Sunday, June 14, 2015

A Day Ahead !!!..
Mumbai Colaba records 84 mms and Santa Cruz 41 mms from 8.30 am -8.30 pm IST on Sunday. Average 62 mms .., A day ahead of what was estimated for Monday...Now, Monday needs revised estimate 

Monsoon Advances into South Gujarat Coast to Surat and Part of Coastal Saurashtra on Sunday 14th...
 I was a bit surprised to see the unusual "Bump" shown in the Monsoon advance map of IMD on Sunday...Very unusual as in many years, Monsoon has on many occasions advanced around from the East and moving into U.P. and ignoring M.P. in the event of a System from the Bay...
 I have not seen this type of "uneven" advance. We do not see the wind parameters or rain amounts coinciding with advance in MP region shown.
A Central Region advance as shown is in fact showing clear conditions as on Sunday..
See vagaries' Map for our version of Monsoon advance...>>>>>>.

Mumbai: Monday will see showers and periods of rain, with an average rain expected around 30 mms. 
Rains on Tuesday may be interrupted by some sunny spells, but showers will be heavy at times to bring around 20 mms.
As mentioned , SWM moves into Surat on Sunday, and nominal showers continue till Tuesday...But, decrease there after.

Pune, may get a thunder shower on Tuesday and Wednesday, breaking the dry monotony.

Thunder squall in some parts or vicinity of Delhi NCR on Monday...decreasing rain and increasing heat from Wednesday in NCR.


emkay said...

Vagaries map doesn't display on mobile version, I was chasing >>

Karan Kumbhar said...

With situations not changing in june , can we expect a revival in first week of july ?
When can we expect a good low pressure area in bay of bengal ?
I believe lpas in BOB foster monsoon in india
Thanks in advance.

Abhijit Modak said...

South Mumbai gets first 100mm mark rainfall of the season.. Rainfall in mms ending 8.30am today :

Vagaries (Mahalaxmi ) 119 & min temp 22.3c
Colaba 111.6 & min temp 23.6c
Scruz 59.2 & min temp 23.5c

Rajesh said...

Karan: The next Low pressure is expected in Bay off the Odisha coast around 19th of June..maybe 18th as an UAC and then Low on 19th. Expected to cross Odiaha coast by 20th.
Depending on ttrack, we can expect good rain along the track, which may include M.P. and adjoining U.P. or if slightly South then Vidharbha.

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