Saturday, June 13, 2015

South West Monsoon Moves into Konkan, South Madhya Maharashtra and Southern Coastal Gujarat as a weak current, and into Rest of Interior Karnataka and Coastal AP on Saturday 13th June..

West Coast Off Shore trough Strengthens in the Northern parts and weakens off Kerala as estimated.

But (not as estimated) the Hight Pressure Ridge in the jet streams around Central India has started to weaken and de-stabilise..

As the Northern region of the trough strengthens, the Monsoon moves into Konkan and Southern regions of coastal Gujarat, we see the anticipated rains.

Mumbai Colaba received 15 mms and Scruz 7 mms in the day on Saturday (earlier estimated between 15-20 mms by Vagaries).
Alibag received 31 mms, and Ratnagiri 5 mms and Panaji 5 mms. Dahanu a meagre 3 mms. 

As the Monsoon progressed inland, Ahmadnagar got 29 mms on Saturday.
Nagpur got a massive storm with 81 mms on Saturday.Akola got 13 mms Saturday.

Surat received 13 mms on Saturday (75 mms overnight). Expecting the monsoon to move in on Sunday as mentioned yesterday.

Rains post noon dumped 49 mms till the evening in Kolkata. And 14 mms in Bhubaneshwar.

Mumbai Forecast:
Sunday 14th: Rain and showers...30-40 mms.
Monday 15th: More rains..Overcast with occasional showers....60-65 mms. Max temp 27c.
Tuesday: Overcast with showers....30-35 mms.

Kolkata forecast is a repeat...Thunder shower on Sunday, with around 20 mms precipitation.Monday  rains may be a bit less, with around 10-12 mms.
Some pre monsoon showers/thunder showers in Bhubaneshwar on Sunday and Monday..with around 10 mms on Monday.Max around 37c.
Will the Monsoon move in till 19th June in Kolkata ? 

Pakistan: Some isolated Regions in Upper Punjab (Pakistan) will get Thunder squalls and showers. 
Gujrat in Pakistan Punjab has a possibility of light rain in the vicinity on Sunday .Sunday & Monday high may touch 40c. Monday can see a shower with around 5-10 mms of rain. 

Hot spots like Dadu and Sibbi may touch 47c.


14 comments:

Nilesh Ladhad said...

Please also forecast for Valsad.

rajesh said...

Nilesh: With proper Monsoon yet to advance, I see light rains upto 5-7 mms next 4/5 days. Max around 34c.

Nilesh Ladhad said...

Thanks sir

Karan Kumbhar said...

Sir
will tge weakening of ridge help advance of monsoon ?

Dattaraj Joshi said...

Hyderabad is getting moderate to heavy rains since last three days

Atul said...

Sir,
What's forecast for Pune, Satara? No proper monsoon rain over here. I guess its due to weak current as you mentioned in earlier post. When we can expect to gain strength?

Thanks,
Atul.

rajesh said...

Karan: The monsoon progress in the remaining areas in East and North will still remain slow. Like i said, i feel the Eastern states may not get monsoon till next 5 days. Central India may see advance next 3 days (of monsoon). But delhi not before June end.

Atul: Interior Mah monsoon remains weak next week also. Shall give Pune and Satara forecast Sunday evening.

Vinod Desai said...

Sir,
We are getting good rains since morning in mumbai.

Junaid said...

New Panvel June rainfall readings (mm)
8 th June - 7
12 th June - 4
13 th June - 17
14 th June - 20
Total rain for June till 8:30 am today - 48 mm

Ishan Vajpeyi said...

When will the Monsoon reach central Uttar Pradesh?

Sarvesh said...

How are Mumbai's lakes doing?

Gurdeep Singh Kalsi said...

What r lake levels in mumbai

rajesh said...

Ishan: A Low is expected in the Bay off Odisha coast around 19th June...Depending on track, which will most likely be W/NW, we may see Monsoon into East U.P. on 22nd.

rajesh said...

Putting up Mumbai lakes levels today