vagaries© of the weather.blog written by rajesh kapadia.concentrating on meteorology of the Indian sub continent and extreme world weather.
Rajesh sir, Delhi S'jng has recorded 345.2mm of rainfall this august.Please correct it in your Current weather page.
I am expecting Mumbai-Thane can get around 600mm. And Panvel ,Badlapur , Karjat & Kalyan around 700mm for September month ! As MJO is in modetarly strong phase till mid September.And South East Rajasthan Gujarat and Central India is going to get rains in first week of September. And area around 20d N Latitude is going to see rain activity.
Infact Rajeshsir,ArpitDelhi S'jng has recorded 378.8mms of rain in august and Palam surely more than 275-300mms.
And as I already said yesterday in reply to Ron, that UAC of Arabian Sea disturbs the rains of Konkan coast and in turns gives very deep blue clear sky with more than 30kms visibility. Same was happen in this June also from 11 to 15 June period !Here Karjat & Badlapur already having deep blue clear sky from past 3days in day time and also posted some snaps of deep blue sky on Vagaries FB page. And thunder cell development with drizzles at evening/night period & foggy & misty in early morning period. So UAC has changed all weather conditions here.But today some changes noted here in Badlapur as low level Black clouds were gushing from South side with some light to medium rain was noticed here in spells in morning, afternoon & evening time. And was looking like as if newly monsoon is setting over the area !(i.e same condition were noticed today which is actually seen around 7th to 15th of June which is monsoon onset period of Mumbai & Thane region).So expecting of increasing in rains for Konkan region from Sunday till Wednesday.
G.Noida is hot and humid from yesterday...where are all clouds and rain gone!!!
abhijit:Good regional forecast for September..Am really glad to see so many noticing the sky colour and cloud formations around Mumbai. Even Shitij from Surat happens to report regularly of his weather observations, I recall that just 10 years back weather was hardly the talked or discussed topic, in such details. And reports coming in from Delhi NCR, Bangalore, Hyderabad,Pune, Nagpur,Saurashtra, HP and Chennai really helps all the other weather enthusiasts to tally and compare. Never imagined this interaction even 5-7 years back.And Neeraj reminds me of me neglecting Nepal..shall include Nepal too Neeraj.Excellent contributions from Pradeep and Rajan too...great !
Arpit: Thanks, Delhi rain figures for August corrected in Current Weather Page.
From what I see we have had one of the worst monsoons here in Karachi. Absolutely no rains as compared to last year, save some showers this week. But I have noticed the GFS forecast some heavy rains for Karachi and the Sindh region. With a favourable MJO and the monsoon axis dipping south with the bay low moving west, finally I think that the monsoon will go out with a bang for Karachi & Sindh by mid-September hopefully :-)
Tyronne: This current BB5 is as good as gone. But, we may have another system forming in the bay around 3rd..and can hope for something. Yes, it can track along the axis.I think, we still have some hope..BTW, shall put up september forecast tomorrow
Yesterday Badlapur had just drizzles to light to medium short spells from South direction in intervals right from morning till evening period. Today morning too spray showers are there feeling like as if we are in Pune !! So by looking at current weather pattern here in Badlapur, I don't feel Thunder development is possible in evening/night period ! Instead low level clouds will provide showers(some may be heavy also) in regular intervals.. So overall Badlapur records 11mms rain in past 24hrs.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am on 02-09-2012).
About Withdrawal; this is what found in the IMD's Climate Profile:http://www.imd.gov.in/doc/climate_profile.pdfThe mean withdrawal dates are found to be later than the existing normal, in both the 30 years slot of 1941 – 1970 and 1971 – 2000, by about one to one and a half week. A general late onset, as concluded earlier coupled with late withdrawalsuggests a shift in the monsoon activity. The SDs of withdrawal dates range from 11 to 14 days during 1941 – 1970 and from 7 to 10 days during 1971 – 2000. This indicates that the variability in the withdrawal of monsoon has been greater during the first 30 years period as compared to the later half, not only in temporal but also in spatial scales.
I think Mumbai (scz) september rainfall will be around 550mm. I could get this totally wrong but I really think Mumbai for next 4 days will get upwards of 150 mm of rains. Really expecting off-shore through along the north konkan coast to get active. Lets see.
What the **** the rainafall continues for ….days in Karnatakain mm ending 8.30 am on 02.09.2012Arendur 198.4Dharmasthala 108.2Vendse 102Maranahalli 99.4Venoor 95Albadi 94Suntikoppa 91Hosakere 88.6Belthangadi 84.2Agumbe 84Amasebail 83Maageri 81Mudabidri 80.8Sangabettu 78Kukkala 74Sulkeri 73.2Kerveshe 72Shanthahalli 68.4Hosangadi 67.4Hallibailu 66.2Mulky 64Aluru 63Sitanadi ( Kuchur)) 63Kollur 62.6Hethur 60.2Kigga 59.4Rae 59Yelagith 58Kedinje 57.4Halady 57Surathkal 56.8Byakody 55Araga 54Ulloor II 54Kundapur 53.6Nilkund 51.8Mulikar 51.2Kogar 50.4
Sudden change in weather...Very heavy rain in G.Noida from half an hour...still on...intensity is too high!!!!
Wow still hot and sunny in Gurgaon
Heavy rain in Ghaziabad today measuring upto 30-40mms.
After a break of half an hour heavy rain started again here...though not much rain seen right now in other areas of Delhi-NCR as per the doppler radar...rain band starts from greater noida to the south east direction.
@rajesh ,,why ther is no cloud cover all along the west coast,,despite the presence of ann offshore trough nd wid a forming low in bob???(nd a wet mjo also ):(:(:(:(
Thanks rajesh will now watch the next bay low
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F-5 Activity on Wednesday