Friday, November 22, 2013

Posted Friday Morning @11.30 am IST:

As per Vagaries, Severe Cyclone Helen Crosses Land :
As per detailed Sat Imagery and estimate of system centre, as on 05Z/22,  it could be put to conclusion that the centre of the severe cyclone Helen, has crossed the coast of Andhra Pradesh (India) near 16.2N and 81.4E, near the town of Narsapur 16.2N and 81.4E). As the system weakened slightly prior to touching coast, prevailing winds are strong at 55 knts ,and pressure maintained at 990 mb. Absence of high rising clouds prevalent, as cloud top temperatures are lower at centre is -16c.

Very heavy rains now likely on Friday in Central and Northern coastal AP..upto 150-175 mms next 24 hrs. As clouds will spread, Andhra Pradesh will get good precipitation in the interiors ranging from 30-100 mms. Hyderabad will get heavy showers from Friday.

Rains spread to Southern Maharashtra and N.I.Karnataka on Saturday.
Cloud bands will stretch to the NE and cover Odisha and Kolkata.

Another Low forms in the Southern Bay on Friday evening, around the 10N 95E region. Initially, parameters show the system (BB-20) heading WNW towards Southern Andaman Islands.
If the system remains South of 12/13N till the 86E region, there is a chance of it turning WSW (towards Chennai). If it moves above 12/13N, and comes west of 86E, it  would move NW then.

Meanwhile, the WD over UAE/Oman is moving East into Pakistan. Northern and Central Pakistan can get rain from Friday thru Sunday. Heavy rains expected in the North.
Cities in Sindh like Hyderabad, Nawabshah and Sukkar can also expect showers. Karachi will be partly cloudy with light showers expected on Saturday.
WD in India will be restricted to the Northern hilly states.

Dubai received 22 mms last night


Hrishikesh said...

what about mumbai??

Dattaraj said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dattaraj said...

I don't think Hyderabad will get heavy rains. And N.I Karanataka, S.I Maharashtra too will not get heavy rains. Well settled chilly winds resists the System.

Let us see..

Unknown said...

Chennai escaped the heavy rains good for them there will be no flooding. hope it only drizzles there.

Rajesh said...

Hrishikesh: Chances of cloudy weather or light rains in outer townships by Sunday or Monday . I would put this as a pulse in the form of a UAC is expected to move inlands from the system, Helen.

Dattaraj: Possibility of rain was given for Hyderabad as the system moves West. Even if it weakens, a UAC could bring some rains to N.I. Karnataka and S.I. Mah..

Krishna said...


Any idea on why even in this NE season lows are evading TN.

Another system looks probably may not hit TN coast


Unknown said...

hahhahhahaa - SSET TN will become a desert, look's like' may your words come true.because all lows are moving away

sset said...

It is natures warning bells for our weather scientist to take seriously with better models-impact on agriculture, poor farmers- growing population with no water - repeated NEM failures for 5 years. (a) persistent SWM till end october (b)sharp Increase in massive rains for GUJ/RAJ - negative correlation for SE India (sharp decrease in rains) - deserts /dry regions are shifting to southern India/Sri Lanks (c)except for few odd weak lows which elude TN, no NEM clouds coverage (d)weakening of NEM currents (d)NEM are so weak - SE interior KAR - 0mm, rayalseema 0mm, TN - very very less rain, AP-less rain.
As of now India driest state is TN, driest region is interior TN,SE interior KAR, AP-Rayalseema. Apparently all regions are co-located.

Abhijit Modak said...

Some Maharashtra cities min temp below for today(23-11-2013) :

Pune 10.9c
Nashik 11.4c
Aurangabad 16.3c
Solapur 17.8c
Ratnagiri 18.7c
Nagpur 19.1c
Akola 19.2c
Panji, Goa 19.6c
Mumbai(SCZ) 19.7c

Some around Mumbai AWS min temp for today :

Karjat 14.5c
Palghar 17.8c

Hrishikesh said...

Thnx for the informative answer would love to see some information on few important city forecast

Abhijit Modak said...

Hyderabad, AP max temp 23.4c today with 5mm rainfall till 5.30pm today !!

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