Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Carbon Dioxide Snow is Falling on the Red Planet...See Space News Page on Vagaries

Yesterday's( Monday's) Forecast blog has been reproduced below with minor changes;

BB6 now over Upper Sindh as an UAC, embedded in the WD trough. So, as mentioned Monday, it has become stronger to an extent. Thick clouding is seen in the Southern quadrant in the impending (WD)trough. 
We also see a WD at sea level, also at 1000 mb. over the Kashmir region. With this system (WD) suddenly trooping eastwards in the Northern regions of Pakistan, with a distinct trough southwards from it. 
IMD Satellite image Super imposed by vagaries for easy reference.

                   


Yesterday's(Monday's) Blog stated: "But, by late Tuesday/Wednesday, the WD will pull the rain system along with it North-Eastwards. Due to the embedded low in the trough, there will be clouds drawing from the Arabian Sea towards the trough, and then pushing North-Eastwards into Kashmir, HP, Punjab, Haryana, North Rajasthan and Utteranchal by Wednesday". 
This happened on Tuesday, and has resulted in several thunderstorms in Karachi and interior Sindh on Tuesday.

Wednesday 12th: Some remaing moisture from Gujarat vortex that had formed today morning in the Gulf of Cambay (now disappeared), will still precipitate some rains in North Gujarat. Northern AP (Hyderabad) may get some rains.
As the rains diminish from Sindh, Northern regions of Pakistan including Punjab gets moderate rain. Rains push into Northern states of Kashmir, HP, Punjab and Haryana.

Delhi NCR may get some rains from evening/night.
Vidarbha and North AP, Konkan rains get weaker.

Thursday 13th: Monsoon axis moves Northwards.
Rains in Punjab,Haryana, Delhi NCR and HP.
Maharashtra will see isolated local rains in few places. No organised rainfall.

Nepal gets increasing rainfall from Thursday. Kathmandu may see more rainfall frequency from Thursday.

Thus, we see increasing rains in Delhi NCR on Wednesday evening and Thursday.
For the South, we wait for the trough to move closer to the coast.

Mumbai:
Wednesday: Partly cloudy/Sunny warm intervals in the day. A few passing showers, in different parts. Day temp will be around 30c. Rain Amount: 10-15 mms.
Thursday: Warm day, showers in the evening will total up to 10 mms.

Pune: Wednesday/Thursday: Cloudy with light drizzles. Rainfall upto 7-10 mms /day.

Surat
Wednesday/Thursday: cloudy with a few showers adding up to around 10 mms.



Latest Tuesday pics sent by Abhijit on Inter Active Page..

50 comments:

svt said...

Right Rajesh, no one predicted such heavy rains for today. Looking forward to see what caused such heavy rains. Btw as per MCGM site in last 12 hrs, Kurla got 90 mm, Goregaon 80 mm, Dadar 48 mm, Colaba 46mm.

Abhijit Modak said...

I have noticed many times in past years that in whole World Indian Monsoon is very difficult for predicating !! And in that too West coast rains are more unpredictable !

Now take this year's example only..

No one predicated Pune will get 100mm rains on 31st July !

Then we all were blaming that IOD is negative, MJO is weak so not much rains for first 15days of August month but right from South Konkan tip to full Karnataka coast & North Kerala received very heavy rains from 1 Aug to 7th August period..

Mr. Pradeep already shared very Heavy rains figure of coastal Karnataka of August full week rain by saying From Drought to Flood situation..

Tuesday, August 07, 2012 Post on Vagaries saying "Massive Rains in Karnataka (Drought to Floods within 3 days)...From Pradeep "

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur had heavy Rains with some thunder in Morning period till 11am. Then Just cloudy with sun out between and few spells in between.
Then from Today early morning 3am steady medium rains..


So overall Badlapur records 50mms rain in past 24hrs.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am on 11-09-2012).

Anonymous said...

looks like rains r likely to continue till evening, in and around mumbai. steady heavy showers right from early morning. very pleasant weather .

Anonymous said...

looks like some places in mumbai will see more then 100 mm of rain in 24 hrs

emkay said...

Rajesh, you have to make allowances for 1 or 2 failures in prediction every season :) This one is a specific case !! Love it when Nature laughs at us mere mortals !!

Still waiting for your analysis of the morning event. Things looking up by 10 AM though it seems on and off rains will continue.

rajesh said...

emkay:I had predicted heavy rains for Mumbai in the Sunday 9th Evening post on Current weather (highlighted). But, yesterday i went back on it, so cannot claim credit for it..
Hope , after this spell, Tuesday Mumbai reverts to my forecast put up yesterday.. lol

Anonymous said...

We are all awaiting the analysis of what happened

Abhijit Modak said...

Some rain data around Mumbai in North Konkan region ending today at 8.30am. Khalapur 107mm, Wada 103mm, Shahapur 100mm, Panvel 80mm, Karjat 72mm, Thane 64mm, Vasai 55mm, Badlapur(own measured) 50mm, Murbad 44mm, Alibaug 42mm, Ulhasnagar 33mm, Kalyan 32mm, Ambernath 24mm.

Tyrone said...

Very dark and overcast here in Karachi. Clouds seem to be coming in from the South west.

NT said...

Rajeshbhai, thanks for the clarification on the heavy rains in Mumbai. What is the forecast now - does it hold for later part of the day and for tomorrow / day after or will it be different?

Anonymous said...

wha

Anonymous said...

what is your next few days forecast for mumbai or is it same u posted yesterday.

Tyrone said...

Light rains have started now in KHI. Its very dark and overcast. Clouding can been seen on satellite near Khi (Sindh)

Tyrone said...

Very heavy downpour started simultaneously now following light rains here in Karachi covering vast area as reported by my contacts in different areas

Anonymous said...

rains likely to continue in mumbai
for tommorow

Vivek said...

Hi,

An article on weather forecasting in that may be of interest. The title is, "The Weatherman is Not a Moron"

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/09/magazine/the-weatherman-is-not-a-moron.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

Anonymous said...

Hi SSET,

this article might be of interest to you: It provides a farmer's version of declining rains in and around bangalore and the ways he is coping against it .

http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/karnatakas-farmers-look-for-answers-to-dry-times

Regards, Ananth

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Thank you very much for explanation of what happen and posting mine snap on Vagaries blog.

I was thinking for west coast trough strengthening from Kutch Coast till North Konkan so I made yesterday's predication on previous blog and did not see WD interfering so not taken for assumpution .

And now satellite image too showing Clouding has formed south of Karachi again over NW Arabian Sea off Sindh/Kutch coastal area..(may be BB6 clouding may have not come down) but new clouding formation has taken place.. And might be remain strong over Sea till Wednesday..

Also said adjoining Kutch & Saurashtra & Gujarat will get scattered rains till Friday so it will happen.

And also said North Konkan will get occasional rains in intervals till Friday ranging from 20mm to 70mm.. So staying on it.

Wednesday/Thursday might be getting less rain for North Konkan so set an frame ranging from 20mm to 70mm and so mentioned might be in intervals too..

GSB said...

Last week 6 out of 7 days were above normal and this week already 2 out of 2!! Let's keep our fingers crossed. Yesterday (ending 8.30am today) CI received 99% above normal rainfall and 8 of the 10 subdivisions received excess rains.

All India deficit stands maintained at 8%.

Abhijit Modak said...

Today(11-09-2012) ending 8.30am, IMD's and Dept of Agriculture, Maharashtra Rainfall data is varying a lot !

IMD's Rain Data(Left side) & Dept of Agriculture, Maharashtra Rainfall data(right side) in mms

Palghar 100 & 51
Kalyan 90 & 32
Ulhasnagar 90 & 33
Matheran 90
Thane 90 & 64
Karjat 90 & 72
Ambernath 80 & 24
Bhiwandi 80 & 37
Khalapur 80 & 107
Murbad 80 & 44
Uran 80 & 25
Vasai 80 & 55
Sahapur 80 & 100
Panvel 70 & 80
Wada 60 & 103
Alibag 50 & 42

Seeing for first time variations in Rainfall data of IMD's and Dept of Agriculture, Maharashtra !

sset said...

Bangalore day 11 sep NO RAIN - VERY HOT.

Bangalore call for desrtification was predicted 5years back. Sad part is Bangalore weather division,IISC,ISRO.. and others have not reacted to this. If next year this continues then IT itself will vanish...no water.


Myself feel NEM currents over past few years are becoming weak - negligible rains over interior KAR.

Rajisthan/Kutch/Gujarat has below normal 2012 summmer temperatures but have received excellent SWM rains.

Anonymous said...

no doubt bangalore is going towards desertification , i m excited to see our new indian desert .wow.

Anonymous said...

Super excited - A desert in Southern India. Wow. Look forward to it. Hope it happens very soon.

rajesh said...

abhijit:there are always "way out" differences in the readings withe IMD and agri or dist rainfall guages...needs a lot of explanation.
But, with experiance, when you find a difference, take IMD as correct...

Anonymous said...

since sset have come on this blog i can only hear from him is abt bangalore is turning into a desert, so let it happen as soon as possible we want to see bangalore turn into a complete arid desert, with no greenery anywhere.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. I am observing Rainfall data of IMD & Agri both since June, both of them rain data would be same everyday.. only yesterday I noticed variation so raised an doubt!

And as per latest satellite of today morning still which I predicated that clouding will seen in Lower SE Sindh/Kutch border till Wednesday and current image also showing clouding off Sindh/Kutch border in NW Arabian Sea. So scattered Rain/Thundershowers will continue n Kutch, Suarashtra & Gujarat region till Friday.

Anonymous said...

seriously we must speak to the bangalore karnatak goverment , to change entire bangalore into a forest , may be then sset will be happy, if not turn into a desert.this will certainly make him happy. but plz do something.or throw him out bangalore.the best option.

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur had Medium Rain in Morning period till 11am. Then Just overcast with light drizzles to drops till evening and night had some open sky with stars were visible then today early morning some drizzles noted.

So overall Badlapur records 15mms rain in past 24hrs.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am on 12-09-2012).

Tyrone said...

Rajesh or anyone else, can you pls tell me on which chart I can observe the WD?

Tyrone said...

The current spell produced unprecedented rains in Southern Punjab, Sindh and eastern parts of balochistan in last 5 days. The chief amounts of recorded rainfall in last 5 days are:

Jaccoababad 481 mmn
Khanpur 291 mm
Rahim Yar Khan 236 mm
Larkana 215 mm
Sukkar 206 mm
Shorkot 152 mm
Chhor 137 mm
Multan 136 mm
Toba Tak Singh 130 mm
Mithi 121 mm
Dera Ghazi Khan 120 mm
Badin 108 mm
Sahiwal 107 mm
Okara 103 mm
Hyderabad 90 mm
Dadu 90 mm

Tyrone said...

Source PMD (pakmet)

Arpit Sharma said...

Absolutely blue sky here in ghaziabad.Lets wait for the evening and see what happens.

rajesh said...

Tyrone: Thanks for the rainfall figures.
Interpreting a WD from a chart need reading the trough with practice and individual judgement trhu years of charting and explanations.
anyway, now you may see the trough and WD aloft on these 2 sites at least. Different charts and maps of various models vary on the same date and time...we have to interpret it thru own reading and knowledge of your regional weather...

http://www.tmd.go.th/programs%5Cuploads%5Cmaps%5C2012-09-12_TopChart_07.jpg

http://www.pmd.gov.pk/Subpage1/avn/index.html

Anonymous said...

Nice bright day in Mumbai after a long time. It's hot though, but the sun is welcome.

Tyrone said...

Heavy downpour here in KHI since last 15 mins but nothing on the infra red satellite.

Tyrone said...

Thank you Rajesh for the explanation

Vivek said...

Sir still sunny and warm in Delhi. Will report in the evening.

GSB said...

Finally made it to Shirdi., cloudy (light grey) .. no rain. No rain on the way last night also from Thane also.

Rajesh sir/Abhijit... are we looking at a few sunny days in Mumbai and extended suburbs?

GSB said...

Tyrone, it's good to see the monsoon making up a bit in these last few days in your part of the world... hope the WD and embedded UAC makes it possible for a few more such rainy days.

Anonymous said...

rains will be back in mumbai tommorow, lets enjoy the suny spell for today

Vivek said...

Sudden very heavy downpour in Gurgaon just now

rajesh said...

vivek:Thanks for the feedback...Gurgaon, Faridabad seem to have some showers, but more rain seen in Dayalpur areas...

GSB: Hope you get proper "Darshan" and pray for all of us...Have put up wed/thurs forecast last night..

Tyrone said...

Thanks GSB. Yes I agree with you. Rain is never enough :)

Anonymous said...

AMAZING PICTURES RAJESH, ON MARS CARBON SNOWFALL

Tyrone said...

Raining since past one hour now in Karachi.

Arpit Sharma said...

As rajesh sir predicted,heavy rains lashed Ghaziabad after 5 days but the weather has become more humid now.

Arpit Sharma said...

Total rain amount should be around 50mms

rajesh said...

Arprit/Vivek: Some rainfall from Delhi NCR on Wednesday. Pitampura got 45 mms, Ujha 34 mms, Mungesgpur 22 mms, New Delhi SJung 7 mms

Tyrone said...

Y'days rains were moderate but for a good 3 hours in KHI starting 6 pm