Sunday, September 16, 2012

Current Weather Scenario as on Sunday 16th, Night:

Monsoon Axis: Very much North into the Himalayan foothills. Runs from absolute Northern Punjab (Pakistan), thru Indian Punjab, hugging the UP/Nepal border and then going SE via W.Bengal into the Bay.A trough aloft at 850 hpa runs from Utteranchal thru Nepal to Himalayan W.Bengal.
The West coast off shore trough is weak and unorganized.

Observations of SWM withdrawal Indicators: The seasonal low "core" in Sindh is expected to rise to a minimum level of 1000 mb from the current 998 mb. 
The core is seen getting weaker. The UTH is also seen as diminishing in Sindh region. (See  below)
Westerly jet streams picking up around 30N line.

Weather Forecast for Monday, 17th/Tuesday, 18th/Wednesday, 19th: 

The west coast trough remains weak. The East coast trough,on the other hand strengthens a bit and moves closer to the North AP/Tamil Nadu coast.

And, on Tuesday, or Wednesday, an UAC can form in the Northern Bay. Unlike normal Monsoon situation, this UAC should move inland into Orissa, and subsequently move N/NW into Jharkhand and adjoining Bengal.
Reason ? A WD , will be moving across the Kashmir and HP states on Monday thru Tuesday.

Rainfall for Monday, 17th/Tuesday, 18th/Wednesday, 19th: 

Of-course heavy in Kashmir and HP, and Northern UP. Northern most regions of Pakistan can get heavy rains. 
Moderate rains in Punjab (Pakistan and India). Moderate rains in Utteranhal. 

For Delhi NCR, moderate thunder and rainfall (between 10-30 mms) in most of the regions, on Tuesday 18th and Wednesday, 19th. 

Nepal gets continues good rainfall till Tuesday, and decreasing from Wednesday. Again, Sunday Kathmandu saw another 31 mms, taking the September total to 418 mms.

UAC brings heavy rainfall on Tuesday into Orissa and Jharkand.

Tuesday/Wednesday could bring some showers to Nagpur.

Monsoon remains weak over the Gujarat, west coast and interior Maharashtra and Karnataka. 

Thundershowers likely to pop up around the Southern coastal AP and adjoining coastal TamilNadu.

Monday/Tuesday: Sunny with cloudy intervals. Couple of showers in some parts, with rain amount 7-10 mms. Day warm at 31c.
Wednesday morning will be misty in the suburbs and outer areas. Day remains sunny with partly cloud covered sky in the evening. A shower possible . Day wil be warm at 31c.

Pune: Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday: Partly cloudy days, with light rain in some selected areas. wednesday will be dry. Misty mornings on Tuesday and wednesday. Warm in the day time around 30c. 

Weekly analysis from GSB on Inter Active Page...Please see


GSB said...

16/9/2012 ----------- 764 MM (-7%)
09/9/2012 ----------- 708 MM (-9%)

min 700mm --- ACHEIVED ON 08/9/2012

Average 900mm ------ 9.71 mm p/d

CURRENT RAINFALL is 7.07 mm p/d

A & N ISLAND ---------- 350.4 mm
SHWB & SIKKIM --------- 211.7 mm
ARUNACHAL PRADESH ----- 152.5 mm
KONKAN & GOA ---------- 132.5 mm
EAST U.P -------------- 122.6 mm

MARATHWADA ------------- 21.4 mm
S.I.KARNATAKA ---------- 16.9 mm
TN & PONDICHERRY ------- 16.9 mm
N.I KARNATAKA ----------- 8.4 mm
RAYALSEEMA -------------- 2.1 mm

Total ABOVE AVG days this week ------ 7

Total ABOVE AVG days
this season ---------------------- 36 (33%)

Total BELOW AVG days
this season ---------------------- 72 (67%)

COASTAL KARNATAKA --------- 3048 mm
KONKAN & GOA -------------- 2783 mm
SHWB & SIKKIM ------------- 1902 mm
A & N ISLAND -------------- 1756 mm
ARUNACHAL PR. ------------- 1527 mm

SAURASHTRA & KUTCH --------- 294 mm
WEST RAJASTHAN ------------- 294 mm
HAR.CH & DELHI ------------- 273 mm
PUNJAB --------------------- 231 mm
TN & PONDICHERRY ----------- 201 mm

Data from IMD. Any errors pls
point this out to me

Neeraj said...

Please include the analysis and forecast for Nepal too. Here in Kathmandu Nepal, till now, 419 mm rain for the month of sept, against a normal of 200mm, double of the average rainfall and more than half of the month still remaining. both monsoon average and yearly average exceeded.unusual for September to be this rainy.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir.Looking like as if from Wednesday that is from 19th of Sept onwards Konkan rains almost stopping till 22 Sept ! As not looking any activity happening now !

So can localized convection rains from thunder heads can possible in this period for Konkan region ? Or for Thunder heads to get develop also requires any activities in weather !

Arpit Sharma said...
May be a good news for southern india.

Rajesh said...

GSB: Great work...its an added attraction for Vagaries...and now Neeraj wants Nepal too...more demand for your works !
GSB, contact me on mail...

Rajesh said...

abhijit: Seems you are going totally on the COLA forecast ..-:)
I have a small doubt on the mid week scene for Konkan..
and, the thundershowers question: The actual localised thundershowers , which form on a retreating monsoon do not need any fact, with a system, the "withdrawal" thundershowers vanish.The withdrawal thunder activity starts when the SWm current starts its retreat. That is when the conditions in the NW are achieved. That pushes the axis down, and the sudden change in winds causes violent storms. I shall put up today ay nite the scenario as per my analysis..may get a bit late..

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Thank you very much for explanation..

Yes, I had seen COLA and other few models too but not seen much activity till 21 Sept at least ! So raised an doubt and wanted your reviews on it Sir..

And I had seen very violent thunder storms in last week of September till mid October period in which lightening strike (grounding) are more here in Badlapur area.

And also seen Coconut tree & other trees burning after lightening strike on it and many people's TV & Fridge getting damage while thunderstorm event & even some death reports are also heard.

So one thing is observed that post monsoon thunderstorm are very violent..

And pre monsoon thunderstorm are not such violent & sometimes even thunder event are missed as directly monsoon arrives !

Arpit Sharma said...

Here in Delhi-NCR,thunderstorms are always very much violent except the monsoon season.These kind of thunderstorms produce very less rain and even continues upto 4-5 hours.

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur was partly cloudy with mostly sunny. Just few passing light showers in noon period and then at today early morning period.

So overall Badlapur records 3mms rain in past 24hrs.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am on 17-09-2012).

NT said...

Severe thunderstorms and lightning are a topic I like, these phenomena invoke awe, fear and admiration of nature's power.

I agree with Abhijit, post Monsoonal Thunderstorms in and around Mumbai have always been more severe (damaging life and property as pointed out) as compared to pre-monsoon or monsoon thunderstorms.

I clearly recall a thunderstorm while driving from Shirdi couple of years back in October - after I had crossed the Kasara ghat on my way back. Torrential rain, continuous cloud to ground lightning towards the left of the road and ear-splitting thunder. Some storm.

NT said...

Rajeshbhai, I was looking at the Forecast Meteogram for Mumbai and noticed that the Lifted Index is being forecasted to turn positive from 20th September onwards till 25th September indicating stable conditions and therefore little likely hood of thunderstorms over Mumbai in that period

Arpit Sharma said...

Drizzled in the morning here in Ghaziabad,then very light rain at around 2pm(noida might have received more rain)and now very heavy cloud cover in the western side,heavy rain can occur if it moves towards east.

Arpit Sharma said...

Raining heavily in northeastern side of my home.Here conditions are cloudy but i could see the clouds moving away accompanied with cool winds.

Neeraj said...

Ok. Today 17th sept, min temp 19.5, max temp 20.5 and 45 mms of rain, cloudy all day. and according to our met dept, the current wet spell started on 11 sept and 368 mms of rain has fallen in this period. impressive. September is set to be the wettest month of 2012 for Kathmandu, Nepal.

RK said...

From morning 8 am till 5pm evening there were on and off rain showers at Greater Noida. Some heavy...some light.. and also sun came out in between for some should be somewhere around 30-40 mms...

GSB said...

NWI is fast making up for what it lost in the initial monsoon phase. Yesterday (till 8.30am today)NWI received 260% above normal rainfall. Punjab got 1427% excess and HP got 474%. The other notable subdivisions all India were..

Bihar +442%
Uttarakhand +388%
J & K +381%
A & N island +356%

All India the deficit is now reduced to 6%.

Rajesh said...

NT:Seeing the indicators of SWM withdrawal, and reversal of winds, i see thundershowers in Mumbai around 23rd-25th September.
It may not indicate in the LI being local events.
of-course, i shall elaborate later in vagaries.

Posted 31st Night: Mumbai weather expected this week in city. 1st Feb - 4th February  Windy evenings, Hazy warm days and just about comfort...