SW Monsoon Withdrawal Watch and Indicators:...posted on Tuesday @10.30pm
Seasonal Low pressure over Sindh Pakistan rises to 1004 mb, and weak anti-cyclone formation seen over the region.
Substantial drop in water vapour and humidity levels seen from satellite images over the Sindh region.
UTH also shows a progressive drop.
By tomorrow, we can expect an anti-cyclone, that is high pressure area to form at 850 hpa level over Central Sindh region.
200 jet streams are yet flowing from the SE into the NW regions of the sub-continent.
Vagaries expects the SWM to retreat from South/Central and Upper Sindh regions of Pakistan from Morning Thursday,20th September.
The WD has moved away from the Indian Sub-Continent. Hence, the regions under its influence shall see a drastic decrease in rainfall.
Pahalgam and Gulmarg in Kashmir saw heavy rains amounting to 48 mms and 39 mms bringing down the night low to 4.5c in Gulmarg.
Meanwhile, it may be recalled, that vagaries had predicted an UAC from the Bay to move N/NE due to this WD. Well, the UAC has crossed Orissa coast, and as expected, moved North into Jharkhand as on Tuesday evening. Heavy rainfall is expected in the region, but the system weakens fast.
The west coast trough has weakened even further, and shows negligible prominence.
General Forecast for Mon/Tue/Wed is going well as per schedule, and remains unchanged.
Presuming the withdrawal progresses as per the normal routine from Wednesday, starting from Sindh, we can expect Thundershowers in Mumbai from 25th September, and withdrawal process moves "normally", we can expect the monsoon to withdraw from Mumbai around 10th October.
Pradeep's Rainfall toppers as on 15th September are are a bit late and is being compiled....Shall be on Vagaries by 20th Morning..
City Report as on 4.30 pm Tuesday:
New Delhi is cloudy with light rains in the afternoon, with the high at 30c. GK2 private station measured just about 1 mm till 4 pm.
Mumbai, Vagaries station recorded a high of 32c today...hot and stuffy, with very few clouds.
Kathmandu: Light drizzles in the day with just about 2 mms in the day. But a late afternoon drizzle brought the temperature down to 19c from a high of 23c in the day.
Karachi is cloudy in parts with the day stuffy and hot at 35c..