Monday, June 22, 2015

Top Rainfall in Maharashtra (22.06.2015)
This is massive and for 2nd day Maharashtra is battered.
1. Bamnoli - 411 mm
2. Lamaj - 410 mm
3. Ambavali - 395 mm
4. Tapola - 388 mm
5. Mahabaleshwar - 366 mm
6. Bhutonde - 340 mm
7. Shirgaonvsh - 336 mm
8. Jor - 322 mm
9. Shirgaon - 322 mm
10. Ghisar - 321 mm
11. Varandoli - 309 mm
12. Sonat - 305 mm
13. Margtamhane - 292 mm 
from Pradeep John

Mumbai was very close to our estimate for Saturday/Sunday cumulative rains...recording an average 0f 230 mms against estimated"around 200 mms"..Santacruz totals 950 mms from 1st June...nearing the all time June total of 1037 mms in 1971.
Mahableshwar saw 366 mms in 24 hrs ended Monday morning...more figures coming from Pradeep, our Rainman !

Posted Sunday Night:

BB-1 has crossed the Odisha coast, and as anticipated, poured heavy rains in the State. Many Cities in Odisha got heavy rains on Saturday and Sunday. Amongst them , Umerkot 207 mms, Malkangiri 206 mms, Udaygiri 158 mms,  Junagrh 135 mms, Jeypore saw 132 mms, Mahendragarh 131 mms, Gudari 127 mms, Gopalpur 113 mms, Jalpatna 108 mms,

South Chattigarh was informed of heavy rains as Jagdalpur measured 151 mms.

Adjoining Vidarbh and M.P. .Sunday rains in the other surrounding Cities:
Nagpur got 45 mms overnight and another 33 mms on Sunday till 8.30 pm. Indore received 59 mms on Sunday till 8.30 pm. 
Heavy Rains expected in Vidarbh and adjoining East MP on Monday.
Pune too had a wet day with 35 mms in the day on Sunday.

AS-2 (Erroneously, Vagaries had numbered this system as AS-1 in last posts. Regret the error) is now deepened , but practically stationary at 19.9N and 67.7E as on Sunday evening. Now having a core estimated pressure at 992 mb, and classified as Well Marked Low by IMD, system will deepen more, to around 988 mb next 24 hrs...South Quadrant winds, supported by Monsoon winds , are strong at around 45-55 knts. Cloud cover is mostly in the  West of the system.

AS-2 is now having strong ultra moist air is already enveloping it, and no shear resistance, it will track initially NW. After being stationary for another 12-18 hrs, it will track initially NW, and then after 18-24 hrs move Northwards. Would expect the system to meanwhile deepen to a low of 988 mb, and just weaken before crossing land around the International Border (India/Pakistan).

Coastal Sindh and adjoining Kutch can get showers on 23rd/24th , with heavy falls in SE Sindh and Kutch on 24th/25th. Inter action with Northerly trough with the upper axis will also bring showers to rest of Sindh from Monday, possibly increasing on Tuesday and Wednesday as AS-2 moves inland. Hot spots like Larkana and Jacobabad and Upper Sindh will get some relief thunder squalls possibly from Monday night thru Wednesday.

Showers expected in Karachi on 24th and 25th. Karachi is extremely Hot at 45c on 19th June, with 20th again touching 44.8c. Minimum 21st was a gruelling 33c !! Read more in Vagaries Pakistan.
Turbat in Pakistan was hottest at 48.5c.

Mumbai Colaba got 32 mms, Vagaries 33 mms and Santa cruz 49 mms on Sunday in 12 hrs ended 8.30 pm IST.

Mumbai City is not going to be directly affected by the system AS-2. As the system tracks, the SW winds will weaken marginally, not strengthen.

Hence, Monday Tuesday, Mumbai can expect frequent showers, some heavy but with limited duration, not prolonged. Accumulated rainfall for Monday and Tuesday will be around 100 mms...
As on Sunday morning, Vihar Lake received 140 mms, Tulsi 120 mms, and Vaitarna, Tansa and Middle Vaitarna 20 mms each. (Figures are rounded to mms).

Surat, will see some showers on Monday with cloudy skies, around 15 -20 mms. Rains marginally increasing on Tuesday night thru Wednesday. 

2nd day of Massive Rains in Nilgiris, Tamil Nadu Rainfall ending 8.30 am on 21.06.2015
The Depression over Bay Of Bengal, off Odisha coast had made landfall  between Gopalpur & Puri on 21st morning. It will move further inland and merge with the monsoon axis thereby pushing the onset of monsoon over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and West Bengal in the coming days.

in mm (min 15 mm)

Parsons Valley - 230
Upper Bhavani - 133
Ooty  - 133
Naduvattam  - 98
Lower Nirar - 68
Ketti  - 60
Emerald - 59
Porthimund - 49
Valparai PTO - 46
Sholayar - 41
Kundha Bridge - 40
Pykara - 40
Kodimudiyaru - 40
Kannimar - 33
Glenmorgan - 31
Lower Kodayar - 29
Upper Kodayar - 29
G Bazar  3
Sandyanallah - 27
Pechiparai - 25
Kottaram - 25
Chinnakallar - 22
Valparai Taluk Office - 21
Adayamadai - 21
Periyakulam - 20
Thuckalay - 20
Surulode - 20
Mylaudy - 20
Aralvoimozhi - 20

Massive Rains in Nilgiris and Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu rainfall ending 8.30 am on 20.06.2015
The well marked low pressure area over Bay of Bengal, off South Odisha and North Andhra Pradesh coasts has concentrated into a Depression. The System would cross Odisha coast between Gopalpur and Puri on 21st afternoon.

in mm (min 30 mm)

Parsons Valley - 342
Upper Bhavani - 240
Avalanche - 225
Emeralad - 117
Porthimund - 110
Sholayar - 100
Makkinampatti - 89
Lower Nirar - 85
Valparai PTO -  82
Chinnakalar  - 77
Manakadavu - 75
Devala  - 63
Mukurthy - 60
Negamam - 60
Pollachi  - 60
Ketti - 52
Upper Kodayar - 49
Periyar  - 47
Chincona - 47
K Bridge  - 46
Naduvattam - 45
Papanasam  - 44
Valparai Taluk Office  - 44
Gudalur Bazar - 44
Sultanpet - 37
Glenmorgan - 36
Lower Kodayar - 30


emkay said...

Sir, don't forget delhi in your forecast!! Am assuming a spike in temperature by next weekend.

Unknown said...

Has the bhushi dam of lonavalla overflown

Atul said...

Continuous rain in pimpari Chinchwad area

Abhijit Modak said...

First Wide spread Heavy Rain was observed in entire North Konkan yesterday.

Some rainfall in mms around Mumbai ending 8.30am today (22-06-2015):

Panvel 152
Karjat 149
Palghar 140
Barvi Dam(Badlapur) 132
Wada 131
Tulshi lake(Mumbai) 129
Vihar lake(Mumbai) 124
Ulhasnagar 123
Kalyan 116
Dahanu 113
Khalapur 109
Uran 105
Alibaug 95
Thane 94
Shahapur 91
Santacruz(Mumbai) 93
Bhivandi 90
Murbad 84
Vasai 78
Ambernath 75
Colaba(Mumbai) 65

Mumbai water supplying lake rainfall ending 8.30am today:

Modak sagar 122
Bhatsa 121
Vaitarna 106
Upper Vaitarna 104
Tansa 75

Ghat section rainfall ending 8.30am today:

Mahabaleshwar 366
Mulshi 244
Bhira 166
Lonavala 142
Bhimashankar & Khandala 112
Walvan,Lonavala 108

Abhijit Modak said...

In Konkan coast, Harnai & Murud towns becomes first to achieve 100cm mark rainfall for the season:
Total Rainfall till today stands at
Harnai 1053mm
Murud 1014mm

sset said...

Abhijitji - actually in normal years coastal KAR places are first to cross 100cm mark for june + hotspots like Augumbe (-600mm) but due to violent surge of north Arabian sea konkan has won race will all stations in excess, madhya MAHA is also moving towards excess - due hyperactive north Arabian sea almost all places of coastal KAR are in severe deficit zone guess only break monsoon can help.

Vinod Desai said...

When will monsoon reach the northern part of Gujarat?

sset said...

It seems today more than 100-150 places in MAHA received rains > 200mm probably pradeepji can give actual results.
Pradeep has put good pictures of OMAN in rain (just saw now)
KERALA is very silent like KAR - monsoon needs to pickup...

Karan Kumbhar said...

Its amazing that monsoon , predicted to be 12% less(by IMD) , is currently 20% excess .
Though its just the first month , sets the tone for remaining season.

Sarvesh said...

Have we made all time record for June?

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