Sunday, November 24, 2013

Posted Monday @ 2.00 pm:
Severe Cyclone Lehar is now located at 12N and 91E. Moving at 15 knts/hour. It is now seen to have another distinct cloud mass north of the main cloud mass. The centre estimated at 989 mb is located in the main mass of cloud.Winds around the centre are estimated at 55 knts, Cat 1

Shear tendency is showing a decrease to the west, hence intensification to next stage possible.
May reach VSC or Cat the next 24 hrs. Can strengthen more to Cat 3 after 36/48hrs, but will weaken to Cat 2 on land fall.

The system may move NW and then turn NNW as it nears the AP coast...

Next Update on here at 9 pm IST

Posted Sunday 24th Nov Evening:

A hat-trick of Cyclones from the Bay! Phailin, Helen and Lehar..all three coming within almost a little more than a month. 

The Current cyclone ,Lehar, At 10.9N and far from the Indian mainland coast at 93.5E, it is about to cross the Andaman Islands as a cyclone. Crossing South, Port Blair has measured 24 mms in the 9 hrs till 5.30 pm Sunday.

As on Sunday 24th evening, the cyclone (BB-20) is located at 10.9N and 93.5E. Winds at 45 knts are formed round the centre due to the 996 mb pressure.
Now, as per the parameters and indication today, we see a initial NW movement. The decreasing shear tendency will ensure a further strengthening of the system in the next 24/36 hrs.

Presently in TS status as per the current strength, will jump to Cat1 by Monday. Estimated position by Monday, 12 hrs hence,  around 12N and 92E.

Vagaries estimates the track to take a NW trend now. Off the AP coast, when around East of Vizag, it is estimated that the cyclone will take a North turn and cross the Odisha coast. Judging from present track speed and resistance, it can cross the coast by the 28th evening, as, at the most, Cat 2.

On approaching the land, dry air will force and restrict the further strengthening of the system.
We shall track and monitor the movements for further tracking.

Suggestion and "hope" for Chennaites: An Easterly wave approaching is going to give very good bountiful precipitation to TN from 2nd December thru 4 days...rains from the systems (BB-19/20) have been very low, compared to what can come.. Just hold on, and forget the cyclones....

A sudden downpour on Saturday night poured 108 mms of rain for Bangalore City. The Winter total, tottering at 133 mms, suddenly jumped to 241 mms , now just short by 20 mms of the average. Yelahanka measured 12 cms..
A localsed downpour gave just 23 mms to the Air Port region.

Saturday, Southern Maharashtra got some isolated rains. Nanded measured 32 mms, Latur 10 mms, Parbhani 6 mms and Hingoli 1 mm.

No WDs for the North soon, but Northern Sub Continent region is in for a dry cold spell from early December, as a high pressure dominates the region...foggy days and nights will prevail..

Super Rainfall in many parts of South Tamil Nadu particularly Kanyakumari, Virudhunagar & Tirunelveli dt  as of 24th November>>....see Pradeep's Page

NEM Page Updated

Video of Cyclone Helen compiled by santosh..see here


Unknown said...
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Unknown said...

Change IN Weather Heavy passing showers in Vasai in certain spots.what a turn around unexpected.

vel72 said...

After very successful monsoon from 2004-2011 in TN,last year was a failure. Already TN having huge deficit of 30%,already all cyclone have skipped Tn.normally tn is get rain from easterlies/lpa/low but this it has been huge let down.

only hope for the TN is in the month of Dec. hope we get a good WML like what andhra had by end of season

vel72 said...
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Rajesh said...

Medium rain with big drops here at Mahalaxmi...9.30 pm IST

sset said...

correct vageries NEM pages shows entire TN in "BROWN" - entire TN in negative----.
For a change -> somebody from other blogs have written below statement "Chennai requires rain in any form.. even if it has to be a cyclone crossing above my head ;). So never say no to cyclone.. if you are a chennite"

Unknown said...

Rains in Mumbai , as BBC weather had already predicted right on spot.

Rajesh said...

BBC still , even now, shows clear for Sunday. Was showing clear to cloudy today

Rajesh said...

BBC still , even now, shows clear for Sunday. Was showing clear to cloudy today

Unknown said...

Are there any possibility for a new depression or a cyclone to form and hit TN in dec...will TN have normal NEM this year

Abhijit Modak said...

Portblair, Andaman Island recorded massive
213 mms rain ending 8.30am today with
winds gusting upto 130/kmph.. So by this
one can know how strong cyclone Lehar is at
present !!

Abhijit Modak said...

Aurangabad recorded massive 90 mms rain
ending 8.30am today.. One can see in sat
image how thick clouding layer around
Aura'bad !! Thanks to TC Helen for sending
pulse over Maha..

Abhijit Modak said...

Colaba, Mumbai recorded 6.4 mms rain ending 8.30am today.

emkay said...

Quite interesting that SoBo to Vasai got sprinkles but extended Eastern suburbs did not get any !! Were these rains from Western side ??
Interesting quote from IMD in some newspaper - Rains due to Seasonal change !!

Abhijit Modak said...

@emkay : Showers & clouding were from east to west only !! We can see it in radar animation also ! But as moisture content was more toward coastline than in land so it precipitated at isolated places near coastal belt!!

Badlapur had drops falling for few mins period around 9.30pm last night !! But humidity was on lower side at 64% at that time..

As per report coming Kalyan also had some light shower last night !

Hrishikesh said...

are western suburbs expected to get rain today??

Unknown said...

Hope chennai get's some showers before the monsoon ends this year by december 2013.

Pavan said...

Very very isolated heavy showers with gusty winds lightning and thunder lashing parts of east northeastern pune since from last 30min, rains are as per vagaries forecast

Pavan said...

Very very isolated heavy showers with gusty winds lightning and thunder lashing parts of east northeastern pune since from last 30min, rains are as per vagaries forecast

Abhijit Modak said...

Rain lashing entire Pune with loud thundering and lightning striking..

1st June..SWM Progress  For the first time after 2014 this summer season (april-may) , Delhi Safdarjung  has not recorded a single heatwave....