The seasonal average as on 21st. July for India is now at -14%, from -13% last week. For this last week the rains were -17%
The position as on same date for the last 5 years was: 2005: 0%, 2006:-14%, 2007:+11%, 2008:-2%, 2009:-19%, 2010:-14%.
Notice the deficit is in the belt which would be normally covered by the passage of depressions from the bay. Hitherto absent this year.
The off shore trough off the west coast has kept the region in the normal range, while the monsoon axis interacting with W.Ds has kept the anomaly normal in the north.
The A.P.coast, T.N, and Rayalseema regions are in excess.But here, the rains are anyway not too heavy, and a heavy spell pushes up the average.For eg.T.N. needs only 87 mms to remain normal and with 157 mms, it is in excess.
The blog poll has a majority of votes for the last category, -5 to -10%.