Monday, June 22, 2015

Posted Monday Night:

AS-2 is (almost) stationary since our last posting at 19.9N and 68E. Core pressure estimated at 990 mb. Completely surrounded by moist and saturated air, and with favourable shear, system can deepen to 988 mb and now move Northwards next 12-18 hrs. Likely to cross the coast near the India/Pakistan border on 24th and move NE thereafter.

Moderate (Medium to heavy) rainfall is likely in all regions of Gujarat next 2 days. Heaviest falls in Western Saurashtra and Kutch on Wednesday 24th. 
Heavy falls  likely in Southern coastal Sindh and Karachi from Tuesday night. Central and Upper Sindh get thunder showers on Tuesday and Wednesday in many places. 

Interaction with WD and Moist East Monsoon winds will increase rainfall in Northern India and Pak Punjab after Wednesday 24th.

Ahmadabad will see rainfall increasing from Tuesday night, with Wednesday 24th and Thursday 25th  getting good showers, some heavy in the region and district. Very windy from Tuesday night or Wednesday, with winds around 40 kmph. Thundershowers may be heavy on Wednesday night or Thursday.

BB-1 has weakened, and now lies over North Chattisgarh as a Low. Since it is in the axis , embedded, we can consider it has merged now.

The Eastern Vidharbh region got good rainfall today, with Nagpur getting 53 mms and Washim 30 mms in the 12 hrs ended 8.30 pm IST Monday. 
Heavy rains were also recorded from East M.P. and Chattisgarh. Raipur saw 111 mms as on 8.30 am IST Monday.

As per Monday's showers forecast for Surat, the city received 40 mms till 8.30 pm Monday. Seeing Tuesday and Wednesday with regular showers with increasing frequency.  Estimating around 25 mms per day. Would also estimate increasing showers next 2 days in Bharuch.

South West Monsoon Moving into Gujarat, U.P. (See Map alongside for current Monsoon Updated Limit).
Monsoon expected in Delhi on 26th June (including H.P, Haryana and Punjab).

Mumbai Santa Cruz has reached a total of 954 mms as on Monday evening. The highest ever June total for Scruz is 1037 mms in 1971. 
Colaba has totaled 763  in the same period. The highest ever June total for Colaba is 1208 mms in 1985. 
Next 2 days, Tuesday and Wednesday, I would expect showers in Mumbai, shorter duration, but heavy at times. Not prolonged. Next 2 days, would expect around 75-90 mms cumulative.

Rainfall gradually increasing in Kolkata from Wednesday..
Monsoonal Precipitation in Delhi NCR from 25th, as Monsoon advances around 26th....and first day may see phenomenal heavy rain.


Unknown said...

Sir, what will be wind speed in saurashtra during coming two days?

Mohsin mulla said...

Heavy rain in mumbai and surrounding area with very gusty sw winds arabian sea low come close to south gujrat coast its indirectly effect on mumbai and north konkan.

sset said...

yes same in NAVI MUMBAI - since yesterday blowing like cyclonic winds with zero visibility - since dawn pouring like waterfalls...will this repeat like thursday.. new AS low?? Last 3 years North AS has become hotspot for cyclones/lows/UACs....leaving KAR/KER high and dry...

Abhijit Modak said...

And Mumbai does it !! Mumbai Scruz recorded 89mm rainfall ending 8:30am today. With this seasonal total crosses 1000 mm mark. Total stands at 1039mms from 1 June till today ending 8.30am. With this break it's old time record of highest rain of 1037 mm which was in June 1971.

SVT said...

Pouring since 12:30 am with incredible winds. Any reasons for this unexpected heavy rains?

Khan Gazanfar said...

Heavy rain in Mira road what is reason?

Abhijit Modak said...

SvT: This was not unexpected at all. As AS-2 system deepening to DD and curving bit NE so strong outflow from it produces super SW winds on all winds level till 700hpa. And this help generation of clouds over N. Konkan and strengthening of off shore trough.

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