Saturday, July 31, 2010
The current low, now over west M.P./Gujarat at 998 mb, is maintaining its precipitation strenght. With Good rainfall along its path, and good capacity to attract cloud mass from the Arabian Sea, it has generously drenched Central India, Maharashtra coast, and many pockets of Gujarat too.
A vortex (see map) in the north Arabian sea has suddenly increased precipitation along the north maharashtra coast (MUmbai) on Friday.Vortex expected to merge with the incoming system.
Keeping up the trend, like the previous low, this system should wipe out the "red" region totally.
Well, as a reader has asked,, could it now track SW ? Difficult ! My estimate is that a weakening system should move, along the axis, west-northwest, into Rajasthan. Precipitation will also shift from M.P. to Konkan,Gujarat and South Rajasthan from Saturday. At this rate, Konkan and Gujarat should be piling up in surplus.
More Rains for this weekend (Saturday thru Monday) in South Rajasthan, Gujarat, especially coastal Gujarat and Konkan getting very heavy falls on Sunday (upto 150 mms in pockets) in 24 hrs,and then the wet patch rolling into Sindh coast from Tuesday.
What next for the week ?? See a system on the east coast of Thailand ! Take your binocs and lets watch out for a pulse emerging from it in the bay ! Taking a clue from this forecast map of 6th. Aug from "Weather Zone"
Standing out prominently is the rainfall at Dehra Dun. 364 mms in 24 hrs eneded Saturday morning. Another noteworthy reading, Bareilly, 75 mms. Reason: Yesterday, another cyclonic circulation extending upto 3.1 kms a.s.l. was over west Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Uttarakhand. Interacting with western disturbance as an UAC in the same altitude, there was an instant formation of high clouds (rain bearing) in the region, as a cold front was locally created.
Mumbai: With the help of a 3 hour drenching on Saturday morning, Mumbai Colaba season's total has overshot the 2000 mms mark, and stands at 2046 mms as on Saturday morning. The 3 hour downpour overshot my forecast of 30 mms for saturday by 24 mms.
Saturday and Sunday will also be wet, as per the analysis above. Would not hesitate to expect 150 mms Saturday thru Sunday.
Very frequent rains during daytime Some extremely heavy falls could flood low areas. Rain intensity tapering a bit by sunday evening.
Monday:expect frequent showers to continue, but with 40 mms of rain that day.
And not a soul is going to crib in Mumbai ! The combined lakes are now at a storage level of 6.7 lmlitres, against a full capacity of 13 lmlitres. 51.5 % full up.