Thursday, September 27, 2012


The Low in the bay has moved N, and is now located at 15N and 88E.It is now numbered BB7. 

Corresponding clouding with the system is seen in the West of BB7.

Vagaries expects BB7 to track N/NE, and remain at the current 1004 mb strength.

Coming back to the Indian region, now that the Monsoon has withdrawn from the Northern state, and Western MP, we see the projected vertical line of wind dis-continuity running Southwards from Maharashtra down Southwards. 

As explained earlier, the winds to the North of our "Region A" (now formed. Reason i had requested to go thru the previous blog. To understand "Region A"), and turning NW South of region A. See here.
This is causing the turbulence in the Upper atmosphere, and instability at medium levels.
A string of thunder activity is seen Southwards from interior Maharashtra thru interior Karnataka.
This position remains status quo till Sunday, hence interior Maharashtra and Karnataka thunderstorm activity gradually increases this week end. (for Mah: Pune /Mahableshwar/Kolhapur/Solapur).

Meanwhile, another UAC forecasted (only) by Vagaries off the Karnataka coast is expected to form by Saturday. Saturday sees very heavy rains along the Karnataka coast due to this system.

Subsequently, this off shore UAC and  the  weakened BB7,  as an UAC, form a horizontal trough, roughly running thru Karnataka.
Heavy rains in Karnataka Saturday and Sunday. I repeat, Bangalore gets heavy rains this weekend....


This weekend, Monsoon further withdraws from South Gujarat, MP and Vidharbha. Hence, "limping rains" in Vidharbha.

Dry for Delhi NCR, with days hot at 35c, and nights dropping slightly to 21c by Sunday morning.

Mumbai: 
Though we did spot prominent "dotted' alto cumulus clouds on Thursday, the sky was not yet "blue enough", and was a bit hazy.
Due to inland developments close to Mumbai, favourable chances of a couple of thunderstorms drifting in from the East till Sunday



34 comments:

sset said...

Rajesh Sir,
Bangalore rain, after gap of 2 dry hot monsoon months - only 8mm!!!
Forcast lost its way? worst than desert rains -> 200mm-400mm.
As u mention about low over orissa, this will again be a problem of southeast interior peninsular India.

Power situation in KARNATAKA gone bad to worst - drought,garbage,power cuts..

Forget about rice, even maize crop has started to dry out.

MANGALORE: Compared to last year, the state may face a severe power crisis this year, following deficit rainfall and low wind velocity.

For production of electricity, the state mainly depends of wind power from September to December, but for the past one week, wind velocity has drastically decreased, minister for energy Shobha Karandlaje told reporters here on Wednesday.

Last year during this period, 1,500MW was produced every day through wind power but for the past one week, only around 200MW a day is being produced, she added.

Providing sufficient electricity this year is a challenging task, she said. The state has been hit by drought for the second consecutive year, and this is the worst situation in the past 40 years, with water level in dams fast dropping. Last year, there was 96% water in Linganamakki dam, but this year it is down to 80%. Water in Supa dam stands at 56% while Mani has only 60%, Shobha said.

Listing another problem, she said: "For the past week, we could not use coal properly for power boilers because we were getting slurry coal, which is almost like a paste, from the northeast region following heavy rain there."

Asked how the power crisis will be managed, she said the government has been purchasing power from other states and a tender has been floated to purchase another 750MW. "We are not getting 750MW, but will get 250MW from Gujarat after January," she said.

Power production units in Bellary, Udupi and other small power production units will stabilize the power crisis in December, she stated.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bangalore/Shobha-paints-bleak-power-picture/articleshow/16562765.cms

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bangalore/Brace-yourself-for-power-cuts/articleshow/16562757.cms

thanks

Pavan said...

In pune it rained a bit in eastern region but rain intensity was heavuer at places south southeast like uruli m.alandi yawat phursungi city is getting drizzles at idolsted places
in karnataka dharwad belgaum bellary gadag bijapur(tidagundi aws) got some decent rains a pic of dharwad iam posting on fb

salil said...

where can I see photos on FB.

rajesh said...

sset: Thanks for the note.Please correct yourself, vagaries has NOT mentioned of any low over Orissa. Vagaries has specifically given location of the system...
and Banglore forecast not LOST ITS WAY...if read carefully, the Banglore city is mentioned to receivethanks rains from Saturday...i always mention specific dates and locations taking great efforts to do so..

rajesh said...

salil: a lot of inter action is on in FB..please request to join the Vagaries of the Weather group....

NT said...

Rajeshbhai, the Bay low is forecasted by you to move N/NE and not track towards NW and cross the India coast due to the upcoming WD?

rajesh said...

NT: ??not clear please ?

rajesh said...

NT: Ok, got your query ! Sorry "tube Light"
Systems start tracking N/NE as high pressure starts dominating the Indian mainland. The high , now forming very quickly over India, will not allow, (as a monsoon axis in season forms a corridor for any system to track freely)BB7 to move NW...thats my veiw point

NT said...

Oh ok, got it Rajeshbhai, thanks for the clarification. I had read the IMD update and the mention of a WD crossing the Himalayan region and hence the thought.

This means the low will not likely land up at Maharashtra's door step as being discussed by a few readers and shown in a few models.

rajesh said...

NT: The WD at 500 hpa is actually over North Kashmir, in fact extreme north. Would be too far north to effect if at all..but not in this case though..

GSB said...

I see quite a few readers of the blog actually participating thru the comments section for the first time... good for the blog and acknowledgement of the effort and hard work put in by Rajesh sir..

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. What parameters are set to declare withdrawal of SWM ? Can we not consider thunderstorm in post(after) monsoon phase ! As from past 3days no SW low level black clouds movement seen or SW winds also not present in North Konkan belt ! Just NW/ Northerly breeze and high level white clouds hovering. And also 90% of station reporting NIL rains from past 5 days in North Konkan belt !

Anonymous said...

@ NT as mentioned earlier the UAC will not have a direct effect on maharashtra , but will definitely bring thunderstorm in and around maharashtra including mumbai. as far as its route is concerned, it is going to enter the vidharba region , that means it is already entering maharashtra, so definitely its effect will be all over maharashtra, specially konkan and interior maharashtra.


thanks Neelam shastri

rajesh said...

abhijit: All the parameters for SWM withdrawal have been detailed in vagaries on sept 8th.
Since u r interested please read thru them first; the link
http://rajesh26.blogspot.in/2012/09/features-of-south-west-monsoon.html

Then, correspondingly check todays situation, and you will understand why i have withdrawn the SWM till today upto North Gujarat, MP and not yet Mah.

See todays situation vis-a-vis some of the parameters here:
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-wv.htm

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/dmeanolr.htm

olr shud be more than 290-300

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/daily_uth.htm

uth less than 10% at the most

Anonymous said...

HI Rajesh,

Thanks for excellent forecasts. I am following your posts regularly.

btw, here is the ECMWF forecast of the BB7 movement and it says its moving north west and coming near to orissa/AP coasts.

Thanks,
chin

Anonymous said...

sorry missed the link earlier comments.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012092712!!/

venkatesh said...

Early morning Steady drizzle for past one hour in north bangalore

sset said...

Excellent Rajesh Sir, I require atleast 300mm of rain over Bangalore - for my tree plantation for poor people- saytrees.com, post that myself will going away from Bangalore forever (end oct) to "NAVI MUMBAI - worlds most greenest city".

Anonymous said...

WOW THATS GOOD NEWS ATLEAST WIL NOT HEAR ANY MORE BANGALORE IS GOING TO BECOME A DESERT, STAY THERE DONT COME BACK ANYMORE.ENJOY THE RAINS IN MUMBAI NEXT MONSOON.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ sset. Yaa. Navi Mumbai and surroundings holds many trees of typical Konkan type.

But now except big trees all grass(greenery) is turning yellowish as no rains here from past 5days ! Which is surely indicating an SW monsoon withdrawal now..
So max temp here is now rising around 33 C and min temp around 25 C and very sultry conditions which is indicating an start of October heat !!

So now (new grass)greenery here will be back after 9months !!(i.e by June 2013. )

Abhijit Modak said...

I think Today day has come Mumbai & Surrounding should gets its Farewell of Thunderstorm !! Hoping for 60% chances of Thunderstorm !!

Same changes observed today morning at least in Badlapur area..
1.Less fog today..
2.Then past 3days was having min temp of 23 C but today min temp raised to 25 C here.
3.Some very high level white clouds are coming in groups from ESE direction from morning itself..
Otherwise past 4 days were having low level white soft clouds popping out after 9am and that too from NW direction !!
4.Humidity was more above 80% for full night and early morning too..

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur was having max temp of 31 C for past few days..
But today chances of raising of max temp is there, may go up till 33/34 C !!

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. From yesterday I watching as per Mumbai radar & Satellite image that there are early morning thunderstorm are taking place in Arabian sea (50- 100km west) off shore of west coast right from Alibaug coastline till Coastal Karnataka coast line..
So whether is it an indication of UAC forming in Arabian sea !
And why that Thunderstorm are creating into deep Sea and that too in early morning period only and not over coastal towns !

Vijayanand said...

Good rain yesterday in South Bangalore. It rained at 5.00 pm , later at 8.00 pm and finally early in the morning.
Its a warm , sultry morning to start with. Hoping for good rain today as well.

Rajesh sir, I am eagerly waiting for the heavy rain this weekend. Hope its a super bash :)

emkay said...

Rajesh, seems IMD & NOGAPS are predicting a landfall near Andhra-Orissa coast for BB7, waiting to see how it progresses, in the light of your staking out for a Eastwards progression

Anonymous said...

Models are now predicting a route change for the Bay Low, while it is still being shown to enter India around Orrisa, NGP shows it curving in the NE direction i.e. going towards the BOB. UKMET shows in entering India and then shooting up straight in a Northernly direction before fizzling out. GFS continues to show the low not making an India landfall at all.

NT said...

Am in Goa since the last two days, the weather here at Verna became cloudy 2 hrs. back with a lot of breeze, we have had couple of brief showers here. I could sense a quick drop in the temperature, it's become very cool now.

junaid said...

@rajesh how can bhuj and kandla receive 8 cm nd 4 cm respectively,,,,when sw monsoon has withdrawn from those areas????

Pavan said...

@NT as verna is a plateau and has a typical weather as it at the top of the zuari valley towards east and sea towrds wesr

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Junaid.Same question I was also going to ask to Rajesh Sir..

Even today post afternoon also SW Suarashtra mainly near coastal area between Porbandar & Junagadh belt had some Thundery heads developed & might even rain also there !!

But we here in Mumbai & Pune and there Surroundings suburbs are just waiting for Thunderstorm farewell since 20 September !!

And daily till afternoon some hopes of activity is there but after 3pm onwards sky starts to get clear and that makes we all very disappointing ..

In our belt only Khalapur (Dist :- Raigad) on Mumbai- Pune Highway received 50mm rain yesterday evening..

Anonymous said...

i would say wait patiently as the farewell thunderstorms are going to take place from 2 nd october onwards in mumbai may be only 2 or 3 thunderstorm. so dont come to conclusions , and no matter where the UAC travels it is not going to weaken the chance of thunderstorm . as it was predicted earlier thunderstorm will not take place this week but the following week .for sure .tuesday should bring some good news for mumbai.


thanks preeti

Abhijit Modak said...

@ preeti. Yes, I am also hoping the same since Wednesday only !!

But without being dependent on Bay UAC, I was expecting some localized convection to occur for Mumbai- Pune Region !

But I think that Bay UAC or Super Typhoon " JELAWAT" may be responsible for disappearing of localized convection of our Mumbai & Pune region which were expected from 20 September onwards !!

Anonymous said...

yes abhijit thats the reason for delay in thunderstorm , but as the UAC moves away , we shall have thunderstorm very soon, n a grand finale of south west monsoon.lets wait for 2 nd october

reshma M said...
This comment has been removed by the author.