Saturday, November 09, 2013

NEM Page Updated for those Interested...
Posted Monday 11th, afternoon:
The system from the Bay is now well marked, and could be numbered as BB-18.
BB-18 is at 11N and 88E, Monday afternoon, and its central pressure is at 1004 mb.
Conditions and parameters will allow it to track Westwards, and deepen to the depression stage by Tuesday. However, precipitation will be restricted to the seas till Tuesday.

On approaching the coast, we see SST resistance to strengthening. Vagaries would slightly modify its last estimate, and estimate BB-18 to cross land at North TN region, and precipitate fairly good amounts ( 40-60 mms) in North TN from Wednesday.

Pulse from BB-18 can form another Low in the Arabian Sea off Karntaka/Goa around 13th.

Another Update tonite by 11 pm IST.

Monday morning saw the expected drop in temperatures in Maharashtra. Mumbai was at 22c, and Pune dropped to 12.8c. Nasik was at 14.8c.
In the North too, the cities in the plains were between 10-12c, with Amritsar seeing 9.8c, Chandigarh 10.4c and Delhi Sjung 12.2c.


Posted on Friday Night @ 11.45 pm IST

A Low pressure forms in the Eastern Bay. Currently it is located at 13N and 97E. The adjoining trough will push the Low into the Andaman Islands  and will initially deepen. This Low is capable of reaching the TN coast if it cruises South of 15N.
The Low will move Westwards, and bring precipitation to the Bay Islands. If, the system remains South of the 15N line, it would take the Westerly course, and bring rains to the TN coast  by the time the clouding from the system reach the TN coast around the 13th of November.

The system will have enough strength on crossing the TN coast to bring good rainfall in TN from 13th -16th. 
Infact, I see the rains moving inland and covering the entire Southern Peninsula. from Wednesday 13th.

Major NEM rains will elude Chennai at least till Tuesday/Wednesday 12th/13th, when, as explained above, clouds and rains from the Low will approach the TN coast.
Chennai rains intensity will increase after 13th/14th for the next 4/5 days.
Nights in Chennai were 22c, and the minimum is expected to be in the 21/22c range this weekend. 

But, for the moment, next 3 days, Saturday thru Monday, the weather will be dry over both India and Pakistan. 

Ensuing Easterlies will keep the interior peninsula pleasant, and cities in interior Maharashtra will be around 30c. NW winds in the Northern plains will keep the day around 25c.

Mumbai skies will be hazy, and partly cloudy on Saturday. Nights will be distinctly nippy from Sunday Night, when (on Monday morning) we see a low of 20/21c at Scruz, and maybe 18c in the outer townships.
With clear skies after Saturday, the next date for clouds in Mumbai will be from 17th November. 
Vagaries' long term forecast indicates some rain for Mumbai on 17th and 18th November.

Nights also going to 13/14c by Monday morning in Nasik. Pune and Aurangabad.

Next 2/3 nights, we may see the night temperatures dropping by 2/3c in the Punjab, Delhi NCR and Haryana regions. 
Delhi NCR may hover around 12/14c and cities in Punjab around 10-13c.

WD-3 covers Kashmir and HP on Wednesday 13th. Another round of rain and snow in the region.


Unknown said...

wow fresh snow.

Krishna said...

HI Rajesh,

Thanks for brightest update for TN. atlast this will be life savor for tn coast line.

For now we are enjoying pleasant weather. just 30 C and nights are unsually cooler than normal.
I know it is not the chillness we see in northindia but for chennaiites this is very special. Some mist/dew in the morning..quite special indeed


Ron said...

there was a nice breeze blowing since today morning in mumbai..temps seem to have dipped a bit

Anonymous said...

People in Chennai have started worrying about latest BBC forecast..the system is expected to move towards North AP/Orissa from central bay..its already cool like December..if Chennai fails to get anything from this system also, 2014 summer will be horrible with severe water scarcity.

Unknown said...

chennai will have a bad monsoon this year, with below average rains.

Unknown said...

Anyways Chennai got some rains during south west monsoon. so it's ok if it rains less during north east left over monsoon.

  23rd June After a record 39 days (14may-21june), delhi safdarjung recorded below 40c temperature Data From Vag. Vineet☝ ------------------...