As yet the forecast seems ok -:) will be putting up a forecast for Mumbai again tonite.
Meanwhile, the UAC at 700 hpa has moved over the Gujarat Peninsula, and at 1200 hrs UTC Monday, lies over the Saurashtra region.
A Low has formed in the Bay at 998 mb, off the North AP/Orissa coast. Tracking will presently be along the axis..
Rainfall from 8.30am to 8.30 pm Monday: Scruz 148 mms, Colaba 80 mms.Official observatory readings. Same period AWS: Goregaon 220 mms, Dahisar 172 mms.Chembur 122 mms.Dadar 108 mms.
Posted @ 4.45 pm Monday:See Pic on Mumbai Page,,Fog in Mumbai...-:)
The rainfall recorded varies a lot in different parts of the city: from 8.30am to 4.30pm
Way up Vasai recorded 85 mms, Dahisar 77 mms, and Thane 80 mms.
To the east, Barvi Dam at Badlapur 90 mms, Navi Mumbai 55 mms (to be confirmed by the sources).
In the city, Chembur 33 mms, Andheri 25 mms, Malad 55 mms. S'Cruz AP 25 mms and Colaba Observatory 16 mms. Vagaries (Mahalaxmi) 21 mms.
The purpose of putting up the figures are to show that the heavy downpours and intensities are fluctuating in different parts of the City.
So, it will be very difficult to forecast and judge for an exact location. But overall for Mumbai city:
Monday early evening should see another spell of heavy rains in the Eastern and Northern suburbs. A short burst of rain in Central parts possible around late evening/night.
Rainfall decreasing after 8/9 pm to a drizzle, as convection could reduce.
Tuesday may be less than half the amount of rainfall as compared to Monday. Brightning up in the day.
Mumbai Dam figures of Monday/Tuesday comparison will be up tomorrow.
Thane rains also reducing from night, infact evening.
My perspective of the reasoning for the Mumbai Rains: Posted @ 3 pm Monday
Till yesterday we were aware of the west coast trough strenghening.
Now, it was the formation of a vortex off the Mumbai coast at 700 hpa that brought about inland convection, within a 100 kms radius of Mumbai, but to the east. As we discussed in the morning, the semi circle started forming inlad to the east after morning hours. Good (low) condensation levels (see map) and favourable conditions, and fast deepening, depth of the vortex at -70, brought violent storms.
Again at 2.30pm, high thunder clouds are seen developing around Matheran and to the NW of it. The cloud height has again reached 15 kms.
Above are charts of the vortex at 00Z UTC, condensation levels and a close up of the region at 3 kms .