Tuesday, June 09, 2015

Cyclone Ashoba is stagnant in strength, and is now at 21N and 63E, 234 N miles from Masirah Island.
It is showing a stagnant and weakening Trend, as dry air and stable air is rushing in from the high pressure ridge in the North.
Convective trend is waning.
However, system will strike Oman with heavy rainfall, as the landscape of Oman is not suited and is unable to cope with heavy falls leading to quick flooding.
muscat can expect rains from Wednesday evening,and heavier on Thursday. Can get around 40 -50 mms from Wed  through Thursday.

The South West Monsoon will progress into Konkan and South Maharashtra on the estimated date around 14th June.
We may expect Monsoon in Kolkata from  15th  and pre monsoon rains from 13/14th. Can expect 50 mms on monsoon setting day in Kolkata.

10 comments:

Mohsin mulla said...

Rajesh sir.
where is the pre monsoon thunder in mumbai and thane.there is no rain since sunday only windy weather.lots of weather module including vagaries suggest cyclone ashoba not create any impact on monsoon but were is the evening thunder or pre monsoon rain.ur view on that.

Vinod Desai said...

Hello sir,
We had a strong shower for around 10-15 minutes after midnight here in western suburb.

rajesh said...

Pre monsoon rain showers will continue in Mumbai till arrival of monsoon. There were some heavy showers in suburbs on Wednesday night also.
Approximate date of monsoon for Mumbai is already explained earlier.
Vagaries had mentioned before formation of cyclone that if it goes below 994 mb, it can affect monsoon.
It became cyclone but weakened considerably before hitting land. . Almost fizzling out.

SVT said...

It seems Mumbai will finally starts getting decent rains from tomorrow. IMD might declare Monsoon over Mumbai in next 48 hours.

parshuram shinde said...

HAVEY RAIN IN MUMBAI..
SIR...
I THING THIS IS MONSOON RAIN..MONSOON ADVANCE IN MUMBAI... IM RIGHT SIR....

Vinod Desai said...

Heavy rains last night and since early morning heavy raining in mumbai and around

Abhijit said...

Mumbai SWM season get starts with good heavy rains . Santacruz recorded 82.2mm, Vagaries 26mm & Colaba 24.4mm rainfall ending 8.30am today.

SVT said...

As expected IMD declares onset of Monsoon over Mumbai.

Abhijit said...

IMD declares SouthWest Monsoon arrival in whole Konkan and some parts of SW Madhya Maharashtra today.

Monsoon watch extract from IMD Midday report of today :

♦   Southwest monsoon has further advanced into remaining parts of Central Arabian sea, remaining parts of Konkan (including Mumbai) and some parts of Madhya Maharashtra.
♦   The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passes through Lat. 20.0°N/Long. 60.0°E, Lat.20.0°N/Long. 70.0°E, Dahanu, Pune, Kolhapur, Bellary, Anantapur, Chennai, Lat. 13.0°N/Long. 84.0°E, Lat. 16.0°N/Long. 90.0°E, Lat. 21.0°N /Long. 92.0°E, Lat. 24.0°N /Long. 91.0°E, Dhubri and Gangtok.
♦   Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into remaining parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Bay of Bengal and Sikkim and some parts of north Arabian sea, south Gujarat state, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar during next 5 days.

sset said...

very heavy rains over Navi Mumbai.. intensity looks like proper monsoon...