Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Monsoon Watch - 8.. Quantum....(2nd June 2015)

Vagaries' Forecast of Seasonal Monsoon Rains...variations expected +_ 2%. 

Over All June - September All India Rainfall could be 91% of the average normal considered.

June -September..The Region Wise distribution could be: North West and Central India 91%, Western Region 94%, Southern Peninsula 90% and North East States 88%...of the Normal rainfall.

June: Overall rains in June for the Country expected to be 88% of the Normal.

July: North West will be 90%, Western Region will be 94%, Central Region will be 89%, North East India 90% and Southern Peninsula 88%...of the Normal.

Overall All India for July can be 90% of the Normal July Rains.

These rainfall Estimates are my personal views and calculations, and may or may not tally with any other official or unofficial agency. The estimates should not be used or applied for any commercial or business applications. Authour is not responsible for any commercial implications from these estimate figures.


bhpradipta said...

Rajesh Sir, when we may expect pre Monsoon showers in Kolkata?

Rawat said...

Sir, after this spell will NW india face hot and dry june as monsoon delayed. Will WD frequency reduce now?

Abhijit Modak said...

Great work Sir of estimation forecasting. Happy to see Western region to see 94% for the whole season. As all Dam filling here are dependent only on SWM Rains.

Vinod Desai said...

Would this year be similar to last year.back to back draught years

Unknown said...

sir,can you tell rainfall percentage of raigad district?will the monsoon be normal here

Dattaraj said...

Rajesh Sir,
About AS-1, it appears to be strong enough not to fizzle out is Sea. Some models indicates it travel N-W-N and move into Pakistan.

Atul said...

Great work sir.Thanks :) And yes Abhijit it's a bit relief to see western region around 94%. BUt overall its going to be painful monsoon season to see deficit monsoon :(

Rajesh said...

Pradipta: For now Kolkata is dry.Monsoon may be advancing around 15th June...as seen in map in Vagaries. Maybe some pre monsoon showers around 11th june .

Anoop: Yes, i have in my previous forecast indicated a hot June..we may see warm temperatures of 40-42c in North west plains...Frequency of WDs reduced as Monsoon axis but J-1 coming around mid june..

Dattaraj: AS-1 position was indicated about 4 days ago, when the scenario seemed so...but, i am observing the development and will review tomorrow. Though the models were showing as cyclone from last week of May to strike in May.

Vinod Desai: Vagaries estimates 91%, so maybe just on the border, may not cross to drought overall. But regions showing 88% may face drought...so possible drought in some patches.

Abizer: Specifically raighad is difficult to estimate, but i see 5-7% less in Konkan.

Thanks Atul bhai and Abhijit.

Final Figures for Mumbai Monsoon 2023 Santacruz 2978 mm ( 117.2 ") Colaba 2398 mms ( 94.5") Ending on good note with Lakes at 99.3...