Tuesday, November 26, 2013

BB-20 : Estimated crossing time worked out by several international models was around 1600 hrs IST, on 28th Thursday...just South of Machillipatnum. Winds approx at 30 knts...

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Posted @ 11.30 pm IST

Lehar now a TS, located at 15.3N and 83.8E, has depleted in strength as forcasted here after crossing the 85E line. Winds at 55 knts, it is at T 3.8 and likely to weaken more . Likely to cross the North AP coast between Kakinada and Vizag, by Thursday evening.( Probably between 6pm -8 pm)....Rains expected in East Godavri District and Vizag.

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Wednesday @ 8.30 pm IST:

Lehar crosses 85E, and hence has started weakening..Back to 55 knts and out of Cat 1 stage...also now tracking NW and crossed the 15N latitude at 15N ,84.2E....dry air has crept into the centre, choking the cyclone.....

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Tuesday Night @11.30 pm IST:

Lehar tracks NW from last posting and is located at 13.3N and 87.8E. In spite of weaker shear and stable convergence, strength remains constant at T4.0, with core winds estimated at 65-70 knts and pressure 984 mbar. 

As mentioned earlier, it will  track WNW or NW, and encounter a dry flow on coming to the 85E position. After that, we would see the hampering of further strengthening, or even weakening to some extent. Even the waters get cooler nearer the coast.

Expected to cross North Andhra coast by 28th noon. So, Vagaries maintains the slight NNW turn on approaching coastline.

On reaching land, will track NW and weaken. A trough will guide the system in the NW, but weaken it rapidly. 
The "gateway" is then open for the much publicised Easterly Wave to take over. The shape of things to come for Chennai.

Post Lehar rainfall would be restricted to Southern most Odisha, South Chattisgarh and adjoining MP and Vidarbh. Nagpur may be cloudy and light showers in vicinity on 30th November.

Some regions of Western Maharashtra got the thunder showers popping up on Tuesday 26th. Outer township of Mumbai (Eastern) , Badlapur, had very heavy thunder storms on Tuesday night, and surrounding towns of Dombivali, Karjat and Kalyan had light rains.
Mahableshwar had showers in the evening, measuring 8 mms.

Interior townships around Mumbai in the East can see thunder clouds "poping up" in isolated pockets again on Wednesday 27th. Possibly, a thunder cloud can drift over Northern Mumbai townships.
On Wednesday, Pune or the ghat regions can also see the thunder storm in patches. 

Thursday onwards will be dry...forecast for the weekend ( Mumbai) will be put up on Thursday.

The temperatures in the Northern region of the sub continent have risen, and night temperatures are upto 4/5c above normal. I think the nights will drop back to normal levels from Friday night. Would remain around normal levels till 3rd/4th December.

Delhi NCR which has seen temperatures rise, would fall to normal levels from Friday. Days will remain warmer  (26/27c) for a few more days.


Hrishikesh said...

still no rain in mumbai western suburbs

Hrishikesh said...

still no rain in mumbai western suburbs

Krishnakumar Bulusu said...

Suprisingly closer to south coast AP the cyclone....Chennai did not expect though is overcast now


sset said...

seems similar to "Mahasen" cyclone during may 2013- very near to TN but also very FAR from TN.

sset said...

now very near to north AP/Orissa - so TN out of question.

sam khan said...

very humid inspite of clear weather in Vasai.

Neeraj said...

Temp little above normal here. Is the fall to normal levels coming ?

Nilesh Ladhad said...

so, no rain in sambalpur.

Neeraj said...

Any particular reasons for warmer than normal conditions in our parts ? Is it going to change in the coming days ?

Nilesh Ladhad said...

its cloudy since 12 noon

rajesh said...

Neeraj: Answered your question on Current weather Page with map...

Neeraj said...

Thanks rajesh sir