Monday, June 22, 2015
Posted Monday Night:
AS-2 is (almost) stationary since our last posting at 19.9N and 68E. Core pressure estimated at 990 mb. Completely surrounded by moist and saturated air, and with favourable shear, system can deepen to 988 mb and now move Northwards next 12-18 hrs. Likely to cross the coast near the India/Pakistan border on 24th and move NE thereafter.
Moderate (Medium to heavy) rainfall is likely in all regions of Gujarat next 2 days. Heaviest falls in Western Saurashtra and Kutch on Wednesday 24th.
Heavy falls likely in Southern coastal Sindh and Karachi from Tuesday night. Central and Upper Sindh get thunder showers on Tuesday and Wednesday in many places.
Interaction with WD and Moist East Monsoon winds will increase rainfall in Northern India and Pak Punjab after Wednesday 24th.
Ahmadabad will see rainfall increasing from Tuesday night, with Wednesday 24th and Thursday 25th getting good showers, some heavy in the region and district. Very windy from Tuesday night or Wednesday, with winds around 40 kmph. Thundershowers may be heavy on Wednesday night or Thursday.
BB-1 has weakened, and now lies over North Chattisgarh as a Low. Since it is in the axis , embedded, we can consider it has merged now.
The Eastern Vidharbh region got good rainfall today, with Nagpur getting 53 mms and Washim 30 mms in the 12 hrs ended 8.30 pm IST Monday.
Heavy rains were also recorded from East M.P. and Chattisgarh. Raipur saw 111 mms as on 8.30 am IST Monday.
As per Monday's showers forecast for Surat, the city received 40 mms till 8.30 pm Monday. Seeing Tuesday and Wednesday with regular showers with increasing frequency. Estimating around 25 mms per day. Would also estimate increasing showers next 2 days in Bharuch.
South West Monsoon Moving into Gujarat, U.P. (See Map alongside for current Monsoon Updated Limit).
Monsoon expected in Delhi on 26th June (including H.P, Haryana and Punjab).
Mumbai Santa Cruz has reached a total of 954 mms as on Monday evening. The highest ever June total for Scruz is 1037 mms in 1971.
Colaba has totaled 763 in the same period. The highest ever June total for Colaba is 1208 mms in 1985.
Next 2 days, Tuesday and Wednesday, I would expect showers in Mumbai, shorter duration, but heavy at times. Not prolonged. Next 2 days, would expect around 75-90 mms cumulative.
Rainfall gradually increasing in Kolkata from Wednesday..
Monsoonal Precipitation in Delhi NCR from 25th, as Monsoon advances around 26th....and first day may see phenomenal heavy rain.
One of the conditions of the onset over Kerla is depth of westerlies up to 600hpa. Presently westerlies are confined up to 850 hpa. Diso...