Wednesday, September 12, 2012


The latest chart shows the WD over Kashmir region and the trough extending south thru Pakistan, with the Southern end ending over the Sindh coast. Various parts of  Karachi continued to get moderate rains. Masroor got 14 mms, Saddar 13 mms, Nazimabad 12 mms and Landhi 9 mms.
Nawabshah in Sindh received highest rainfall of 46 mms.

Meanwhile, the UAC over West MP has moved NE and lies over North MP and adjoining UP. The monsoon axis runs from the embedded low in NE Sindh west towards the UAC and then SE into the Bay.
Forecast for Thursday remains valid.

By Friday 14th Sept, WD will fade away in the Himalayas, and its trough will dissolve. This will be followed by a suitable conditions for the SWM withdrawal. The commencement will be from Western Pakistan region.

From Saturday 15th, vagaries will start the Monsoon Watch for the NEM. Initially, the "origin" parameters will be the SWM withdrawal.We shall chase the parameters one by one. 

Mumbai Lake levels as on 12th on Mumbai Page..

27 comments:

Anonymous said...

from 19th september onwards monsoon will start withdrawing from north delhi n the surrounding .

Anonymous said...

most probably this week should be the last week for delhi to experience heavy rains.weather will brighten up in delhi from next weeek.as the monsoon withdrawal starts.

sset said...

Not sure if it is good news, SWM withdrawl (hope it doesn't get stuck again over MAHARASHTRA), should start NEM process.

Bangalore day SEP 11/12 very hot. NO RAIN.

Interesting fact I have notices between interior MAHARASHTRA and KARNATAKA.

1. Every district/place in Marathwada has got more rain than Bangalore. (atleast 2 times)

2. Every district/place in Vidharbha has got more rain than Bangalore. (atleast 3-4 times)

Mandya lowest rain with 80mm since june, Mysore 100mm since june - Almost many places over south TM - 0mm.

Tensions over Cauvery between TN/KAR. coastal KAR - many reserviours not full.

Anonymous said...

there r high chances of SWM monsoon to remain in n over maharashtra for at least till 20th of oct , definitely NEM going to get delayed.as mentioned earlier

KEA Weather said...

20th Oct? r u sure? I would be surprised if it remains until end of the month

Neeraj said...

Increased rainfall here in Kathmandu, Nepal for the past few days. Maybe last of the monsoon rains for this year. we can feel the beginning of change in the air now, with cool breeze every now and then (cooler than it has felt for the past three months).

Anonymous said...

@Anonymous, like Kea Weather, I too would be surprised if it remains over Maharashtra any more than October first week. What makes you feel it will remain stuck in Maharashtra uptill 20th October? Unlikely in my view.

NT said...

Rains have picked up at Andheri since the last 2 hours, right now it's raining very heavily with highly reduced visibility. Also the rains are preceded by gusty winds

rajesh said...

neeraj: Seeing increase in rains in Nepal since yesterday..we shall discuss the withdrawal and effects on Nepal from Saturday. Now, with the axis moving up more rains coming.

NT..seeing the Anheri spell over now, and moving into Thane...a biggsh passing cloud. Here SoBo only 2 mms of rain and bright now..

Readers: Anonymous, please if possible put your names and place..if its a hassle then just sign your name in anonymous posting..always better to inter- act. Thanks.

emkay said...

Very interesting latest study on impact of Global Warming on the Himalayan Glaciers http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/12/academy-finds-mixed-climate-impacts-on-himalayan-glaciers-water-supplies/?src=recg

so the hype of global warming is unjustified....

Avtansh said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Avtansh said...

While I haven't commented a lot on the blog I have been following it religiously for 3 years now. And it's been a phenomenal source of knowledge.
However, I do feel when we should be having broader constructive discussions on forecasting and covering more regions of the sub-continent, the blog is increasingly being hijacked by bigoted views fixated with theories which are nothing but a figment of someone's imagination.
Hopefully, like any noise, this will either die down or be filtered out in due course.

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur had drizzle in evening & drizzle in early morning period.

So overall Badlapur records 3mms rain in past 24hrs.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am on 13-09-2012).

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir/ NT. Was a quite bigger cloud as from Andheri it moved to Thane and then arrived in Badlapur also with rains.
At 2pm sky started to get dark here from west horizon then rain started at 2.20pm and continued till 3pm with at times heavy with gusty winds. So received 7mm rain in 40mins.

Vivek said...

Rajesh sir,

No rain in Delhi/NCR today. Hot and humid. Do you forecast showers in the next few days?

Thanks,

Abhijit Modak said...

As I said on 10th September that rain will continue in SE Sindh & Kutch, Saurashtra region till Friday due to clouding formation in NW Arabian sea off Sindh/Kutch coast..

So Heavy Rain has occur at few places of Saurashtra & Kutch region ending today 8.30am on 13-09-2012.

Some rain data in mms.

Okha (dist Jamnagar) 240mm,

Dwarka (dist Jamnagar) 120mm,

Abdasa (dist Kutch), Kalyanpur (dist Jamnagar), Morbi (dist Rajkot) 40mm

Kandla New (dist Kutch), Bhuj (dist Kutch), Khambhalia (dist Junagarh), Dhrol (dist Jamnagar), Porbandar (dist Porbandar), Naliya (dist Kutch) 30mm

Lakhpat (dist Kutch) , Mahuva(b) (dist Bhavnagar), Kotdasangani (dist Rajkot) , Bhanvad (dist Jamnagar) , Manavadar (dist Junagarh) 20mm

Source is IMD.

Anonymous said...

What are you implying to Avtansh? What bigot theories are we talking about, please specify for everyone's benefit

Arpit Sharma said...

No rain in ghaziabad today only drizzle at my place,might have rained heavily at some other places.The clouds bringing rain are not uniform hence it rains heavily at one place and other places remains almost dry.

RK said...

today it rained moderately for half an hour at G.Noida, first rain after almost a week

GSB said...

We are having an excellent second week pf September!! 4 on 4 i.e all four days above normal so far since Monday.

Yesterday S&K and W.Raj recorded 180% and 373% above normal rainfall. S&K deficit now down to 37%. This same figure of deficit was more than 80% a few weeks back!!

NWI deficit also has narrowed to 11% and the all India figure is maintained at 8%.

GSB said...

Incredible!! The rains that Thane received after about 1pm were induced by the same clouds that were in Andheri(NT) and then moved on to Badlapur(Abhijit) as they got swept in the easterly direction..

A probable first live report of "cloud spotting" on VAGARIES ??????!!!!

Abhijit Modak said...

@ GSB.. Very true..
Otherwise many times when any system is active then island city is having rains and here mainland just cloudy..
OR
Many times Mumbai cloudy or sunny and mainland from Dombivili to Badlapur/Karjat belt having heavy rains..
Such observations are noted !!

rajesh said...

NT/GSB/Abhijit: I luv it ....vagaries goes active on live commenting..Jai Ho !

rajesh said...

And a friend just reports of rainfall from Gurgaon...

Ron said...

there was sudden burst of heavy rain in deonar area at about 7-7:30 ish..

Neeraj said...

KATHMANDU, NEPAL: 135 mm of rain in 24 hrs sept 12 to 13 evening. there was quite a heavy rain on 12th evening and esp during the night, but 135 mm is too much. well, i guess, the data does not lie.

sset said...

All places over Saurashthra and Kutch,Rajisthan got excellent rains in just 15days. 250-350mm in 24hours over kutch is more than Bangalore june-sept rain!!

Bangalore as usual day 13 sep NO RAIN. HOT again. Sept as per 10years ago was rainest month and now with 0mm!!!

Myself had been to Okha,Dwaraka,Jamnager 20years back. Now it will be place with booming lakes.