Thursday, September 06, 2012

Friday Evening
BB6 tracks a bit NW and is over West Rajasthan. 
UAC off South Gujarat coast moves west, and is off the SE Sindh coast. Rain likely in Karachi tonite again as a result.

Thursday Evening:
 BB6 now over West MP, can show a possibility of moving in a NW track.Axis considerably South along North Gujarat/thru low and westwards into the bay. 

A similar axis runs aloft at 850 hpa (Thai Met). Observe the UAC over Thailand. It has moved west last 24 hrs. 

Friday 7th: 
Rainfall will be heavy in North Gujarat and South Rajasthan. Decreasing rains in North Maharashtra, Vidharbha and Marathwada.
North Konkan will get moderate rainfall, and light rains in South Konkan.
UAC over the Arabian Sea off the Sindh coast weakens after Friday. Moderate rains along adjoining Sindh coast and Upper Sindh regions also on Friday. Karachi gets some showers on Friday. 
Rainfall in Nagpur decreases considerably.

Saturday 8th: 
BB6 weakens and moves NW. More rains in Rajasthan and adjoining Sindh. 
Heavy rains in North Rajasthan, Haryana.Coastal AP and Orissa can get heavy rains. Vizag may get afternoon showers. Decrease for Maharashtra rains.
The east coast off shore trough gats aligned, which could bring showers to Eastern TN and AP on Saturday.

Pakistan Punjab also can get heavy rains on Saturday. Multan and region around can get heavy rains. Rains weak in Southern Sindh.

Sunday 9th: 
An UAC or a low may form in the Bay. East coast trough may strengthen. 
Heavy rains in Punjab and Haryana. Moderate in North Rajasthan. 
Good rains along Coastal AP and TN... Konkan rains weaken.
adjoining Pakistan also gets heavy rain on Sunday.

Nepal: With no clear system over Nepal, next 3 days will see localised Thunderstorms in the country. However, there can be some increase in rains in the western regions on Saturday.
Neeraj informs us that Nepal is still deficient in rains.
Kathmandu: Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Days will be cloudy at 29c. Evening thundershowers possible, with rain amounts being 10 mms.Total rain in September till date 44 mms.

City Forecasts:
Mumbai:
Friday 7th: Partly cloudy with 3/4 showers. Showers in some regions may be heavy and abrupt. Day may get warmer. Rain Amount: 15-20 mms.

Saturday 8th: Partly sunny with a few passing showers, varying indifferent parts. Rain Amount: 10-15 mms.

Sunday 9th: Partly sunny and hot day, with thunder clouds developing by evening. Few showers in some parts. Rain Amount: Upto 10 mms.

Pune:
 Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Warm days. Sunny with some clouds developing by evening. Light evening rain in some parts. 

Delhi NCR: 
Friday: Warm day with not much precipitation.

Saturday: Day starts getting cloudy gradually by evening. Distant lightning possible with showers in some parts.

Sunday: cloudy with heavy showers in many parts. Rainfall increasing on Sunday. Around 25 mms (avg). 

Chennai:
Friday: Partly cloudy. Humid and stuffy at night.

Saturday: Could see some eveing showers in some parts.

Sunday: Cloudy with increasing rains. Showers by evening in almost all areas. Rains may amount to 30 mms.

Hyderabad (India): No meaningfull rains in city next 3 days.

Pakistan:
Karachi sees rainfall decreasing after Friday, with no meningfull rains weekend.
Hyderabad (Pakistan): Cooler days on Saturday /Sunday. Increase in rainfall on Sunday. Sunday will see rainfall upto around 20 mms.
Sukkur: rains possible on Sunday.

33 comments:

GSB said...

Light on/off rains here in Thane. Total for today was 20 mm in the last 24 hrs. Total for the season stands at 1735 mm. Night time ,minimum temperature has started to drop to almost 24 ° c in the city and here at Godhbundar must be 22°c.

Tyrone said...

Karachi received good rains today evening starting at 4 pm with good CB clouds. Was very very dark and overcast. Got a heavy fall of rain and lightening at about 9 pm which lasted for about half an hour in my area

GSB said...

Tyrone, hi.... what has been the deficit overall of rainfall in Pakistan this monsoon. We have a 9% deficit here as of today...

Neeraj said...

yes sir,
Kathmandu, Nepal is as of today, 7 September,has not had enough rains for this monsoon season. In figures: rain till now for June July Aug Sept = 921.6 mm. September Average = 186.9 mms. But to get to monsoon (JJAS)average of 1125 mms, we need to have 250 mms of rain for Sept, which would be 33% more than sept average. Is that possible Rajesh ji ?

Abhijit Modak said...

I am observing that even if the UAC over the Arabian Sea off the Sindh coast is weakening by Friday but from Saturday onwards the remnant of it may travel towards east and may even reach Mumbai by Monday..

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur had sunny spells in intervals sometimes drizzles & sometimes brief medium to heavy spells.

So overall Badlapur records 25mms rain in past 24hrs.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am on 07-09-2012).

rajesh said...

abhijit: Sorry for late reply. Matheran total is 2963 mms till 6th

emkay said...

Gujarat stats for the rains given here
http://deshgujarat.com/2012/09/07/the-latest-situation-of-monsoon-in-gujaratdistrict-wiseregion-wise-in-figures/

Arpit Sharma said...

Weather today here in Ghaziabad is bit cloudy and windy.Thunderstorms can be possible towards late afternoon/evening.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Thank you very much for Matheran rain data. And from today morning it's very windy here in Badlapur from SSE and at times from SE direction also. So now UAC completely active over NW Arabian Sea that is South of Karachi !

venkatesh said...

From morning bangalore looks cloudy.But no rain yet.

Hi Pradeep,
Seems like there were rain in some parts of TN and Karnataka.

Can you please share the rainfall figures for TN and Karnataka

Tyrone said...

Hi GSB,

Sorry for the late reply.

Pakistan so far has received 42.5 percent less rains than it receives since beginning of July during the monsoon every year.

Punjab is the main beneficiary of the nature’s blessings, as it has received more rains during the period under report and faces the deficit of only 29.4 percent followed by Balochistan facing 34.2 percent deficit and Khyber Pakhtoonkhaw 42 percent deficit while Sindh is the worst sufferer, which has received only 9mm rain so far and faces 91 percent shortfall,

sset said...

Bangalore day 7 sept no rain.

sset said...

IMD maintains heavy to very rains over Konkan,Gujarat. Gujarat sept received maximum excellent rains.

Vidarbha - all districts above 1000mm - excellent rains.

Still south - interior KAR,TN, Kerala (below normal). Long--long wait.

Rajan Alexander said...

Hi SSET. The rain Gods apparently heard your complaint. We had a short heavy showers around 7.30 pm

sset said...

Rajan Sir, HAL airport side no rain, this short drizzle is of no use for extreme drought city is facing. Atleast you can understand - 5-10 years back sept used to be rainest season- but now yourself can see the difference.

sset said...

As long UACs along Bay keep crossing orissa,MP,Maha,Guj/Raj - South cannot expect any rains - nor can withdrawl of SWM happen.

Remember by this time 2011 - monsoon was becoming weak.

GSB said...

Tyrone,

First at the outset let me say that it feels great to chat with someone from Pakistan.

The monsoon has played truant in Saurashtra & Kutch and the same seems to be affecting Sindh also.

I do not know if you get any NEM rains but I hope and pray that area that have received less rainfall in both our countries have a good september rainfall.

Hope to chat with you more often!!

GSB said...

This week has been great for covering the deficit during this monsoon. Yesterday (ending 8.30am 07-09-2012) was the fifth above normal rainfall day this week i.e all the days Mon to Fri were above normal days.

CI again took the lead yesterday with 81% above normal rains. Gujarat and Saushtra & Kutch got 253% and 262% above normal rainfall. 8 of the 10 subdivisions in CI received excess rainfall. CI is now just 3% below normal. E&NEI and NWI are lagging behind with 15% and 13% deficits.

We also have two subdivisions now in the excess category for the season -- W.MP and Lakshwadeep.

Pradeep said...

Preliminary Rainfall till 7.30 am on 08.09.12 in mm in Chennai region so far from the biggest Thunder storm of the year 2012

Marina DGP Office - 69
Madhavaram - 68
Guindy - 54
Avadi - 51
Nungambakkam IMD (Chennai City)- 50
Nungambakkam Kea - 47
Taramani - 50
Ellapuram - 44
Ennore - 42
Kolapakkam - 30
Meenambakkam IMD (Chennai AP) - 30
Chemberabakkam - 28
Kadambathur - 28
Poondi Agro - 26
Poonamalle - 25
Sholinganallur - 25
Thiruvallur - 18
Sholingur - 18
Katupakkam - 12
Kancheepuram - 10
Kaveripakkam - 10
Katpadi - 10
RK Pet - 10

Pradeep said...

priliminary rainfall Karnataka ending 8.30 am 0n 08.09.12

in mm

Basgod 52.8
Kollur 40.2
Chittaguppa 40
Talacauvery 40
Vajrahalli 31.1
Bandal 31
Kottigehara 30.8
Kota 27.8
Balale 27.3
Balagannur 25
Jamgaon 24.4
Mulikar 24.2
Walakamadinni 24.2
Byakody 24
Manki 22.6
Gunji 21.8
Karatgi 19.6
Aluru 18
Aland 17
Bhemalkhed 16.2
Amasebail 15
Belthangadi 15
Maageri 15
Changler 14.2
Hulgod 13.2
Manhally 13.2
Hosakere 13
Rae 13
Sulepet 13
Madan Hippargi 12.2
Targod 11.8
Sarsamba 11.3
Halapura 11.3
Jalihal 11.2
Rajeshwar 11.2
Almatti 11.2
Hirebagewadi 11.1
Humnabad 11
Kamthana 11
Melkote 10.2
Tigadi 10.2
Hirebylu 10.1
Belagodu 10

rajesh said...

GSB: Glad you are interacting with Tyrone.He has patronised vagaries for more than 5 years now, but was "dull" last 2 months due to no rains in Sindh. Disappointed i guess.
Both of you are giving very good information to readers, Thanks.

rajesh said...

GSB: Tyrone and many are also active on FB vagaries..i dont remember you having joined the group....ping me on mail please

Tyrone said...

Thanks GSB, its my pleasure and I would love to keep in touch too. Thanks to Rajesh I have learned so much on the weather. But still a long long long way to go :)

Rajesh is right I was disappointed and lost hope as we did not receive any rains this monsoon during july/Aug and almost lost all hope until Sep. I love the monsoons. We do get some NEM rains somewhere in Dec but that is also not much.

The monsoon season especially July 20 - end Aug (and of late Sept) are the only two months that we get meaningful rains and where I can get to watch and study the weather.

GSB, which city are you from. I am from Karachi.

Tyrone said...

Light rains have again started this morning at 10 am in Karachi.

rajesh said...

Tyrone/GSB: Rains in winter for Karachi are mainly from WDs. Exceptionally, KHI may get rain from a system in the Arabian Sea.

Tyrone: Hope my estimate of reducing rains in KHI from Saturday goes wrong. Everybody needs rains -:)

Tyrone said...

Am hoping too Rajesh...:) So far its been raining since 10 am here and now it was quite heavy at times

Pavan said...

A bright sun shine with passing clouds from sw to nE waiting for dark clouds for enhanced brightness on our faces, I AM PRAYING FOR MR ANTARYAMI SAHU WHO IS MY NEIGHBOUR IN PUNE AND WITH TWO KIDS AND WIFE HERE IN PUNE ALONE LEFT TO HIS VLGE ON JHARKHAND WB BORDER DUE TO FLOODS HE IS STANDING ON HIS ROOF TOP FROM Y'DAY HOPE SOON HE COME OUT FROM THIS FURY

sset said...

Bangalore day 8 sept no rain.

Myself from Hindu newspaper managed to get information about rain measures in most places of south India. Some observations since june.

1. Interior Karnataka, AP has many places with rain < 100mm. Infact Marathwada (driest region of Maharashtra),Vidarbha has rain many time more than (avg 1000mm) Interior KAR,AP.

2. Bangalore,Mysore,Mandya,Bellary,Kolar and other places continue to remain dry - with rain since june,sept (suppose to rain - fails).

3. Amount of rains in Malnad has decreased considerably over years - Medikiri,Chikamaglur receiving less rains.

4. Other interesting fact is Kerala - once wet place has now strong negative standard deviation.

5. TN has many places with zero mm - only hope is ever mysterious NEM (if it happens).


Readers hold breadth till Rajesh sir opens palm scripts for NEM/withdrawl (Vedvyasa)

rajesh said...

Tyrone: in fact, i have a complain, you did not contact me on way to Goa..lol.
The chart you have put up shows ....wait...All have seen the chart. So, i presume all the viewers have grasped it. i'll see if somebody can answer that.Otherwise i,ll put up the answer tonite.
abhijit: System generally will not travel eastwards. Only if an impending WD crosses the northern regions, a system can move NE.Normally it is NW or W or N. An eastward curve is rare, and indicates a Wd or a westerly wave.

rajesh said...

Sorry, Tyrone's query was not put up.
I require an answer for this :
"Rajesh, in the attached chart what is the point over central india between the two lows marked like an x with arrows and also in the north east arabian sea?

What does it signify?

Thanks.
Chart is put up on inter active page


Tyrone said...

Thanks Rajesh.

Oh and btw when I went to Goa it was in 1979 and I didnt know you then :-)

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur had sunny spells in intervals sometimes drizzles & sometimes brief medium to heavy spells.

So overall Badlapur records 14mms rain in past 24hrs.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am on 08-09-2012).