Friday, November 01, 2013

Thursday, 30th October: 
Coldest in the Hills was Chushul (Ladakh) at -7c. Lowest in Plains of India 11.5c at Nazibabad. 
Lowest in Maharashtra 11.6c at Jalgaon.

Lowest in Pakistan was 1c at Kalat
Coldest in Asia was Verkhoyansk  at -36c.

In the North, WD-1 has precipitated rain and snow on30th/31st October. The higher reaches of Kashmir (Gulmarg) and HP had the first snow of this season.
The precipitation amounts are mentioned by Arpit in the comments.
This year, the initial snowfall is very late, and should have occurred in Mid September,with the highest reaches getting the snowfall then. Some years, the higher reaches have got the first snowfall in end August also.
As explained in early October, the 200 hpa winds had initially retracted after coming Southwards up to Rajastahan. This was due to above normal heat in the Central Asia region in end September and early October.(See video explanation in vagaries meeting.Link on the right of this page).
For the Northern Sub Continent too, October was warmer then average,and many a cities were above normal.
See some Cities temperatures in October: 

But, with the monsoon axis sliding south, the WDs can now have access to the Northern Sub Continent regions. 
Another WD will affect the North from the 5th of November.

Charts show the low as a very weak circulation on the AP coast..and fizzling out. Some isolated thunder clouds are seen popping up in the Southern quadrant.So, parts of Chennai get its 31st Showers !

Now, the next step and development will be to monitor the East Coast trough. The trough shrinks due to the anti favourable conditions in the Northern parts, and remains as an off shore trough off the TN coast 2nd November. Should be effctive from 2nd/4th November for TN coast and Chennai. 
Chances of a good thunder storm in Chennai on Sunday 3rd, as the trough inter acts with a developing East-West trough. ..chances of the trough shifting more towards the South of 12N later...


Neeraj said...

very informative. i was wondering why it has been so warm this sept/oct. esp oct has been warmer than last year - last year the minimum temp in oct dipped to 7 C, this year did not get below 11 C here.
what is in the store for us here ? WD ? and cooling trend ? or above normal temp trend will continue ?

Rajesh said...

Neeraj: WD on 5th will come to western Nepal..updating tonite for Divali