Wednesday, July 07, 2010
IMD declared on Tuesday, 6th, that the monsoon has advanced into remaining parts of Rajasthan, covering the entire country about 10 days earlier than normal This had made up for the delay elsewhere and helped bring down the mercury in the Northern areas,and boosting farmer's hopes.A western disturbance may have offered the perfect cover for declaring the onset. The rains received over the last two days in the Northwest have been heavy to very heavy at times.
And over the region, the low pressure over central India, has made the normally requires easterlies to deviate yet again by flows from the Arabian Sea, now blowing straight into the Northern/Northwestern regions. This has moved the Monsoon rains to cover west Rajasthan, but easterlies have ceased over Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, and become southerlies.
Meanwhile, the low over Bay of Bengal off the A.P. coast persisted on Tuesday. ECMWF forecasts a westward movement for the system. This should result in a round of rains for the main peninsula areas.
Interior Maharshtra and A.P. should see increase from Thursday. Gujarat/Saurashtra should recieve moderate sparsed rain Wednesday thru Friday, with about 25 mms /day. I see rains decreasing in the Delhi region till Friday. Mumbai forecast: Wednesday thru Friday: Heavy passing showers, not too prolonged. Dry breaks sparsed in between showers can be expected, but be ready for sudden haevy downpours of limited durations. Rain will be 25-30 mms/day. On Tuesday, Colaba recieved 30 mms and Santacruz 36mms. (Vagaries Forecast 35 mms).
But for India,nothing dries up India's economic prospects more than the absence of monsoon clouds.With 60% of India's crop land still watered by rain, the monsoon is critical to determining food prices. The rains are in deficit, as of end June, but, more than the quantity, it's how the rains have covered the country that matters. In some key crop-producing areas, like the central region/Northern where most of India's oilseeds, lentils and rice are grown, rains were 26% below the average in June.
Timing is also crucial. For instance,the met department expects the rains to be heaviest in September. But for crops sown in June and July, that could have a damaging effect. In Uttar Pradesh, the second-largest sugar producer in the country, sugar output is already expected to fall short of earlier estimates by 5% because of the delayed showers. And let us not forget the importance of the farmer's capacity:, -60% of the demand comes from farmers--from consumer items to motorcycle, sales, are linked to crop yields. Certainly, with India's economy rebounding, consumer demand in the cities should hold up regardless of the weather. But more than 700 million Indians live in villages, and rural sales are a critical source of expansion for many Indian companies. With so much depending on them, the Monsoon has to "burst" in full fury over India.
It is too early to panic about this. Only a quarter of the rainy season has passed, and one factor that kept the rains away last year, the global El Nino weather effect, is fading. But a year after the worst drought in nearly four decades, India needs a normal rainfall more than ever.