Friday, June 19, 2015

Posted Friday Night:
South West Monsoon Advances into Complete Maharashtra, South M.P. Chattisgarh, Odisha and West Bengal (Kolkata) on 19th June.

Cool Friday, with the day high seeing 26c, Mumbai showers eased out by night as mentioned in our Friday morning Forecast, and the 12 hrs rainfall for Mumbai averaged 106 mms (Estimated 90 mms by Vagaries). SantaCruz saw 136 mms and Colaba 106 mms in the 12 hs period.
Mumbai forecast as given in friday Morning post stays valid...

BB-1, Located off the Odisha Coast at 994 mb on Friday, will deepen to 992 mb by Saturday and cross the Odisha coast on Saturday night. Heavy rains expected on Saturday night and Sunday in Coastal A.P. South Chattisgarh (Raipur on Sunday) and Eastern Vidarbh (Nagpur, Chandrapur and Wardha).

The Low in the Arabian Sea, at 996 mb , is currently South off the Gujarat coast. Likely to get better organised to around 992 mb and remain practically stationary next 24 hrs.

As it develops, Coastal Sindh ( including Karachi) can get some rain on Sunday.

The Heavy Rainfall figures as cautioned for Telengana yesterday; Rainfall as on 24 hrs ended Friday Morning:
KHANAPUR    146.4 WARANGAL
KUNAVARAM    138.6 KHAMMAM
MANTHANI   130.4 KARIMNAGAR
DORNAKAL   100.2            WARANGAL
GUDUR                 98.4      WARANGAL
NARSAMPET         96.8      WARANGAL
CHENNARAOPET 92.4      WARANGAL
ETURNAGARAM 91.6       WARANGAL
ATMAKUR            91.4        WARANGAL
KOTHAGUDEM 83.4        WARANGAL
CHINTHAKAM      83.0       KHAMMAM
MULUGU(ARG) 83.0        WARANGAL
BHUPALPALLE 82.0        WARANGAL
CHANDRUGONDA 81.2      KHAMMAM
NALLABELLY         80.2     WARANGAL

GARLA                 76.2      KHAMMAM


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Rainfall till 2.30 pm IST Friday..Scruz 56 mms, 
The wind chart (2 pm IST Friday) shows the effect of the UAC at 700 levels on both sides.BB-1 at upper level and the Upper Level trough, or the upper level Monsoon axis explained in our earlier post.The upper axis is clearly seen.



And this one at Sea Level shows BB-1 and the weak Low in the Arb Sea
See the SW winds hitting Mumbai Coast. in both Maps

Mumbai Lakes Rainfall as on Friday Morning  (Previous 24 hrs)
Vihar 223 mms, Tulsi 191 mms, Vaitarna 5 mms,Upper Vaitarna 8 mms, Bhatsa 15 mms, Tansa 9 mms and Modak Sagar 6 mms.

15 comments:

SVT said...

Started raining heavily in Parel since 5 PM again.

Sarvesh said...

Why there is so much difference between Vihar vs vaitarna that means we had little rain near kasara?

sset said...

Now IMD has updated weather report- red color code = for extreme heavy falls over konkan. Next few days Orissa/Central India/GUJ will be in heavy news spells post bay low + MAHA already in extreme catg. But IMD says next 48hrs low forms over GUJ - so what implication on MUMBAI/MAHA???

Nilay Wankawala said...

Rajesh sir is this what we call a sympathy wave or sympathy low ?? Similar go what happened in somewhere July 2014 in mumbai?

KHYATI PANDIT said...

Sir if the low has became weak than what is causing heavy rain in Mumbai.is it due to bb1 effect

Shripad Nadiger said...

After 40 hours of pounding, rains finally take a break here in Mira Road,North Mumbai.

Shripad Nadiger said...

Rain break over...very heavy rains since past 20 minutes here in Mira Road, North Mumbai.

rajesh said...

Khyati. . The UAC had become s low. Initially weak. It was a uac till now.

Sarvesh said...

Why rains not pouring in lakes?

rajesh said...

As is seen from the Upper air flow of Friday, most rains are concentrated along North Konkan coast. Thats why i tried to explain with wind chart. There is very low rainfall inland. Will improve with BB-1 advancing and crossing coast.
A Low, or winds which rush along the same latitude as a system in the Bay, is called a sympathy low in the Arabian sea. The current Low is not in sympathy with the BB-1 system. It has formed from an upper air trough.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Thanks sir for clarification . I had been under impression this is sympathy low..

SVT said...

Started Pouring in Central Mumbai since 1 PM. Will the low off Gujarat coast move eastwards towards coast or westwards?

sset said...

skymet says ++1000mm by june for Mumbai....
Amazing Mumbai rains... wettest in west coast... deviation of +500mm. Santa Cruz another dump of 190mm today...

24 hrs
rain Total Deviation
Mumbai (SCZ) 190.1 726.5 458.2
Mumbai (CLB) 111.0 625.5 333.2

Unknown said...

Rajesh, I am a bit of a layman on weather terms. What is the difference between a UAC and BB ?

Suresh

KHYATI PANDIT said...

Sir till how many days Mumbai would go through rainy days due to the Arabian as well as bb1 depression.