BB-18, WML, located as on Monday evening at 11.7N and 88.7E. Pressure 1004 mb, stationary, but slight deepening. Winds at 20 knts.
Weak convective bands are seen around a circulation centre.
With moderate wind shear (upto 20 knts), and an encouraging Pole ward flow (energy transfer), we see a slight strengthening of BB-18 to a depression by Tuesday evening. System will move Westwards.
Chennai and coastal SST is now 29c.
We can expect the system to cross Northern TN coast around Chennai by Wednesday. At land cross near Chennai, winds will be around 35 knts, and rainfall in 24 hrs period will be around 50 mms.
On Wednesday, interior TN will get good precipitation and heavy falls in many districts.
There is a possibility of the pulse crossing into the Arabian Sea, and form a UAC off Karnataka coast by Friday15th.
Precipitation is expected to spread by then into Karnataka and Southern Maharashtra and S.Konkan.
Mumbai will see lower night temperatures next few nights. Lows will be around 20/21c at Scruz.
But, we may see the nights getting warmer after Thursday 14th. Cloudy weather will be the cause for warmer nights and light rains on Friday 15th and Saturday 16th.for Mumbai.
Pune will see pleasant nights on Tuesday 12th and Wednesday 13th, with lows around 12/13c. But, end of the week, clouds appear, and light rains expected on Friday 15th/Saturday 16th.
Excellent compilation of life cycle of typhoon Haiyan by vagarian Santosh Subramanian (Kolkata)...see here