Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Vagaries has announced the possibility of a system forming in the Arabian Sea - in the first week of June.
Answering queries if it would become a cyclone, or whether the "cyclone" would have any bearings on the SWM is not possible at this stage. Over enthusiasm could be mis-leading.
A system is yet to form, and is 7 days away from getting formed. Possible strength and track is quite impossible to estimate at this stage. Any model predicting its movement will surely change it rather frequently, as things develop either way. (May not form at all).

Regular readers know, that Vagaries generally avoids changing given estimates too frequently, and makes a detour in forecast only if the weather situation forces it.
Vagaries would like to make an announcement only when its quite sure of it. It is for this reason that Vagaries could be late on some occasions.
But still sometimes, things do change within 24 hrs, and the whole scenario can rapidly take another turn.

Regards, Rajesh.

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