Thursday, September 27, 2012


Thursday morning review of several inernational isobar charts show that a Low has formed in the Bay as on 5.30am Thursday. 
The position of the Low drawn from various charts show the centre of the low (1008 mb) around 12N and 88E. The clouding segment thus arrived at is in the S/SW of the low.
One model (NGP) predicts its movement towards the Orissa coast.

The SW Monsoon has withdrawn from North Gujarat, Northern MP, West UP and HP. 
Western Nepal has no more of the SW Monsoon current now.

Resultantly, the seasonal low which was dominating the movemnet of the monsoon axis , is "wiped out" and the Sindh/Rajasthan and Northern Indian regions is under a High pressure at 1012 mb. 
Expecting Northerly winds to commence in the withdrawn areas.

19 comments:

Pavan said...

will there be any changes in the forecast for the interiors

Anonymous said...

RAJESH SIR SORRY FOR NOT MENTIONING MY NAME UNDER. MR EMKAY AS I SAID SEVERAL TIMES ,I M PERSONALLY ASSUMING IT AND NOT CONTRADICTING OR NULLIFYING RAJESH SIR"S PREDICTION , THE UAC LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ENTER INTERIOR OF MAHARASHTRA NEXT WEEK N THAT WOULD CAUSE THUNDERSTORM, AS I FELT STRONGLY THUNDERSTORM WOULD NOT OCCUR THIS WEEK BUT THE FOLLOWING WEEK,CONFIRM ON THAT BY EVENING

Anonymous said...

NO HARD FEELINGS , JUST WANTED TO BE CLEAR, BY THE WAY I M .



Neelam Shastri

Pradeep said...

Rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am on 27.09.2012 around Chennai region

Cheyyar - 72
Puzhal - 34
Avadi - 28
Cholavaram - 28
Chennai City - 23
Redhills - 22
Ellapuram - 16
Marina Beach - 11
Tamaripakkam - 11
Guindy - 8
Cheyyur - 6
Madhavaram - 6
Chennai AP - 4

September Total

Chennai AP - 183
Chennai - 213

SWM Season Total

Chennai AP - 502
Chennai - 407

Pradeep said...

Rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am on 27.09.2012 around Chennai region

Cheyyar - 72
Puzhal - 34
Avadi - 28
Cholavaram - 28
Chennai City - 23
Redhills - 22
Ellapuram - 16
Marina Beach - 11
Tamaripakkam - 11
Guindy - 8
Cheyyur - 6
Madhavaram - 6
Chennai AP - 4

September Total

Chennai AP - 183
Chennai - 213

SWM Season Total

Chennai AP - 502
Chennai - 407

Anonymous said...

emkay try to understand first then comment.


thanks

Anonymous said...

On which date south west monsoon would withdraw from mumbai.as it has from gujrat.how many days left for mumbai to get withdraw

Anonymous said...

YES Abhijit, as per my personal point of view thunderstorms will occur only in the following week that is also under the influence of UAC from the bay .once again this is completely my opinion and this is not to owerpower Rajesh sir's prediction, as Rajesh sir enjoys welcoming everyones opinion. so i felt like adding to it a bit of my knowlege.my sinciere appology to Rajesh sir, if it has disturbed him in any ways. thanks.



Neelam shastri

Anonymous said...

emkay speaks , when somebody predicts sensible thing , where was he when people were comenting rubbish on sset , that time he had nothing to say that this is rajesh sir's block. look wide MR EMKAY . OR DONT SPEAK.



thanks preeti

Anonymous said...

SOUTHWEST MONSOON WILL WITHDRAW FROM MUMBAI BY 10TH OCT AS PREDICTED EARLIER.AFTER THE THUNDERSTORM'S ARE GONE.



THANKS

Anonymous said...

U RIGHT NEELAM ,WEATHER IS CLEAR AND BRIGHT IN MUMBAI . NO SIGNS OF THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEK.

rajesh said...

Neelam: I have been with weather related people and professionals for the last 40 odd years. There is absolutely no question of feeling bad or offended when you give your predictions. In fact, this blog is to encourage and bring more awareness amongst us meteorologists.
and, i know that forecasts and estimates can differ.
With your name, please give your views so that discussions and chats become simpler...
appreciate your understanding..

Pavan: shall review the situation again tonite..

Pavan said...

raining very heavy in many parts of int karnataka

Puneet Bangera said...

Here in Dombivli(mumbai),i can see the patch of CB cloud developing in the eastern sky.It's a sign of Thunderstorm coming this week.

Anonymous said...

cb clouds formation was clearly seen in the evening at 5 pm here in mumbai (dadar)looks like south of mumbai could receive thundershowers.

thanks .Neelam shastri

Abhijit Modak said...

As per satellite image convective clouds developing on west coast can be seen.At moment right from Goa till Raigad district thunder formation can be seen..

And Mumbai radar showing thunderstorm activity in patches right from Dapoli to Khopoli belt..

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Neelam shastri. Thanks for an identification as it will make discussion more simpler..
Next week I am also hoping of Thunder activity under influence of Bay UAC which might enter Maharashtra via AP/MAH border route near Vidarbha region by Monday. So Mumbai can expect activity from 1st Oct to 3 Oct period..

And I think Mumbai & Surroundings can get thunder activity on 28/29 Sept too but I also have an doubt in mind that Thunderstorm may remain south of Mumbai that is from Raigad to Goa area !!

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Pavan. Some activity is seen in SE of Phursungi as per Mumbai Radar. So how is the weather near Hadapsar area !!

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Pavan.Some drizzling report coming from Kharadi area of Pune.. What at Hadapsar area ? I think Hadapsar may be having more intensity as coming from SE side as per Mumbai RaPPloc 32dar..