Tuesday, September 18, 2012


SW Monsoon Withdrawal Watch and Indicators:...posted on Tuesday @10.30pm

Seasonal Low pressure over Sindh Pakistan rises to 1004 mb, and weak anti-cyclone formation seen over the region.
Substantial drop in water vapour and humidity levels seen from satellite images over the Sindh region. 
UTH also shows a progressive drop. 
By tomorrow, we can expect an anti-cyclone, that is high pressure area to form at 850 hpa level over Central Sindh region. 
200 jet streams are yet flowing from the SE into the NW regions of the sub-continent.

Vagaries expects the SWM to retreat from South/Central and Upper Sindh regions of Pakistan from Morning Thursday,20th September.

The WD has moved away from the Indian Sub-Continent. Hence, the regions under its influence shall see a drastic decrease in rainfall. 
Pahalgam and Gulmarg in Kashmir saw heavy rains amounting to 48 mms and 39 mms bringing down the night low to 4.5c in Gulmarg.

Meanwhile, it may be recalled, that vagaries had predicted an UAC from the Bay to move N/NE due to this WD. Well, the UAC has crossed Orissa coast, and as expected, moved North into Jharkhand as on Tuesday evening. Heavy rainfall is expected in the region, but the system weakens fast.

The west coast trough has weakened even further, and shows negligible prominence.

General Forecast for Mon/Tue/Wed is going well as per schedule, and remains unchanged.

Mumbai:
Presuming the withdrawal progresses as per the normal routine from Wednesday, starting from Sindh, we can expect Thundershowers in Mumbai from 25th September, and withdrawal process moves "normally", we can expect the monsoon to withdraw from Mumbai around 10th October.



Pradeep's Rainfall toppers as on 15th September are are a bit late and is being compiled....Shall be on Vagaries by 20th Morning..

City Report as on 4.30 pm Tuesday:

New Delhi is cloudy with light rains in the afternoon, with the high at 30c. GK2 private station measured just about 1 mm till 4 pm.

Mumbai, Vagaries station recorded a high of 32c today...hot and stuffy, with very few clouds.

Kathmandu:  Light drizzles in the day with just about 2 mms in the day. But a late afternoon drizzle brought the temperature down to 19c from a high of 23c in the day. 

Karachi is cloudy in parts with the day stuffy and hot at 35c..

34 comments:

Arpit Sharma said...

There are heavy clouds all throughout the day here in Ghaziabad but only traces till now.Rain is not that much widespread and heavy as expected.

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur is having dark cloudy overcast with thick drops drizzles since last 2hrs with temp 27 d C and cool pleasent condition. Rain amount just 3mm in last 2hrs.

Arpit Sharma said...

Suddenly a very violent has approached here,its thundering here with very huge sound,seems now its going to rain heavily.

Abhijit Modak said...

Before 2pm max temp was 30 C in Badlapur with one heavy spell noted at 11am. From 2pm sky turn dark cloudy from west with some windy initially then steady drizzling started till 4.30pm.

Arpit Sharma said...

Now raining with thunder

Anonymous said...

sky has turned dark n gloomy here at bhyandar, lets see if it rains.
akshay

Arpit Sharma said...

Rain has stopped now,it started at correct 5 and continued for 45minutes.Rain was of medium intensity.Total should be around 15mms.

Tyrone said...

Rajesh, Very hot and stuffy here in karachi....are the clouds due to moisture from the arabian sea?

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur is having drizzles at moment with misty conditions as dark clouds are at very low levels around just 400ft height.. And low dark clouds are coming from SE directions with slighty windy also from SE side.

junaid said...

panvel received a very heavy shower todaay at 10 pm,,for 15 mnts,,th rain rate was very high!! But after that shower,,the day was mostly cloudy,,nd it felt very muggy,,but then the clouds cleared up by 3 pm ,,nd it was mostly sunny,,just half hour again a passing shower of moderate intensity came for 5 mnts!!@rajesh the off shore trough along the west coast is still thr??as all these passing showers wer frm normal monsoonish clouds,,but the direction of the clouds were north-north west!!

Abhijit Modak said...

Here Badlapur had on/off drizzles continues from 2pm onwards no sun seen after 2pm onwards. Evening 8pm & 9.30pm had brief heavy spells. Evening spells were from SE side. At moment too misty as all clouds are at low levels. Current temp is 24 C here.

GSB said...

NWI is trying to go out with a bang !! Yesterday (ending 8.3am today) NWI received 21.6mm against normal of 2.2mm an excess of 892% for the entire zone !!

Notable subdivisions in NWI..

H.P +1833%
J&K +1573%
EAST UP +1261%
PUNJAB +827%

NWI deficit narrows further to 4% and is now cloe to that of CI which is at 2%.

All India deficit is maintained at 6%.

Anonymous said...

Click the link to know where its raining.Just put the city name after the link.
http://isitraining.in/

Abhijit Modak said...

Today morning Badlapur having foggy conditions with min temp came down to 23 C here. And as I mentioned yesterday that thunderstorm may develop from around 20 Sept. So today might thunder heads may develop as at present high level white clouds are coming from ESE direction.

Arpit Sharma said...

Conditions of badlapur at 7:09am http://isitraining.in/badlapur

Arpit Sharma said...

Good site showing small towns,cities etc.

Neeraj said...

Kathmandu, Nepal: Cloudy, yesterday 18th and this 19th morning with low at 18 C. The highs for the past few days have been lower than normal.Has the latest WD got anything to do with this slight drop in the temperature? and i expect the day's highs to rise a bit and morning's lows to decrease a bit once this cloud cover lifts.

pavan said...

HAPPY GANESH CHATURTHI TO RAJESH SIR AND THE READERS OF THIS BLOG,
Todayi came to dharwad in karnataka i think winter started in karnataka as many places recording below normal temperature madikeri 14.9 deg, chickmaglur15.5, chamrajnagaar 17.5 and dharwad 18 deg celcius its biting

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur had mix conditions with morning received heavy spell then become muggy upto 2pm then sudden dark clouds appear and drizzling started which continued till late evening and also some heavy spells in between were noted. So overall Badlapur records 16mms rain in past 24hrs.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am on 19-09-2012).

Saurabh said...

It seems the monsoon is going to withdraw rapidly now. There has been a lot of discussion about the late withdrawal of monsoon in the last few years. That is indeed true but the other important feature is that in the last few years it has withdrawn much more rapidly at least from north India. So instead of taking almost a month to withdraw from north India (1st September to 1st October) it takes less than 10 days now and ends up withdrawing from some parts of north India right on time.

KEA Weather said...

IMD says withdrawal to commence from 24th September and it will be at a rapid phase and would cover almost the entire country except East by month end.

rajesh said...

Wishing All Vagaries Readers a HAPPY GANESH CHATURTHI".
KEA: Yes, IMD mentions the indicators mentioned in vagaries last night in today's bulletin, but did not see its mention of complete withdrawal by month end ?
Pakistan retreat starts today and could move east in a day or two.

Anonymous: Thanks for the site..

Abbhijit: Foggy/misty conditions were mentioned in sundays forecast for wednesday in outer suburbs..

pavan: expecting Pune to touch 18/19 next 2 nights.

Abhijit Modak said...

वक्रतुंड महाकाय सूर्यकोटी समप्रभ निर्विघ्नं कुरूमे देव सर्व कार्येशु सर्वदा ||

Ganpati Bappa Morya ..
Mangal Murti Morya..

Wishing Rajesh Sir & All Vagaries Readers a HAPPY GANESH CHATURTHI".

Arpit Sharma said...

Seems the monsoon rain is over from Delhi-NCR now,humidity level now is in the 60s.

Anonymous said...

yes i agree with rajesh sir"s prediction i feel monsoon will withdraw from pak by tommorow, thereafter from north india, and then from peninsula and finally the west coast of india, that should be around 10th of october , as rajesh sir has already pridicted .the east coast will see the advance of north east monsoon very soon .but may not be strong enough .


thanks prakash

Anonymous said...

yes i agree with rajesh sir"s prediction i feel monsoon will withdraw from pak by tommorow, thereafter from north india, and then from peninsula and finally the west coast of india, that should be around 10th of october , as rajesh sir has already pridicted .the east coast will see the advance of north east monsoon very soon .but may not be strong enough .



thanks prakash

Anonymous said...

for past couple of years monsoon has withdrawn from mumbai by mid of october. for eg; last year mumbai experienced severe thunderstorms after everything was done , which was unexpected . so we never know what is in stored for mumbai in the coming days.atleast till mid of oct.

thanks prakash

Anonymous said...

cloudy n gloomy here at vasai looks like there will be thunderstorm towards evening or night.

Anonymous said...

finally monsoon rains r done with Delhi NCR. from tommorow there will be clear weather.

Arpit Sharma said...

Yes i think its over now,winds direction has changed along with gradual decrease in humidity.Sky is almost clear here with cool air blowing.

sset said...

What is happening to Bangalore,Mysore,Kolar,Mandya.... South interior peninsula is bone dry- SWM has completely bypassed - very much similar to Sri Lanka extreme drought. Desertification in progress.

Infact september is more hotter in Bangalore (ironical this is supposed to be rainy month - complete climate change).
Day 19 sept NO RAIN.

Arpit Sharma said...

IMD has predicted few spells of rain in delhi for tomorrow.Lets see what happens!

pavan said...

on ganesh chaturthi feeling winter as diwali, low humidity chill breeze
lets forgive monsoons hope we can enjoy winter
better luck next time

Anonymous said...

@ MR SSET- desertification in progress desertification in progress plz stop yaar , by saying this all the time its not going pour in bangalore like cherapunji.monsoon is over now its gone, better luck next monsoon .