over Saurashtra at 1000 mb and is centred near Rajkot. This has brought down the active axis down South to Deesa (Gujarat) and runs west into BB6, now over MP and adjoining Vidharbha.
Vidharbha got very heavy rains (as per forecast), with Nagpur getting 133 mms and Amravati 113 mms overnight and 69 mms till 5.30pm today.
Rainfall earlier forecasted for Sindh (Pakistan) for Thursday has commenced on Wednesday itself.Thatta got 50 mms. Karachi got a good 35 mms, with several parts of city reporting good rains today (as per fb and blog reports).
Thursday: BB6 moves further westwards into Gujarat region, and,
a) either merges with the low over Gujarat or b) the Gujarat low moves westwards also.
Rainfall in Saurashtra and Gujarat region can continue eitherway.
Since rains have commenced in coastal Sindh and Karachi, it will continue on Thursday as systems move west. An inflow from the sea will push the rains into Sindh Northwards. Entire Sindh region will get moderate rains Thursday, with a few heavy falls in the South....
Mumbai forecast valid for Thursday as given:
"Thursday: Intermittent showers, frequented with long breaks continue. But, again, some heavy spells may add up the total to 30 mms."
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Wed afternoon Post:
BB6 moves West and lies over MP. Moving West at same strength.May merge with UAC if UAC remains intact.
Rainfall to increase in Northern Maharashtra and Adjoining Southern Gujarat coast (Surat).
Frequency and Intensity of rainfall may increase in North Konkan (Mumbai) by tonite.
The low, BB6, has deepened, and at 996 mb, lies over Chattisgarh and adjoining Vid. Major clouding associated with this low is seen in the Low itself, and moisture attracted clouding in the West of the system.
Nagpur recorded heavy rains on Tuesday, with 51 mms till 5.30 pm.
BB6 is expected to move westwards. On Wednesday, Low will be centred North of Nagpur.
Wednesday, 5th: As BB6 tracks west, we may see very heavy rains in Vidarbha, Southern MP and adjoining Marathwada. Rainfall upto 100 mms expected in certain places. Rains moving into Indore region.
Moderate* rains in Konkan will continue, with stations recording upto 13-15 cms in the ghats.
Thursday, 6th: Rainfall will be heavy in Northern Maharashtra, adjoining Gujarat coast and South Rajasthan. Moderate rains continue in Konkan, with heavy falls in North Konkan.
Also on Thursday, new low descends ( from the existing UAC) off the Saurashtra coast. The west coast trough moves away westwards from Thursday.
Thursday, Saurashtra gets moderate rainfall. Moderate precipitation in adjoining Sindh, Central Sindh and Karachi.
Adjoining Sindh (SE) and coastal Pakistan are slated to get moderate rains also. Karachi can expect monsoon showers on Thursday, with the low moving west in the sea.
With BB6 moving inland, the trough off the east coast gets "dismantled". Reducing rainfall in TN and Interior Karnataka next 2/3 days.
Mumbai City: Tuesday (daytime) was dry in South Mumbai with only 3 mms of rain. Scruz managed 27 mms till 8.30 pm.
Heavy Tuesday overnight rains, upto 50-60 mms.
Wednesday: Cloudy skies, with showers interspersed during the day. The day's total to around 35 mms(Avg) gives an indication of the quantum of rain.
Thursday: Intermittent showers, frequented with long breaks continue. But, again, some heavy spells may add up the total to 35 mms.
Thane region can get heavy rains on Thursday.
Pune: Wed/Thursday: cloudy, with light rains in certain areas.
Delhi NCR: Wednesday/Thursday: Sporadic local showers in some areas. Rainfall will be restricted to local pockets as it is not from any organised system. Rainfall upto 10 mms where it rains.
Rainfall can increase on Friday in Haryana and NCR
Surat: Rainfall increasing on Thursday.