Saturday, September 22, 2012

San Francisco Fog seen via satellite and my personal experience (and pics) of this beautiful event..a treat for any met man..see International Page 
Fantastic Rare pics..

Curiosity Captures a Martian Eclipse...on Space News Page. Dont miss this unique event

GSB with the Latest rainfall analysis: On Inter Active Page..


Vagaries considers the SW Monsoon as having withdrawn from Western Rajasthan, Punjab and Kashmir as on Saturday, 22nd September.
(IMD will withdraw SWM from these regions on 24th)



27 comments:

Abhijit Modak said...

Atleast till now Badlapur & Pune belt have missed the Thunderstorm activity. Both above places evening were also almost same.. Yellowish & orange glare in the sky was seen.

rajesh said...

GSB: Remaining days might add another 40-45 mms..

sset said...

Saurabh, your explaination about "lack of rains over interior south east peninsular India" was to some extent logical - good - very different from others who have unfortunately have not thought about.

Bangalore day 22 sept - no rain - hot as ever.

GSB said...

Rajesh sir, I think your and my targets are almost similar in the 845 to 850mm band.

In the past 111 years the monsoon (1901 to 2011) rainfall has been something like this;

1 year with above 1100mm rainfall.

12 years with above 1000mm rainfall at an average of 1036mm.

50 years with above 900mm rainfall at an average of 943mm.

25 years with above 800mm rainfall at an average of 864mm.

21 years with above 700mm rainfall at an average of 765mm.

2 years with below 700mm rainfall at an average of 698mm.

The all India average of the past 111 years (1901 to 2011) comes at 898.7mm.

The all India average of the past 61 years (1951 to 2011) is at 889.5mm.

The all India average of the past 31 years (1981 to 2011) is at 877.3mm.

The all India average of the past 21 years (1991 to 2011) is at 872.2mm.

The all India average of the past 11 years (2001 to 2011) is at 849.7mm.

The all India average of the past 6 years (2006 to 2011) is at 870mm.

If this year's monsoon total is at around 845 to 850mm then it will be at the 81st rank in the past 111 years or the 32nd WORST monsoon till date.

GSB said...

It is surprising to note that the monsoon total figure has NEVER been in the 834mm (2000) to 860mm (1984) in the past 111 years.

Anything between these two figures will be a FIRST since 1901. A very unusual year indeed...

rajesh said...

GSB:1939 saw 860.5,1984 was 859.8,
Many years were below the mark though.

The worst for India was 1877 with -29%, 1899 with -26%.
But see the average rainfall variation over the long run. In 1877-1899, the average was 981 mms. At this count, the 2009 rainfall would have been -30%.
1877 rainfall was 696and declared as -29%, the worst ever. With normal of 890, it would have been only -22%.
2009, normal was marked as 892, and we recieved 690, that was termed as -23%.

Anonymous said...

heavy rains have started here in vasai for last 25 mins.


thanks neel

Anonymous said...

now the rains have stopped here at vasai , rains were very heavy for 20 mins.


thanks neel

Anonymous said...

heavy rains have started here at vasai


thanks neel

Abhijit Modak said...

Today morning Pune having very clear blue sky and is very cool also, min temp must be around 20 C.

rajesh said...

Thanks Neel, abhijit. Needed the feedback.Report of some rain in Powaii too.And from south Mumbai in the morning.
Abhijit: As per info received, Pune was 19.7c today. Send pics of blue sky if possible, want to check the colour and cloud structure...put up @8.30am

rajesh said...

Belgaum was 16.4c today morning with clear skies..

rajesh said...

Pune 19.3c today

pavan said...

many areas in interior mah and coastal and int karnataka are chilled out
madikeri 13.5,chickmaglur 14.0, belgaum 15.0(as per IMD),nasik16.1, satara,17.5 dharwad 17.7°C
shimoga aws (navile) 17.9°C, a coastal AP AWS station recording 19.1 honavar 21°C, sir these are very rare temperatures for this time of the year if may be moisture is grabbed bu some UAC. whether it will have any effect on local convectns, or NEM, and whether the withdrawl of SWM hinders have to be discussed

Abhijit Modak said...

After chilly morning for Pune now its getting bit hot and white patchy clouds spreaded in all directions now.

Pavan said...

lowest minimum temperature of belgaum on 23rd sept 2011 was 14.6 deg, and lowest ever was 14.4 on 20th sept 1994, and same with that of pune it was 18.6 on 23rd sept 2011 and 13.2 on 21st sept 1994

Anonymous said...

bughtarajesh sir, are these rains localised which are occuring in vasai from last night.


thanks neel

Anonymous said...

appologies rajesh sir , for the typing error.



thanks. Neel.

rajesh said...

Pavan: My mistake, i had put up the 5.30am reading for Belgaum. The minimum is 15.0. There was very heavy fog at night as per reader's report by mail.Nasik was 20.9c.
When the nights clear off completely, in the inland areas, the heat is lost directly into space by radiation. Radiation heat loss takes place very fast, only if there is no (zero) cloudcover, otherwise the heat is reflected back onto the earth's surface from the clouds.And prevailing humidity adds to the fog formation due to fast dropping.
Pavan, its common, i have seen major drops in aurangabad, Pune and Nasik from the middle of September frequently.No effect on either the NEM or withdrawal, in fact it is a part of withdrawal.
It is more effective away from the sea, as the land mass looses heat very fast, with no fresh addition, unlike coast, whwere warm air is pushed inland from the sea at night.
Neel: Local clouds forming due to "wanting "of convection gives rain in patches along our coast.
Yesterday, i checked up, there was heavy rain in the patch from Worli in the north to Girgaum Chowpatty only, when vagaries recorded 31 mms, it was restricted.
This happens as there is no organised system bringing widespread rains, but moisture is still present as monsoon is holding on.

NT said...

Don't know if I am the only one feeling this, but it feels cooler in Juhu as compared to the last few days. Also, there is a bit of breeze today which was absent last couple of days.

sset said...

Bangalore day 23 sept "NO RAIN", increasing heat.
I think this is the only city where forcast for 4 months june-sept went totally wrong.
Anyway if next year continues same, still over dear weathermen donot agree - then something wrong!!

GSB said...

THIS WEEK'S ALL INDIA (16/9/2012 to 23/9/2012) RAINFALL ANALYSIS
-----------------------------------
TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL(SEASON+/-)
-----------------------------------
23/9/2012 ----------- 807 MM (-5%)
16/9/2012 ----------- 764 MM (-7%)
RAINFALL THIS WEEK --- 43 MM

TO ACHEIVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER..
-----------------------------------
min 700mm --- ACHEIVED ON 08/9/2012

LIKELY/EXPECTED TOTAL(845mm) -- 5.43mm p/d

CURRENT RAINFALL is 7.02 mm p/d
----------------------------------
TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS WEEK..
------------------------------
A & N ISLAND ---------- 187.6 mm
ARUNACHAL PRADESH ----- 171.6 mm
ASSAM & MEGHALAYA ----- 170.2 mm
SHWB & SIKKIM --------- 150.1 mm
BIHAR ----------------- 90.2 mm

BOTTOM FIVE SUBDVISIONS THIS WEEK..
-----------------------------------
N.I KARNATAKA ---------- 5.2 mm
RAYALSEEMA -------------- 4.8 mm
S.I. KARNATAKA ---------- 4.7 mm
WEST RAJASTHAN ---------- 2.9 mm
LAKSHWADEEP ------------- 1.3 mm

Total ABOVE AVG days this week ------ 6

Total ABOVE AVG days
this season -------------- 42 (37%)

Total BELOW AVG days
this season -------------- 73 (63%)

TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS SEASON
-----------------------------------
SO FAR : -
-------
COASTAL KARNATAKA --------- 3073 mm
KONKAN & GOA -------------- 2802 mm
SHWB & SIKKIM ------------- 2052 mm
A & N ISLAND -------------- 1944 mm
ARUNACHAL PR. ------------- 1698 mm

BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS
----------------------------------
SEASON SO FAR : -
--------------
SAURASHTRA & KUTCH --------- 302 mm
WEST RAJASTHAN ------------- 296 mm
HAR.CH & DELHI ------------- 283 mm
PUNJAB --------------------- 266 mm
TN & PONDICHERRY ----------- 211 mm

--------------****----------------
Data from IMD. Any errors pls
point this out to me

rajesh said...

Vivek: Thanks. Not widespread, and seems due to the eastern end of the axis remaining weakly active..

Anonymous said...

MR SSET ,this year north east monsoon will BE almost negligible in bangalore, so dont expect any rain this year. GOOD LUCK NEXT YEAR N STOP COUNTING DAYS ITS NOT GOING TO WRK, HEAT WILL ONLY INCREASE IN BANGALORE AS IT IS ON THE VERGE OF TURNING TO DESERT U SHOULD BE EXCITED BECAUSE OUR COUNTRY IS GOING TO HAVE A NEW DESERT .ALL THE BEST ENJOY UR STAY IN THE NEW INDIAN DESERT.

Abhijit Modak said...

Pune today also had clear blue sky in morning. Snap of Pune sky posted on Vagaries FB. Today morning Pune noted 18.7 C min temp.

Vijayanand said...

Very warm in bangalore for the last 10 days. Not much rain either. I expect rains to start later this week. We are close to the yearly wettest period for the city. This year's Dasara is going to face good rains.

rajesh said...

BTW, from whatever i can judge from the hazy city sky, the sky seems darker today, with clouds more defined. Pressure was 1012 in the morning, and a fall of 4/5 points would trigger a storm.
Also waiting to spot the alto cumulus clouds.

abhijit/kale: whatever the other forecasters say or change, i still think what i had put up on 18th on vagaries
this is the link:
http://rajesh26.blogspot.in/2012/09/city-report-as-on-4.html

should be ok. link mentions of regular thundershowers from 25th september. A few strays were expected no doubt, but did not materialise.