Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Latest Post of Thursday Night with Track Map on NEM Page...

Posted on Wednesday Night @11.30 pm IST:

BB-18 refuses to budge.....located at 11.4N and 84.5E..that translates to .5 degrees  in the last 8 hours and 1 degree in the last 24 hrs.
At an estimated central pressure of 1003 mb, winds estimated at 25-30 knts, the depression is stagnated for the last 24 hrs.
SST ( 28c-30c) are not encouraging rapid growth as we had cautioned initially. Current MJO is in phase 3 (favourable) and amplitude less than 1 (not favourable). 
With moderate vertical wind shear (15-20 knts), and ocean thermal energy at 80-100 KJ/CM square.
Consensus will go with slow intensification and at the most Deep Depression on land fall by Friday.


 While Leh recorded a low of -11c on Wednesday morning, the lowest in the plains was 6.6c at Adampur (Punjab) and Muzaffarnagar (UP).


Posted on Wednesday Afternoon (3 pm IST Report):

BB-18 movement has staggered,but system has deepened to become a depression. 
 Since last report (on NEM Page) of Tuesday Night, the system has deepened to become a depression, and is at 1004 mb with core winds estimated between 25-30 knts, and gusts at 35 knts. 
But the strengthening has staggered its movement, and has shifted only about 55 kms to the W/NW direction. 
Hence, in the last 15 hrs, its movement has been from 11.4N, 85.5E to the current (2.30 pm IST Wednesday) location of 11.9N , 85E.
Very much slower than the previous 24 hrs tracking.
 BB-18 centre is still 550 kms from the coast, and at current rate estimates, the land cross ( central Point) should be stretched by anther 24 hrs from our previous estimated time. Now, we can expect the centre of BB-18 to cross land by Friday morning/afternoon.
The TN coast can expect precipitation from Thursday evening.

Next Update at 11 pm IST Wednesday.



5 comments:

baboo chachoo said...

The system very unlikely to give rains more then 100mm in 2 days in chennai, but outside chennai possible.

Hrishikesh said...

Can the system move into arabian see nd bring clouding to mumbai

Hrishikesh said...

Can the system move into arabian see nd bring clouding to mumbai

sam khan said...

Goa will be lucky once more to receive showers light to moderate intensity with thunder possible.this will lead to clouding in Mumbai, but showers might be a hit and miss case and if possible' light in nature.

rajesh said...

Hrishikesh:BB-18 will send a pulse into the Arb Sea. But when the system crosses TN coast, the clouding will spread into the interior Karnataka and S.Mah regions. Pune will be cloudy then.

Mumbai will also be cloudy with chances of light rain later.

BB-18 will cross by Friday. We can expect good rains all over TN.
Chennai will get around 50 mms in initial 24 hrs, but Southern coast can expect more amounts.
Patches between Naggi and Kanya Kumari can get over 150 mms Fiday/Saturday.