Posted on Wednesday Night @11.30 pm IST:
BB-18 refuses to budge.....located at 11.4N and 84.5E..that translates to .5 degrees in the last 8 hours and 1 degree in the last 24 hrs.
At an estimated central pressure of 1003 mb, winds estimated at 25-30 knts, the depression is stagnated for the last 24 hrs.
SST ( 28c-30c) are not encouraging rapid growth as we had cautioned initially. Current MJO is in phase 3 (favourable) and amplitude less than 1 (not favourable).
With moderate vertical wind shear (15-20 knts), and ocean thermal energy at 80-100 KJ/CM square.
Consensus will go with slow intensification and at the most Deep Depression on land fall by Friday.
While Leh recorded a low of -11c on Wednesday morning, the lowest in the plains was 6.6c at Adampur (Punjab) and Muzaffarnagar (UP).
Posted on Wednesday Afternoon (3 pm IST Report):
BB-18 movement has staggered,but system has deepened to become a depression.
Since last report (on NEM Page) of Tuesday Night, the system has deepened to become a depression, and is at 1004 mb with core winds estimated between 25-30 knts, and gusts at 35 knts.
But the strengthening has staggered its movement, and has shifted only about 55 kms to the W/NW direction.
Hence, in the last 15 hrs, its movement has been from 11.4N, 85.5E to the current (2.30 pm IST Wednesday) location of 11.9N , 85E.
Very much slower than the previous 24 hrs tracking.
BB-18 centre is still 550 kms from the coast, and at current rate estimates, the land cross ( central Point) should be stretched by anther 24 hrs from our previous estimated time. Now, we can expect the centre of BB-18 to cross land by Friday morning/afternoon.
The TN coast can expect precipitation from Thursday evening.
Next Update at 11 pm IST Wednesday.