The Low in the bay has moved N, and is now located at 15N and 88E.It is now numbered BB7.
Corresponding clouding with the system is seen in the West of BB7.
Vagaries expects BB7 to track N/NE, and remain at the current 1004 mb strength.
Coming back to the Indian region, now that the Monsoon has withdrawn from the Northern state, and Western MP, we see the projected vertical line of wind dis-continuity running Southwards from Maharashtra down Southwards.
As explained earlier, the winds to the North of our "Region A" (now formed. Reason i had requested to go thru the previous blog. To understand "Region A"), and turning NW South of region A. See here.
This is causing the turbulence in the Upper atmosphere, and instability at medium levels.
A string of thunder activity is seen Southwards from interior Maharashtra thru interior Karnataka.
This position remains status quo till Sunday, hence interior Maharashtra and Karnataka thunderstorm activity gradually increases this week end. (for Mah: Pune /Mahableshwar/Kolhapur/Solapur).
Meanwhile, another UAC forecasted (only) by Vagaries off the Karnataka coast is expected to form by Saturday. Saturday sees very heavy rains along the Karnataka coast due to this system.
Subsequently, this off shore UAC and the weakened BB7, as an UAC, form a horizontal trough, roughly running thru Karnataka.
Heavy rains in Karnataka Saturday and Sunday. I repeat, Bangalore gets heavy rains this weekend....
This weekend, Monsoon further withdraws from South Gujarat, MP and Vidharbha. Hence, "limping rains" in Vidharbha.
Dry for Delhi NCR, with days hot at 35c, and nights dropping slightly to 21c by Sunday morning.
Though we did spot prominent "dotted' alto cumulus clouds on Thursday, the sky was not yet "blue enough", and was a bit hazy.
Due to inland developments close to Mumbai, favourable chances of a couple of thunderstorms drifting in from the East till Sunday