Sunday, September 30, 2012

BB7 moves slightly West, and on Sunday morning was situated at 84E and 15.5N. And was at 1006 mb. Satellite image of 06.30Z  depicts the centre very clearly and prominently.

UAC in the Arabian Sea has descended to a lower level and is off the Goa/Karnataka coast.
Trough aloft connecting these 2 systems has strengthened as both are still "alive" and active. Clouding seen in Peninsula is due to the trough.
Clouding below the axis down into South peninsula is seen along the "line of dis-continuity".

The "Region A" , an area "created" by vagaries to depict the inter-action region where the monsoon axis and the wind dis-continuity vertical line meet is now covering Maharashtra.

Mumbai: From 12.15 pm Sunday, Small cumulus clouds, are popping up in the East and can be seen "pinkish" tints...pressure in the morning was 1009 mb today...

30 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi rajesh ,here at palghar small thunderheads have started to form. waiting to see its further development.


bipin sharma

Anonymous said...

Yes Bipin here too in dadar small thunderheads have developed .need to wait n see wht lies ahead in the evening.

preeti

rajesh said...

Bipin/Preeti: technically they are just cumulus now,at this stage. They "officially" become thunderheads when they develop vertically, and create 2 levels within a cloud. Then, there are 2 charges at the bottom and top of the cloud, producing lightning. The top, is at -30 to -60c, and composed of ice crystals.good thremals, falling pressure (instabilty) and of course good CAPE needed...
just explaining...

Anonymous said...

PREETI LOOKS LIKE THE UAC IS LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAINS IN MUMBAI THIS WEEK.


ARUN PHADNIS

rajesh said...

these potential "pinkish" or copper tinted, indicating good potential of electric charges.. on developing

Puneet Bangera said...

Here, the temperature is rising.Thane recorded 35.4 C at 2:01p. I think this is the highest temperature recorded in the month of september.

rajesh said...

s'cruz touches 35c, humidity 41 %, and vagaries touched 33.2c humidity 67%.

Anonymous said...

THANKS RAJESH SIR FOR THE EXPLANATION


BIPIN

emkay said...

weathermen twitter is predicting crossing into land tomorrow abd BB7 tracking to N NW Maharashtra !!

Anonymous said...

WE WILL BE SEEING REAL ACTIVITY FROM EVENING ONWARDS THROUGHOUT MAHARASHTRA, GOA

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur max was touched to 34 C. But now at 32 C at 3.40pm. Now totally overcast from east side but no thundery heads yet here!! Snaps of clouds type on Vagaries FB. Even cool breeze blowing from ENE side.

emkay said...

its getting cloudy now in Panvel as sun takes a breather

Pavan said...

reports from many places in karnataka of a thunderstorm with heavy lightinng gadag recorded 80mm of rain in just two hours and many placrs are flooded

Anonymous said...

Rajesh sir , the entire sky here at palghar is packed with clouds is this thundercloud.


bipin.

Anonymous said...

wht i meant rajesh sir is that ,the clouds dont look like thunderclouds but they like a blanket spread all over but they look thick.


bipin

rajesh said...

The current cloud cover over the Mumbai area is that of alto-stratus and alto cumulus combined. The cover is flat, and clouds have no height at all. This may e only drizzles in patches.
This formation can lead to rainfall only if they are "thickened" with the quick formation of cumulus and cumulo-nimbus clouds.
we have to observe whether the thickening is uniformly spread out, and not in patches...a slight "opening "up will show less chances of rain.As the atmosphere tends to get stable.
Another hope would be a drifting of a nearby thunderhead..for that now we will have to observe on doppler, as the sky is covered.

NT said...

The breeze here at Juhu has picked up - providing relief, the sky is cloudy so as Rajeshbhai has mentioned cannot see at this point if there are any CBs around.

Rajeshbhai, what is your analysis for the coming week?

rajesh said...

on my way now to the observatory to meet a friend ..and then back to see the cricket...shall take up posting current situation and next weeks estimate after the cricket..so maybe by ...11.30 IST...

sset said...

bangalore - saturday - 5mm
sunday - 10mm
almost like glucose IV drips.
Myself was expecting 200mm - 300m in 2 days.

Total rain since june -
Bangalore is only 300mm.
Mysore,Mandya - 150mm
Looks like Mysore is now DRIEST CITY OF INDIA, FOLLOWED BY BANGALORE. END OF SWM.

junaid said...

@rajesh,@plz post ur week forecast,,am eagerly waiting for it!!

Pavan said...

started drizzling at hadapsar eastern pune steady drizzles with no thunder and lightning

Anonymous said...

@sset
Many cities in NWI has not got upto 500mm this season and the rainy season is over there.Bangalore is going to get good rain in the next two weeks.Stop saying that bangalore is going to be desert,entire NW will first become desert.Come on stay here in NW then you will find how does a desert looks!

Pavan said...

it started lashing very heavily in pune hope it continues wooooooooooooooooo at last the last day made it

salil said...

Just got a call from my sister from pimpri its raining heavily with thunder and Lightning. When will it happen in Mumbai we are getting soaked in sweat its tooo hot.

Anonymous said...

Mumbai will get thunderstorm on 2nd and 3rd october.After 3rd adieu to monsoon.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Salil.. Yes very Hot today..At moment 9pm but Badlapur having 29 C temp outside. And Humidity is 75%. No winds & No Breeze at all!! All quite here..
So whether this is an calmness before of Thunderstorm approaching !!
Have to wait and watch what is stored in late night period !!

Anonymous said...

yes abhijit its very still here and very humid at the moment ,making things very uncomfortable, there is slight lightning in eastern side, hope we have a thunderstorm late night.

thanks preeti

junaid said...

@abhijit nd preeti!! The weather is terrible ryt now at panvel also,,its hot nd humid

Abhijit Modak said...

Lightening started in SE direction of Badlapur..Still very uncomfartable here. No breeze. Temp outside is at 11.20pm is 29 C !! 29 C temp stable right from 7pm till now. Very sweaty here. Looking like as if May end/ Early June conditions !

Tyrone said...

Rajesh how can you tell when a UAC descends to a lower level? Can u briefly explain pls...... thanks