Saturday, June 27, 2015

Nothing much to change from the post below.....Break Monsoon conditions continue. The axis remains in the foothills of the Himalayas, and the rains continue now in Nepal, Sikkim and North Bengal.

Hotter days have started in Delhi NCR, with Palam touching 41.6c, Ayanagar 40.7c and Safdarjung 39.0c on Sunday. Amritsar was hot at  41.4c and Jaipur was 40.6c.
In Pakistan Nokkundi saw 47c, while Turbat and Sibbi were 45c, Nawabshah was 44c.  Islamabad soared to 39c.

Posted the article in Lokmat Times Monday Edtion for Marathwada and Akola regions...see Current Weather Page or
 Vagaries' article In Lokmat Times for Aurngabad and West Vidharbh Readers...Page 2
http://www.epaper.lokmat.com/lokmattimes/epapermain.aspx?queryed=78
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Posted Saturday Night:

-The Monsoon axis has shifted North to the Himalayan Foothills, thus creating a "break monsoon" Scenario.
-According to vagaries, the Winds and OLR show the Monsoon is yet to move into Rajasthan.
-Vagaries feels that with the Seasonal Low pressure now (Saturday) on a high at 998 mb, it is difficult for the Monsoon to move into Rajasthan not at least in the next 7 days. The seasonal core may drop to 994 mb by mid next week.

We see days getting hotter in the Sindh Pakistan region along with Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana and Delhi in the next 5 days.
Ahmadabad, with almost no rains, seeing days rise to almost 39c. Delhi may also see hotter days at 41/42c next week.

The West coast off shore trough remains weakish, bringing little rains in the next week (Next 5 days) to the West coast and almost dry for Gujarat.

The UAC in W.Bengal soon merges and dissolves in the Axis ...Rains likely in Bihar and East U.P. next 2 days. As rains will be effective in Nepal, we may see some downstream flooding in Bihar.

No organised system in Bay till 4th July at least.

Mumbai will be hot and parly cloudy, with sunny spells, and days rising to 33/34c on Sunday.Though next week, is hot and not much rains, Mumbai may see a localised convective thunder shower on Monday or Tuesday in some parts.

Kolkata, will be hot also around 36/37c, but may get a thunder shower by Wednesday or Thursday ( An embedded UAC in the eastern trough: temporary).

Pakistan remains hot and dry..(except for extreme North)....Days hot in Sindh , with peak temperatures touching 48c in Sindh and Balochistan.
Karachi will be sunny and dry, with Sunday /Monday touching 39/40c again. But sea breeze setting in next week will lower the days to around 36/37c.

Islamabad will be partly cloudy, and hotter next week. Mid week may see around 41c. Gujrat (Pakistan) will be very hot next week, touching 44c and warm nights at 33c !...before thunder showers cool down the city by Thursday..


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Posted Saturday Morning:

The Monsoon Axis has shifted North, running from Punjab thru U.P. and then into a Low pressure in Bangla Desh.
In view of this, the Westerlies are blowing South of the axis, and Easterlies in the North.
As a result, South West Monsoon has now covered all the regions , except Rajasthan (according to Vagaries) , as the Seasonal Low prevails over Pakistan.

The weak off shore trough of the West Coast hold good for next 2 days.
The west coast will get weak medium rains (weak as per the normal at this time) next 2 days.
Spotty rains likely in Odisha and adjoining W.Bengal, and adjoining East M.P.
Rains expected in Utterakhand, H.P, Northern U.P. adjoining Nepal and in Nepal.

Mumbai will have partly cloudy skies with sunny spells and few passing showers. Similarly, very little rains for Delhi and Kolkata.

Will put up more details tonite by 10.30 pm IST. (There was a break in my posting also :-)

13 comments:

sset said...

Mumbai/Navi Mumbai/Thane glorious weather. Intense rains for 10 days - 1100 mm has brought to life most of water falls, green canopy back on hills - enjoy warm sun...till u face harsh reality of relentless downpour of july...

Atul said...

Break in you post is as painful as break in monsoon :)

Vinod Desai said...

Sir,

Hope you are doing fine.

What are your thoughts for the rains in July as per current conditions for the country.

Vinod.

Atul said...

Sir, yes, It would be good if you share your thoughts on july and august monsoon. Will ei nino ruin the party or indian ocean dipole will help party to continue?

rajesh said...

Thanks Vinod and Atul: All fine with me...will put up on El Nino in a dayor two.

rajesh said...

Saurabh and Nilay..i ave given my views today...and fastes progress i will let you know tomorrow in comments...been busy last few days :-)

Nilay Wankawala said...

Ok sir ..missed u and ur views here for some days in between ...

sset said...

Plenty of euphoria surrounding IOD. But if we refer to "Rajesh Sir - Monsoon watch series 2015" - wealth of information related to factors impacting monsoon- IOD is indirectly present (not mentioned as contributing factors).

Break in monsoon is it due to IOD disturbance(deviation from neutral - tending towards negative) OR 500hpa ridge factor (as given in vagaries Monsoon Watch Series)

My Guess is ENSO (surface sea temperature), IOD (ocean diapole), SOI (oscillation index) are in some way related - IOD/SOI are indirectly related - negative correlation (for both SWM/NEM).

http://www.vagaries.in/search/label/MW%20series%202015 (from Rajesh Sir monsoon watch 2015)

sset said...

By the way all birds including 'belapur palm beach road -beautiful mangrove - flamingos' are having merry happy time with spring like conditions....

Abhijit said...

SSET. Seems you are very jealous with Konkan rains.How can you use word 'harsh reality' ?? July is infact main month when all paddy fields grow also whole year water storage to this big metropolis Mumbai and all other peninsular India who is dependent on western ghat rain is gained from this July month only.. So rain are most welcome and every weather lover loves it . You are the only one who talks opposite way always on Mumbai rain..

Pavan said...

Yes Abhijit from this harsh realities they want to build green canopies on THAR....I am really desperate to meet this guy more than rains...

Mohsin mulla said...

Rajesh sir.
when will be monsoon review in mumbai and entire west coast.because many private forcaster and imd indicates the july rainfall is not up to tha mark. ur view on that

sset said...

Not at all - rains are GODS blessings - water is source/essence of life. Just mentioned enjoy greenery and sun as next few weeks rains will be back.....