Full write up tonite at 11 pm IST..
Posted Thursday 4th June Night:
The Last mention of AS-1 in Vagaries was in the 1st June post...I have been getting requests to keep the blog updated on the developments in the Arabian Sea...well, this is because many models are showing various stages of AS-1 developments including becoming a cyclone. Anxious readers are getting curious !
If the scheduled forecast is as per estimate, then the least said the better !!
Vagaries' last mention was that a Low would form (AS-1) by the 4th..embedded in the off shore trough.
Today, 4th June, we read this in an IMD Bulletin:"The trough of low over Lakshadweep area & neighbourhood at mean sea level over south-east Arabian sea and adjoining Lakshadweep area persists. Under its influence, a low pressure area would develop by tomorrow."
This confirms our schedule.
A Low has formed around 11N and 69E..with estimated core pressure at 1002 mb. embedded in the trough.
AS-1 will deepen into a well marked Low and move N/NW initially from the position of forming around 11N and 69E.
After tracking N/NW till 15N , AS-1 would track NW, and gradually dissipate in the Sea as a WML or a depression at the most ( estimated core winds at 40-45 kmph) .
South West Monsoon moving into Kerala. Would establish itself as a feeble current in Kerala by 5th June...
Sindh (Pakistan) cools down as rains lash many areas...Sukkur with 50 mms and Pad Idan with 36 mmms top the list.
On Thursday 4th, Nawabshah, a hot spot, saw a minimum of 20c. Larkana saw a cooler night at 22c,Up North, Lahore's day was at 32c and Islamabad saw a high of 31c...cool summers !