Friday, May 27, 2011

On Friday, 27th May:

Highest in Pakistan:46c Nawabshah. Highest in India: Chandrapur (Mah) :44.8c. Largest departure from normal in India (day temp): Bareilly (U.P.) temp; 30.4c Dep:-10c.

Sub Continent Heat "smashed" by M4 !

Seasonal Low hanging around 998 mb !

Gradiant not enough now ! Good News is M4 is showing its back..and heating will resume from Sunday ...should not upset SWM progress...dont think so.

Meanwhile, SWM rainfall still weak in regions covered (see Vagaries Monsoon advance map), but SW winds have stiffened up to 30 knts off the coasts. In Sri lanka, rain showers in Colombo, Ratnapura and Ratmalana and Galle on this morning. Between 7 -10 mms recorded. Port Blair received 7 mms till 5.30 am on Saturday.

Male (Maldives ) measured 17 mms till today morning.

Outlook For Arabian Sea system, Mumbai and Mahrashtra:

Fortunately, developments and progress seems to be on schedule, and going as per our predictions. (Keep the Monsoon onset Dates map of Vagaries kept handy).

Yesterday, 25th May,SWM has advanced into the Maldives and west Sri Lanka, and up to middle Andamans.

Now, the pre monsoon thundershowers in interior Mah.and North interior Karnataka have started as vagaries had estimated, around 25th May. Frequency of pre monsoon thundershowers for interior Mah. will increase till the SWM onset.

Mumbai, will be partly cloudy/cloudy next 6 days. Will see pre monsoon rains/thundershowers commencing from 3rd June.

For the next few days, the SWM seems to be heading on time for the estimated dates of onset. SWM can advance into Kerala as per our set time table, by the 3rd/4th of June.

So far so good. But,I do not want to stretch my luck too much.

In case we have a system developing in the Arabian Sea, things will start moving and changing according to the "will" of the system.

Two Possibilities:

-If it forms, it will be around 31st of May. But, SWM will be on Kerala as per schedule. If the system intensifies, and remains in the mid-Arabian Sea region, monsoon, after hitting Kerala, will get diverted towards it (West).

-If the system forms, and concentrates in the western region of the sea, I do not think it will affect the Northward advance of the monsoon into Karnataka.

My views:

SWM will be ok, on schedule till striking Kerala.

A system can form in the mid sea Arabian Sea, along the 60E, around 31st May.

System, will not get to a very strong level, maybe just a depression. May move along the mid sea regions, towards the NW, away from the sub-continent, but pull up the SWM northwards along the west coast of India.

Absolutely my personal reasoning and estimates.But actualities can change.

Vagaries will keep informing of the exact developments as and when.


Anonymous said...

May move North west away from sub continent you mean to say towards oman?? ... according to you if the system forms it will form around may 31st but the GFS models are predicting a system around 3 or 4 june ... i dont think GFS models are accurate in long range forecast .. isn't it ???

Rajesh said...

@anonymous:looking at today's synoptic situation, I feel it will start forming from 31st. and move NW.

emkay said...

Trichur Kerala getting Monsoon like steady heavy downpour throughout night and still continuing.

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