Saturday, June 20, 2015

Position as on Saturday Afternoon:

Arabian Sea Low (AS-1) at Location and estimated core pressure 994 mb
BB-1 a depression at 992 mb and South Quadrant winds estimated at 55-60 knots



19 comments:

Abhijit said...

Mumbai Scruz recorded 60 mm rainfall till 5.30pm today in last 9hrs. Pressure has drop to 997.6 hpa at 5.30pm today. So lowest pressure till now of the season.

VINOD URMODE said...

What about Pune?

VINOD URMODE said...

What about PUNE? No considerable rain

gaurav raninga said...

Sir, what can be the future of as-1 and how it will effect saurashtra in coming days? Will this system going to show something extraordinary?

Muhammad Irfan Bhundi said...

Do you see any prospects of Arabian Sea developing into a cyclone and where would it head? Karachi has been experiencing really hot weather because of this low so will this system bring any rains to the city?

sset said...

Mumbai Kurla highest rain 250mm in 24hrs.. Mumbai likely to cross 800mm by today/tommorow. June all time records> Only way to save Mumbai from another iteration of dreadful monstrous rains ... arabian sea low should mover NW away from India (b) BB low should move NW (MP/UP/PUN).. thus propagating SWM into north. Arabian sea cyclone - is it possible for 2 cyclone in span of 1 week?

sset said...

Cause of concern - KAR cauvery catchments are lacking rains... so is coastal KAR...

Atul said...

Sir, When can we expect rain at areas like Pune,Satara. Fortunately it has started raining in ghat section, but I guess intensity is in South ghat section

Anuj Arora said...

Sir it seems the lows of the AS and the bay will combine together with a approaching WD around 23rd June and will bring flash floods in the NW including Pakistan. Your views chief?

Anuj Arora said...

Sir it seems both the lows in the bay and the Arabian Sea will interact with a approaching WD around 23rd June and will create flash floods in NW India and Pakistan. Your views chief?

sset said...

Mumbai rate at which it is raining - cross 1500mm by june... that means on average it has rained almost 150mm every day since 15th of june...

Muhammad Irfan Bhundi said...

when will be the next update on Arabian sea low. Curious to know if it will have any sort of impact on Sindh and Karachi. Karachi got light showers in morning but it has become very stick again. Can't remember that last time Karachi experiencing temperatures over 40C for more than 3 days in June when it is usually cloudy and windy. The heat is just unbearable and i am sure it has to do with this Arab low. GFS model suggests that it will remain stationary before crossing Kutch-Saurashtra coast in the later part of the week. how do you see things shaping up?

sset said...

NW India floods will defeat EL-NINO and all models which predicted less rains for NW!! Actually we see huge change in climate. Earlier monsoon years we used to gradual increase in rains from june - aug for MAHA giving more rains to coastal KAR,KER and Sri Lanka but now june itself has become vigorous with monsoon current immediately moving to north konkan/GUJ and happily form lows...this will result in less rains for southern india/sri lanka - actually for name sake we say monsoon touched Sri lanka but no real falls..

sset said...

June 5-9 1998 most recent Kutch cyclone in month of june.

KHYATI PANDIT said...

sir when will mumbai will get a bit respite from this heavy rain from 4 days now

Anuj Arora said...

So true in fact for the last ten years or so monsoon rains have approached NW India without any fuss. In the year 2013 heavy rains accompanied with flash floods filled up the 2 months quota in two days. The WD has come to the rescue of arid region of Gujarat Rajasthan so much so Ladakh Kinnaur Lahaul and Spiti Kashmir where monsoon moisture does not reach but thanks to the WD s interaction with SW monsoon moisture these areas have lots of precipitation

Vinod Desai said...

SIR,
What is forecast for coming week for Mumbai.

rajesh said...

Vinod, Gaurav, Muhammad, Anuj and Khyati...I think i have answered your queris in the Sunday blog...lease ask ifnot answered.

Anuj Arora said...

Sir your blog on Monday ie 22nd June has satisfied my curiosity that the low in the AS will interact with the approaching WD and the monsoonal moisture to bring about good rain in Pakistan and NW India.It seems heavy rains till 26 th June with flash flooding and the break monsoon conditions to follow. Gone is the monsoon season where as a kid i used to witness continuos movement of clouds along the shivalik hills of the Shimla range. We used to dread going to Himachal Pradesh those days as heavy rains without any break would dampen your spirits,now even in the monsoon season tourist throng the hills as the monsoon is not the same.