BB6 now over Upper Sindh is at 1000 mb. We also see a WD at sea level, also at 1000 mb. With this system (WD) suddenly trooping eastwards in the Northern regions of Pakistan, with a distinct trough southwards from it.
We have a distinct possibility of BB6 getting embedded in the trough by tomorrow (Tuesday). So, a chance of it getting a bit strong on Tuesday. But, by late Tuesday/Wednesday, the WD will pull the rain system along with it North-Eastwards.
Due to the embedded low in the trough, there will be clouds drawing from the Arabian Sea towards the trough, and then pushing North-Eastwards into Kashmir, HP, Punjab, Haryana, North Rajasthan and Utteranchal by Wednesday.
The low in the bay (which we did not even number) has become an UAC at 850 hpa. I expect it to initially move Westwards for a day, and then merge with the axis.
Tuesday: Rains showing a definite decrease in Upper Sindh (Pakistan). Karachi may get cloudy weather with drizzles in some parts.
Rains in East Rajasthan, MP, Vidarbha and North AP remain moderate due to active monsoon axis.
Konkan light to moderate rains with stations averaging between 20-40 mms.
Wednesday: As the rains diminish from Sindh, Northern regions of Pakistan including Punjab gets rain.
Rains push into Northern states of Kashmir, HP, Punjab and Haryana.
Delhi NCR may get some rains from evening/night.
Vidarbha and North AP continue to get rains. Heavy showers possible for Hyderabad.
Konkan rains get weaker.
Thursday: Monsoon axis moves Northwards.
Rains in Punjab,Haryana, Delhi NCR and HP.
Maharashtra will see isolated local rains in few places. No organised rainfall.
Nepal gets increasing rainfall from Thursday. Kathmandu may see more rainfall frequency from Thursday.
Thus, we see increasing rains in Delhi NCR on Wednesday evening and Thursday.
Central India, i.e. East Rajasthan, MP, Vidarbha, North AP being along the monsoon axis continue to get rains of heavy to moderate intensity next 2 days.
Tuesday/Wednesday: Sunny warm intervals in the day. A few passing showers, in different parts. Day temp will be around 31c. Rain Amount: 10-15 mms.
Thursday: Warm day, with thunder clouds developing by evening. Showers in the evening will total up to 15-20 mms.
Pune: Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday: Cloudy with light drizzles. Rainfall upto 7-10 mms /day.
Surat: Tuesday/Wednesday: cloudy with a few showers adding up to around 10-15 mms.
Thursday: Few showers, a couple of them may be heavy. Slightly more rainfall may be added on Thursday to 20 mms.
Very heavy rainfall figures of Sunday to Monday morning from Sindh (Pakistan):
Tangwani 372mm, Jacobabad 305mm, Kandhkot 282mm, Kashmore 280mm, Sukkur 164mm, Rohri 152mm, Khairpur Mirs 150mm, Kingri 80mm, Talhar 63mm, Kamber 65mm, Tanbobago 60mm, Larkan 58mm, Jhudo 53mm, Nara, Badin & Diplo 50mm each, KotDeji 45mm.
Abdasa (Kutch ) got 140 mms.