Thursday, June 04, 2015

South West Monsoon Advances into Kerala on 5th June...  >>>>>>>>>
Full write up tonite  at 11 pm IST..

Posted Thursday 4th June Night:

The Last mention of AS-1 in Vagaries was in the 1st June post...I have been getting requests to keep the blog updated on the developments in the Arabian Sea...well, this is because many models are showing various stages of AS-1 developments including becoming a cyclone. Anxious readers are getting curious !
If the scheduled forecast is as per estimate, then the least said the better !!

Vagaries' last mention was that a Low would form (AS-1) by the 4th..embedded in the off shore trough. 
Today, 4th June, we read this in an IMD Bulletin:"The trough of low over Lakshadweep area & neighbourhood at mean sea level over south-east Arabian sea and adjoining  Lakshadweep area persists. Under its influence, a low pressure area would develop by tomorrow."

This confirms our schedule.
A Low has formed around 11N and 69E..with estimated core pressure at 1002 mb. embedded in the trough.
AS-1 will deepen into a well marked Low and move N/NW initially from the position of forming around 11N and 69E. 

After tracking N/NW till 15N , AS-1 would track NW, and gradually dissipate in the Sea as a WML or a depression at the most ( estimated core winds at 40-45 kmph) .

South West Monsoon moving into Kerala. Would establish itself as a feeble current in Kerala by 5th June...

Sindh (Pakistan) cools down as rains lash many areas...Sukkur with 50 mms and Pad Idan with 36 mmms top the list. 
On Thursday 4th, Nawabshah, a hot spot, saw a minimum of 20c. Larkana saw a cooler night at 22c,Up North, Lahore's day was at 32c and Islamabad saw a high of summers !


Dattaraj said...

As forecast-ed in vagaries, many parts of Hyderabad received heavy thundershowers last night.

Atul said...

If AS-1 converts into cyclone then can it be -ve to monsoon as nanuk did last year?

sset said...

Last year was magic defying all models... despite june 2014 nanuk july exceptional rains was too much excess... same may happen this time also.

naveen123 said...

The onset will be delayed but rains will be normal

Vinod Desai said...

Its cloudy here in mumbai today.

sset said...

IMD forcasts heavy rains over konkan/goa for next 2-3 days... monsoon in Mumbai is something like extreme events..

Rawat said...

Sir is heat waves on the way for north india.

Nilesh Ladhad said...

Please forecast for Valsad also along with other cities

Mohsin mulla said...

Rajesh sir.
my question to u the upcoming arabian sea cerculation halting the progress of monsoon in konkan and mumbai.sir same kind of suituation like june 2014.that time cyclone naunak and this time low ready to take shape in south central arabian sea bad news for west coast.ur view on that

Rajesh said...

Moshin: I dont think it will be that bad.Syetm will not become cyclone..please read latest published blog.

Nilesh: Thundery showers on Sunday and Monday evening for Valsad. But real increase in rains after 11th June.

naveen123 said...

Monsoon has not yet picked up in kerala ....will it be so late

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