Current Weather Scenario as on Sunday 16th, Night:
Monsoon Axis: Very much North into the Himalayan foothills. Runs from absolute Northern Punjab (Pakistan), thru Indian Punjab, hugging the UP/Nepal border and then going SE via W.Bengal into the Bay.A trough aloft at 850 hpa runs from Utteranchal thru Nepal to Himalayan W.Bengal.
The West coast off shore trough is weak and unorganized.
Observations of SWM withdrawal Indicators: The seasonal low "core" in Sindh is expected to rise to a minimum level of 1000 mb from the current 998 mb.
The core is seen getting weaker. The UTH is also seen as diminishing in Sindh region. (See below)
Westerly jet streams picking up around 30N line.
Weather Forecast for Monday, 17th/Tuesday, 18th/Wednesday, 19th:
The west coast trough remains weak. The East coast trough,on the other hand strengthens a bit and moves closer to the North AP/Tamil Nadu coast.
And, on Tuesday, or Wednesday, an UAC can form in the Northern Bay. Unlike normal Monsoon situation, this UAC should move inland into Orissa, and subsequently move N/NW into Jharkhand and adjoining Bengal.
Reason ? A WD , will be moving across the Kashmir and HP states on Monday thru Tuesday.
Rainfall for Monday, 17th/Tuesday, 18th/Wednesday, 19th:
Of-course heavy in Kashmir and HP, and Northern UP. Northern most regions of Pakistan can get heavy rains.
Moderate rains in Punjab (Pakistan and India). Moderate rains in Utteranhal.
For Delhi NCR, moderate thunder and rainfall (between 10-30 mms) in most of the regions, on Tuesday 18th and Wednesday, 19th.
Nepal gets continues good rainfall till Tuesday, and decreasing from Wednesday. Again, Sunday Kathmandu saw another 31 mms, taking the September total to 418 mms.
UAC brings heavy rainfall on Tuesday into Orissa and Jharkand.
Tuesday/Wednesday could bring some showers to Nagpur.
Monsoon remains weak over the Gujarat, west coast and interior Maharashtra and Karnataka.
Thundershowers likely to pop up around the Southern coastal AP and adjoining coastal TamilNadu.
Monday/Tuesday: Sunny with cloudy intervals. Couple of showers in some parts, with rain amount 7-10 mms. Day warm at 31c.
Wednesday morning will be misty in the suburbs and outer areas. Day remains sunny with partly cloud covered sky in the evening. A shower possible . Day wil be warm at 31c.
Pune: Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday: Partly cloudy days, with light rain in some selected areas. wednesday will be dry. Misty mornings on Tuesday and wednesday. Warm in the day time around 30c.
Weekly analysis from GSB on Inter Active Page...Please see