Friday, September 21, 2012


SWM Withdrawal Watch:

1. We can presume the core of the seasonal low, the main factor "fulcrum" of the monsoon axis has started vanishing. Latest map shows a very weak elongated low over the Balochistan region at 1004 mb.

2. The prevailing anti-cyclone over Sindh has "elongated" and extended westwards into the Westren Rajasthan region. Low humidity and clear skies are prevailing there and the UTH has also extended its grip North-Westwards today (Friday).


3.Corresponding OLR readings of over 300 w/m2 are seen in the Kutch and Rajasthan regions.




4. 200 hpa jet streams have steaied themselves above the 30N line.

Vagaries will withdraw (and make corresponding announcement) the SWM from Rest of Pakistan, Western Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and Kashmir on Saturday, 22nd September.
(*Withdrawal is announced after the parameters are established, and 90% of the region recieves no rain).
But, by IMD standards, for withdrawal, there has to be no rain in these regions for 5 continuous days, hence the official withdrawal from them will come later. 

Saturday, 22nd/Sunday 23rd: 

There will be "triggered" storms in Interior Maharashtra and Northern Karnataka. Gujarat, barring Kutch, will get rainfall in some areas, including Gujarat region (Eastern) and Saurashtra.
Surat, Ahmadabad, Baroda, Surat and Bharuch can get showers. 

Heavy thundershowers possible in pockets of Marathwada, Vidarbha and Madhya Maharashtra.
Rainfall also possible in South MP (Indore), and extreme South Rajasthan adjoining Gujarat.

A trough runs along the East coast of India, from the UAC over Orissa, embedded in the axis. Will result in heavy rains in Orissa, Coastal AP, parts of Interior AP, and Northern regions of TN coast. 
Chennai will get the odd thundershower "popping up" on the weekend. The trough shows a reasonable "dent" along the southern AP/TN coast on the week end. Possible heavy localised showers in some parts including Chennai.

Mumbai:
Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy morning, with rain in some areas. Getting clear by late morning. Clouds re-grouping by afternoon. Thunderclouds developing by evening, with heavy thundershowers possible. 

Pune: 
Saturday/Sunday: Partly cloudy, with thunery developments from afternoon. Thundershowers, heavy in certain parts, possible.   

Delhi NCR: Few clouds. Day temperature will be around 33/34c, and nights will be at a low of 24c. SW Monsoon withdrawal in next phase after Haryana*. 

Kathmandu may get a light thundershower, with clouds developing over the ranges. But, rainfall decreases after Sunday. Currently the temperature range will be between 30-18c, but nights will drop from Monday by 2c. 


Cherrapunji Annual Total crosses 12000 mms, at 12150 mms till 21st september 2012....





40 comments:

prad said...

Extreme rainy world...rains so much. Beautiful place with monsoon rains.

rajesh said...

neel: the clouding developing now is quite localised. Moving in from the east, these are drifting westwards. So, where they have formed inland, they tend to develop and move in certain regions.

Abhijit Modak said...

This weekend myself in Pune only. Still waiting for Pune Thunderstorm.. Here now clouds movement from East to west only. Morning saw some showers later got opened up.. Now at moment again overcast.

Anonymous said...

thanks rajesh sir for the explanation.so these type of cloud developments is going to continue for few days in n around mumbai .

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur continous to be cloudy & foggy & misty at moment . Afternoon saw just light drops which may amount around just 0.5mm only.. There too from last 2days localized spells not oraganizing properly..

GSB said...

All India rainfall to cross 800mm tomorrow (8.30am readings).

The FINAL monsoon figure could be around the 850mm mark....


My prediction ...... 847.5 mm

All VAGARIES readers ... any guessestimates for the final monsoon total?



GSB said...

BY the way that was my first feeble attempt at prediction on VAGARIES ... LOL !!!!!

Abhijit Modak said...

Moderate silent monsoonish type rains in Pune area from early morning 5am onwards.

Arpit Sharma said...

Looks like a WD will affect western himalayan and might be some extent to jammu and northern punjab at around 6-7oct.

pavan said...

No rain at my place in pune hadapsar muggy weather

pavan said...

Abhijit where u r located in pune

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Pavan. Kharadi/Chandan Nagar eastern Suburb of Pune city

Anonymous said...


light rains have started here at vasai, the weather is very dark and glooomy, looks like the intensity of the rains will increase.



thanks Neel

Abhijit Modak said...

Had medium rain here from 5 to 6am then drizzles and now just overcast. Have to check Lohagaon Airport rain figures. I think rain was concentrated in East & North of Pune city only .

Anonymous said...

looks like there is a possibility of a circulation in the bay somewhere around 7 th oct, should bring some activity in maharashtra also

rajesh said...

GSB:we have rains still to add up the total from Peninsula and west coast.Thundershowers and retreating rains can be heavy, sometmes even 100 mms in a day.

Mahalaxmi and south mumbai getting showers from 6.00am and on till now 8.15 am. Vagaries has recorded 23 mms till now from 6.00am...

Neeraj said...

Kathmandu: 18.5 C low and 30.5C high. Feels hotter than it should be for this time of year.During last rainy spell, it had already become quite cool; but with the lifting of cloud cover , it has really become quite hot.Waiting for that 2 degrees drop expected after sunday.

rajesh said...

Early morning rains on Saturday measured 10 mms at Colaba, 5 mms at Scruz and 31 mms at vagaries (Mahalaxmi)...waiting for the evening session now -:)

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Last 3days I m observing that in Island city different patches of the city are having heavy rains in early morning period.

Santacruz 49mm on 20/09/2012 ending 8.30am

Thane 47mm on 21/09/2012 ending 8.30am .

Today Mahalaxmi belt 31mm on 22/09/2012 ending 8.30am.

But Mainland suburbs past 3days having hit & miss situation only. clouding forming in afternoon time but receiving just trace or 1mm rains in Kalyan-Badlapur-Karjat-Panvel area .

Abhijit Modak said...

Today Morning Badlapur also received rain spell. So around 7mm may be noted ending today 8.30am on 22/09/2012

Abhijit Modak said...

After receiving early morning medium rain here in NE Pune suburb Kharadi/Chandangar area now sky getting clear with sun shine & white patchy clouds..
So now chances are more of Thunderheads developing in evening period.

junaid said...

panvel received a moderate spell of rain at 9 am!it was very gloomy nd overcast in the morning wid clouds coming from south west!

GSB said...

Rajesh sir, considering only nine days remaining for official monsoon till 30th september I took a rough average of 5.5mm p/d to arrive at that figure..

I was just wondering (all these years surprisingly I have missed to observe this, my fault!) does IMD take the figures of 30th Sep or 1st Oct as the last day for counting total monsoon for the season?

GSB said...

Abhijit/Rajesh sir, almost no rain (0.25mm) recorded here in Thane so far today (from 0 am). Conditions are whitish grey overcast sky. A little darker towards the northern areas. Some clouds can be seen down near the Sanjay Gandhi NP. Typical Ganpati/September weather..

Pradeep said...

Cherrapunji's monstrous last 4 days rainfall makes it cross 10000 mm for the SWM 2012 and 12000 mm for the year 2012

Total - 1134 mm

19th September - 109 mm
20th September - 406 mm
21st September - 376 mm
22nd September - 243 mm

Tezu last 4 days

Total - 746 mm

19th September - 110 mm
20th September - 269 mm
21st September - 199 mm
22nd September - 168 mm

Passighat last 4 days

Total - 664 mm

19th September - 139 mm
20th September - 183 mm
21st September - 212 mm
22nd September - 130 mm

rajesh said...

GSB: IMD takes the closing as on 8.30am 30th September. The day's rainfall on 30th after 8.30am till 8.30am 1st october goes in october a/c.

Anonymous said...

GSB for the remaing period i would add another 35-40, totalling around 880 for season.
Pradeep/Rajesh waiting for the promised 20th toppers...chetan

Abhijit Modak said...

As I said Kharadi/Chandan nagar had medium rains in early morning period. So Rain data of today 8.30am is here. Lohagaon(Pune Airport) records 7.2mm which is near to Kharadi area & Shivaji Nagar, Central Pune & Pashan Western Suburbs records 0.5mm only. But Kharadi was having more intensity so here it might be fallen around 20mm.

pavan said...

Abhijit just i live 5km south of kharadi hadapsar there was absolutely no rain here but i think if u look at the sky nw it is certain that it is preparing for an evening treat just keep the fingers crossed

Anonymous said...

today on the eastern horizon thunderclouds formation is clearly seen here in vikhroli, lets keep our fingers crossed n wait for an evening thunderstorm.
nilesh

Anonymous said...

surely looks like there is going to be a thunderstorm in mumbai in the evening

Anonymous said...

well we need to wait till late afternoon , n see if things will be more clearer about the thunderstorm in mumbai ( andheri) as the thunderclouds have just started to build up on the eastern sky.and also the humidy is on the higher side as it is required for a thunderstorm.at the moment the weather is a mixture, sun n clouds along with high humidity.

Abby singh

Anonymous said...

wow thunderstorm in mumbai towards the evening, hope its a big one .

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Pavan. Yes Rain variations are seen in every 3kms range. Even mine home place at Badlapur I had seen such variations for many occasions. Yes I m also hoping for evening treat of Thunderstorm for Pune. Fingers crossed.

Anonymous said...

yes abby singh chances are high for an evening thunderstorm in mumbai

Anonymous said...

no thunderstorms just going to be reqular evening...

Anonymous said...

i dont know whether there will be thunderstorm or not , but i feel there willl be some rain activity in the night .


thanks prakash

Anonymous said...

no thunde, it will be pleasant eveningrstorm either mumbai or pune

Anonymous said...

there were extremely heavy rains in jalgoan today.

pavan said...

No rain in my lane at hadapsar in pune but there was traceable amount of rain in the lane parallel to my lane towards east very ridiculous lol my self to make a such a comment morning i was talking of kms but the rain game was seen in meters lot of [just traceable] just 800 meters from my terece but not a single drop on my roof top there are reports of huge amounts of rain in many places towards north northeast of pune today but no aws availabe there now its clear sky with moonlight and passing clouds only god knows abt tomorrows cards " Ganpati bappa moraya"