Monday, June 08, 2015

 putting up explanation of SWM till Karnataka and moving into goa ....soon by 11 pm on blog

Cyclonic Storm (ASHOBAA) over  Arabian Sea. 

Posted 12 Noon IST Monday 8th June

AS-1, deepens rapidly, ( Deep Depression) and latest slow track speed shows at 17.7N and 67.7 E. Estimated average core pressure falls to 990 mb, with average core winds at 45-50 knts.
Rapid intensification seen in last 12 hrs as movement is slow, and system still in favourable environment of moist air and favourable SST.
Squally winds likely along Saurashtra and South Gujarat coast.


Tracking NW towards drier air mass. Vagaries feels system could weaken after tracking next 18 - 24 hrs.

South West Monsoon has advanced into Coastal Karnataka. Moving on schedule to move into Goa now...

Mumbai: Thunder showers occurred in city on Saturday and Sunday. Many Central parts got upto 25 mms on Sunday evening, while suburbs got around 5 mms.
Thunder showers likely in the evenings..Next 2/3 days . Monsoon will progress towards Mumbai from around 14th June, when frequency for rains will increase.

Pune will get the evening thunder showers next few days. Days will remain around 35c.

6 comments:

Abhijit said...

It's official now Ashobaa cyclone has formed in Arabian Sea ! As IMD upgrades Deep Depression into Cyclonic Storm formation in it's 11am bulletin today.

Ron said...

What is worrying is whether this would affect the strength of the monsoon.

naveen123 said...

Ya it will affect monsoon

Mohsin mulla said...

Rajesh sir.
why today mumbai not get evening thundershower or what abt cyclone why this cyclone not travelled north east direction toward north konkan and mumbai.every time they traveld nn/w direction and get all the moisure from sea.

Vinod Desai said...

Sir
Can u also tell about mumbai.no rain today in mumbai in our area.

Nilay Wankawala said...

Latest update on el nino development by Australian bureau of meteorology issued 9.6.2015

Ocean temperatures continue to rise in the tropical Pacific

The 2015 El Niño continues to develop. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest further warming of the tropical Pacific is likely, with sea surface temperatures forecast to remain above El Niño thresholds for the remainder of the year.

Most oceanic and atmospheric indicators are consistent with El Niño. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have continued to warm, and trade winds have been consistently weaker than average. However, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is currently rising, with this due to local weather, not climate factors. In the past three months the SOI has averaged −9.7, exceeding El Niño thresholds. Cloudiness near the Date Line has also eased towards more normal levels, but this shift may only be short-lived.

El Niño is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. The strength of El Niño doesn't directly relate to the strength of its effects on Australia's climate.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Of the five international models that provide IOD outlooks, two suggest a positive IOD is likely later in 2015, with a third model just shy of thresholds. A positive IOD is typically associated with reduced winter and spring rainfall over parts of southern and central Australia.