Friday, November 15, 2013

Posted Friday Afternoon 3.30 pm IST Position:
BB-18, depression at 1000 mb and 30 knts has moved West from last Update...  blog...next Update of BB-18 and WD at 11 pm IST


Posted Friday Morning:

BB-18, Depression, is located at 9.8N and 83.9E as on 8.30 am IST Friday.
Now, seeing the current strength and height of the system, it will be steered and guided  by the 200 hpa winds direction.

Situation is tricky at the moment.....The guiding winds are turning NE jst South of the 9/10N Latitude line. North of this bifurcation latitude, winds at 200 hpa are SE.
The system centre should track above the 10N line, to get a NW steering. On this situation, International models show divergent views.
The Actual Position v/s Forecasted

4 comments:

Krishnakumar Bulusu said...

Hi Rajesh,

All these tracks are much favorable for rains in North TN coast. But this has been a agonising wait.

Just today morning clouds have started building up it . Still Hazy sunshine.

Looks like a very slow moving storm. I guess if it dissipates a D/DD in northn tn coast should post lot of rain than wind.

Regards
Krishna

baboo chachoo said...

Good the system near chennai from Monday' rapidly weaken's, so rains will be very less next week onwards.good there will be no flooding problems in chennai.

sset said...

If it does not rain now then TN and much of SE India will become desert. Third year of drought. Krishna correct it been 1 month delay, december NEM will come to an end. In fact for drought to go away, TN and SE interior India will need at least 5 depressions to cross. Let us if this rains (hope it does not become like cyclone Jaal - no rain).

sset said...

2013 monsoon contrast -> SW monsoon 17 depressions - all effortless crossed central India, longest duration, GUJ state with 24hrs record rains - NE monsoon hardly any probability to survive - 1 depression with great efforts - probably shortest duration.