Wednesday, July 14, 2010

The UAC embedded in the axis is positioned over east U.P. and north-est MP. Rains in the region may can continue for another day.
The W.D. over North-West India and neighbourhood has continued to persist as an upper air system, and couldstay put for another two days.
This may result in moist south-westerlies interacting with the W.D. and bringing rains to the north-west region next couple of days.
W.D. or monsoon, rains are always welcome and needed.

Also, as mentioned yesterday, the monsoon trough is likely to shift southwards from Thursday. Central peninsula regions could then hope for a renewed spell, especially M.P.
Some models forecast an UAC forming over west/central M.P. around Saturday. This could result in good weekend rains over Gujarat. Also, we could see the northern end of the western off shore trough gaining strenght around weekend on the North Konkan/south Gujarat coast.
FAQ about the west coast: West coast will continue to get the on going moderate rains till Sunday, after which I expect some increase.

Mumbai: Same estimate of moderate 20 mms of rain, in sudden showers, Thursday thru Saturday.
Increase in rain frequency with heavy spells on Sunday/Monday, with around 40-50 mms of rain .

Yesterday in the blog, I mentioned that weather prediction models have estimated the formation of a low over the Bay by the 20th. and the
The Pacific has formed a typhoon, named Conson, which is bracing up to hit the Philippines. Conson, may stike Phillipines and after entering East China Sea, it could undergo further intensification,
This could have implications on the low in the bay. NCEP has also mentioned the formation possibility. (Some models/IMD mention of a low forming as early as Thursday. I personally think it could be around the 19th/20th).

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hi Rajesh,

I dont know if you remember me.

It's nice to read your comments on the Monsoon. Would like to see your expert advice with respect to the monsoon in SIndh, Karachi in particular where I live.

My email is tyronejude@gmail.com. Pls do write and tell me of any significant moonsoonal weather for our city.

Thanks

Tyrone