Severe Cyclone Lehar is now located at 12N and 91E. Moving at 15 knts/hour. It is now seen to have another distinct cloud mass north of the main cloud mass. The centre estimated at 989 mb is located in the main mass of cloud.Winds around the centre are estimated at 55 knts, Cat 1
Shear tendency is showing a decrease to the west, hence intensification to next stage possible.
May reach VSC or Cat 2.in the next 24 hrs. Can strengthen more to Cat 3 after 36/48hrs, but will weaken to Cat 2 on land fall.
The system may move NW and then turn NNW as it nears the AP coast...
Next Update on here at 9 pm IST
Posted Sunday 24th Nov Evening:
A hat-trick of Cyclones from the Bay! Phailin, Helen and Lehar..all three coming within almost a little more than a month.
The Current cyclone ,Lehar, At 10.9N and far from the Indian mainland coast at 93.5E, it is about to cross the Andaman Islands as a cyclone. Crossing South, Port Blair has measured 24 mms in the 9 hrs till 5.30 pm Sunday.
As on Sunday 24th evening, the cyclone (BB-20) is located at 10.9N and 93.5E. Winds at 45 knts are formed round the centre due to the 996 mb pressure.
Now, as per the parameters and indication today, we see a initial NW movement. The decreasing shear tendency will ensure a further strengthening of the system in the next 24/36 hrs.
Presently in TS status as per the current strength, will jump to Cat1 by Monday. Estimated position by Monday, 12 hrs hence, around 12N and 92E.
Vagaries estimates the track to take a NW trend now. Off the AP coast, when around East of Vizag, it is estimated that the cyclone will take a North turn and cross the Odisha coast. Judging from present track speed and resistance, it can cross the coast by the 28th evening, as, at the most, Cat 2.
On approaching the land, dry air will force and restrict the further strengthening of the system.
We shall track and monitor the movements for further tracking.
Suggestion and "hope" for Chennaites: An Easterly wave approaching is going to give very good bountiful precipitation to TN from 2nd December thru 4 days...rains from the systems (BB-19/20) have been very low, compared to what can come.. Just hold on, and forget the cyclones....
A sudden downpour on Saturday night poured 108 mms of rain for Bangalore City. The Winter total, tottering at 133 mms, suddenly jumped to 241 mms , now just short by 20 mms of the average. Yelahanka measured 12 cms..
A localsed downpour gave just 23 mms to the Air Port region.
Saturday, Southern Maharashtra got some isolated rains. Nanded measured 32 mms, Latur 10 mms, Parbhani 6 mms and Hingoli 1 mm.
No WDs for the North soon, but Northern Sub Continent region is in for a dry cold spell from early December, as a high pressure dominates the region...foggy days and nights will prevail..
Super Rainfall in many parts of South Tamil Nadu particularly Kanyakumari, Virudhunagar & Tirunelveli dt as of 24th November>>....see Pradeep's Page
NEM Page Updated
Video of Cyclone Helen compiled by santosh..see here