Friday, November 29, 2013

Posted on Friday 29th Night:

Rains increasing from the TN coast thru into the interior from Saturday onwards. Rain spells will continue thru the next week as an easterly trough sets in with a few embedded UACs. This will culminate as a depression forms in the Bay on the 4th, and approaches the TN coast around the 6/7th of December.

A upper air trough runs east -west along Central Mah. Winds from an off shore trough will inte act. Light rain in South Maharashtra on Saturday, and gradulally increasing as rain moves into Madhya Maharashtra from Goa and South Konkan from Sunday.Heavy rains in S.Konkan and Goa on Monday and Tuesday. 
So winter gone for a toss in Maharshtra next few days.

Temperatures do not see a fall in Gujarat also this coming week.

Weekend Forecast for Some Cities: Saturday 30th November and Sunday 1st December..
Saturday and Sunday: Warm with East winds blowing. Result will be dry feel with less "heat feel" in spite of day temperatures at 34c. Nights will be around 19/20c.
Monday will be partly cloudy and warm. But night temperatures will increase by 2/3c. Some thunder clouds development in the eastern sky.
Outer townships in the east will be cloudy by afternoon and evening on Monday. Thunder clouds (Cb clouds) showing up late Monday afternoon.

Saturday and Sunday will be partly cloudy, with nights around 18/19c, and days will be at 30/31c.
Monday will be partly cloudy, with thunder clouds showing up by late afternoon. Shower possible in some parts of city on Monday evening. (5-10 mms).

Chennai: The road is now open ! A series of rain spells will keep Chennai wet and rainy thru the next 8 days.
Saturday will be cloudy with a few spells of rain, around 10 mms.
Sunday and Monday see an increase in rain intensity and frequency of showers. Rain amounts would be an average of about 10-15 mms on Sunday increasing to 20-25 mms on Monday. A few heavy showers in some areas.

Bangalore will be cloudy on Saturday, with a shower on Sunday evening. Also chance of a thunder shower on Monday evening in some areas. The temperature range will be between 27-19c on Saturday and Sunday, with a cooler day on Monday.

Goa: Seems sunny Goa will be cloudy with light rain this weekend. A thunder shower expected in some regons on Monday.

Delhi NCR: Clear skies. Sunny days, but good NW winds in the day will keep the day below 26c. Nights will drop by a couple of degrees to 9c from Sunday night.

Cyclone Lehar Top 10 Maximum 24 hrs Rainfall in mm updated on Pradeep's Page...

Spectacular first ever image of Earth Taken by Mars Color Camera aboard India’s Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM) spacecraft....See Space News Page.

As usual, we have got the life cycle video of "Lehar" from Santosh Subramanian....see here.


Krishna said...

HI Rajesh,

everything right about this NEM this time. It just has to rain here.

looks like there is a great chance of lots of rain this december as I have been going through several models. Easterly winds are picking up a lot. we can expect something here.


Krishna said...


Looks like the easterly wave is picking up speed. all models show lot of activity in the bay expecially in SW bay . It just has to rain here.


sset said...

correct as per Rajesh sir forecast a week before we can see easterly wave BUT will this produce rains to wipe out huge drought conditions of TN/SE India/Sri Lanka - is to be seen?? TN at least requires 2 months rain for compensation. Infact NEM was delayed by 2 months - oct/nov no rain at all. All cyclones after phalian turned out to be useless. They missed TN and also they do not produce any meaningful rains even to north AP - all weakened once they reached Indian coast - this should not happen for current easterly wave...

Abhijit Modak said...

Pune cloudy and cool as max temp is 26.7c today..

GSB said...

Hi everybody,

How is everyone...I'm posting after a long gap...

Great NEWS....

"Mangalyaan successfully cruising towards Mars as it leaves Earth's orbit"

Lets hope the spacecraft reaches the Mars orbit in September 2014...


Arpit Sharma said...

The 'quick drop' & 'pick up'
feature of two cities of UP i.e.
Kanpur and Lucknow is the main
reason for such low temperatures
beating the top cities like Hisar,
Amritsar etc.
Last year also Lucknow minimum
temperature dropped below 0c
for 2 consecutive days and
remained near 0c for almost 6-7
days. Same applies to Kanpur also.
This year also i am expecting 0c
for both of these cities. These
cities are in north India and
temperature stability is less in
comparison to other cities leading
to freezing temperatures in peak
winter season. Hisar is also having
similar story but slightly higher
Amritsar & New Delhi are very
much stable are far as
temperature is concerned.
Amritsar is the coldest known city
of the country and it is even if it
records higher minimum
temperature than Lucknow/
Kanpur. Only Adampur in
Jalandhar district beats Amritsar &
sometimes with big margines too.
Also Una city in HP gives tough
competition to Amritsar/
Adampur and it would be correct
to put Una in the category of
these cities.
Una city in HP is almost a plain area with an average elevation of just 400 m.
Till now Una is topper in terms of minimum temperature. Rest all cities like Amritsar, Hisar, Churu, Narnaul etc. are way behind. Lets see what happens in the near future. I'll update the temp of all cities here everyday...

Rajendran G.B said...

Respected Sir, I am a farmer from Gudimangalam block.Udamalpet taluk,Tirupur district, Tamilnadu.
The rain meters readings at my farm is as follows - August 29.8.13.=12mm.September 29.9.13.=36mm. 30.9.13. = 3mm.
October 17.10.13. = 5mm. 19.10.13. = 88mm.20.10.13. =20mm.
November 4.11.13. =28mm. 5.11.13. =13mm.
Sir, I do not understand this part of NEM
"The rainfall over south peninsula towards the end of southwest monsoon season is mainly in the interior districts and it generally occurs in the afternoon , evening or early part of the night. As the season advances the rainfall is mainly in the coastal districts with the interior districts getting less rain."
" As the season advances the rainfall is mainly in the coastal districts"
Now Sir as it is December has the season advanced and is only to coastal districts ?
Does the present situation means that our Rainfall is over ?
Please explain as we have already severely affected by 2012 NEM deficit, now 2013 NEM to us ????????

Rajesh said...

Krishna Kumar Bulusu: Yes, surely expecting the rains to pick up in December, and starting right away. The easterly wave, a trough is already supporting an UAC, which we had estimated, and could become a low/WML and move NW into Southern TN.

Surely rains will exceed 30 cms in Chennai in December.

Rajendran GB: The systems from the Bay are the sole source and main source of rainfall for TN in NEM season. The systems form from Typhoons and from cold surges coming South from Siberian highs. For this please refer to the NEM note 2011 in archives Page of Vagaries.
Now, the movement of the systems are determined to some extent by the sub tropical ridge at 100/200 hpa levels. The fluctuating from west and east determines whether the system moves into the coast or recurves Northwards.

So, the entire TN can get good rains i NEM if thelows and systems move into the TN coast.
Also, easterly waves have embedded systems in them..

Now, more rains are expected in december in interior also. as one more depression is moving towards the east coast...its track may not be very favourable for you...your region falls almost to the west of least rains are expected here in next 2/3 days from system coming soon.
shall mention Tirpur district specially whenever possibe

Arpit: very good analysis. Would like to monitor these 2 cities regularly ...

Rajesh said...

Shiraz reports heavy rains in Mahableshwar now...@ 8.30 pm IST Sunday

Unknown said...

yesterday Vasai had received heavy showers for 2 mins in certain spots

Arpit Sharma said...

New Delhi(S'jung) made warm
entry into December, recorded a
high of 28c today, never touched
28c on 1st December in the past
14 years. The data from Ogimet
proves this:-
2013- 28.0c
2012- 23.1c
2011- 26.5c
2010- 24.6c
2009- 24.7c
2008- 24.5c*
2007- 26.6c
2006- 26.1c
2005- 21.7c
2004- 27.2c
2003- 24.3c
2002- 25.2c
2001- 26.9c
2000- 23.7c
1999- 26.9c
* apprx,not accurate

Arpit Sharma said...

Minimum temperature in some
cities(plains) today(min 10c):-
1: Muzaffarnagar- 4.4c(Situated in
NW UP, lowest in the country
today, the Saharanpur-Meer ut-
Bijnor section always records
such exceptional minimum
2: Una- 5c(Capable of hitting
subzero temps in December,
nearest competitor Adampur,
some places in district got
snowfall in Jan,12)
3: Adampur- 5.2c(Lowest in
Punjab & the town mostly records
the lowest min temp in the
4: Ludhiana- 7c(Coldest city of
Punjab after Adampur this
5: Lucknow- 7.3c(as always :p)
Hissar- 7.5c(Lowest in Haryana)
6: Narnaul- 7.6c(Touched -3c in
January, 2013)
7: Amritsar- 8c(Leading city of
Punjab & India way behind this
year for unknown reasons)
8: Anandpur Sahib- 8c(A small city
in Eastern Punjab, recorded a max
of just 5.7c in Jan,13)
9: Jammu- 8.1c(Never touched
10: Sriganganagar- 8.3c(Recorded
slightly higher avg min temp this
11: Agra- 8.3c(The taj city slipped
below 0c in Jan,13. Always
records less temp than Delhi)
12: Churu- 8.5c(Coldest city of
Rajasthan in winter, touches
almost 50c in Summer)
13: Chandigarh- 8.6c(The tricity
touched 0c few times but never
gone below 0c, recorded max of
6.5c in Jan,13)
14: Kurukshetra- 9c(Normal for
this time of the year, also never
came in the list of Haryana
15: Patiala- 9c(South Punjab
city,capable of hitting below 0c)
16: Sultanpur- 9.2c(A city on the
lucknow-varanas i route, effect of
lucknow chill here)
17: Ambala- 9.2c(Wettest city of
Haryana after Panchkula)
18: Kanpur- 9.3c(Somehow the
city lost to Lucknow today, will
bounce back surely)
19: Pathankot- 9.3c(Very near to
the mountains,RS Dam site in the
district is probably the wettest
place of Punjab,also recorded
single digit max temp in Jan,13)
20: Udaipur- 9.4c(City of Lakes
chilled today)
21: Bhiwani- 9.4c(Apprx 125 km
west of Delhi, its almost a desert
city with just 350 mm rain)
22: Varanasi- 9.5c(Seems the
whole Lucknow- Varanasi section
chilled today, below normal by 3
23: Meerut- 9.8c(Initially the city
records lowest temp in NCR but
after mid November loses its
position, recorded max temp
below 7.5c in Jan,13)
24: Delhi S'jung- 10c( Well
somehow the city got into the
list,may be 0c becomes reality for
the mega city this season).

Abhijit Modak said...

Mumbai SCZ min temp 25.3c today ! So temp condition like Apr- May in Dec !!

Karjat min temp 23.4c with 2mm rainfall ending 8.30am today.

Pune min temp 21.5c with 2mm rainfall ending 8.30am today.

Abhijit Modak said...

Chennai rainfall ending 8.30am today : MNBKM 4mm, NGBKM 2.7mm

Chennai pressure 1014.5 hPa at 8.30am today !!

Krishna said...


Yes at last i am seeing a heavy spell of continuos rain for the past one hour..A great sign in a long time...

This has to continue for another 3 days...


Unknown said...

Came from Pune, saw thunder clouds building up over the ghats - closer to Pune, the weather seemed to 'clear' up as I descended the ghat and crossed into Mumbai. The folks whom I met in Pune mentioned of overnight rains in the city

Abhijit Modak said...

Chennai rainfall till 5.30pm today : MNBKM 34.9mm, NGBKM 11.5mm

Pavan said...

heavy rain lashed pune this evening with thunder and lightning rain was even accompanied by gusty winds at intervals

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