Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Stage 1 of our estimate is surprisingly on schedule. Today, 28th. we see the formation of a 1002 mb low off the A.P./Orissa coast. Like I mentioned, this should now deepen, to at least 996 mb for a "major" effect along its path,( Whichever path it takes) and along the west coast. But contrary to my expectations, it is precariously close to the coast, and i feel it may not deepen much. Anyway, lets wait i see, i may be proved wrong. Also we see the winds picking up along the Kerala/Karnataka coast, rushing towards the nascent low. See map of accumalated rains). Hope my presentation is clear and precise this time ! :)
We see the monsoon axis, seasonal trough, running along the line joining the seasonal low in Sindh, thru a 1002 mb low embedded in the trough towards the new low in the bay. Hence, we could see some rains along this line next 2 days. The erstwhile low, having drenched Gujarat, has weakened into the sindh desert, and should dissipate by tomorrow. Rainfall along the sindh coast and interiors will decrease and diminish from Thursday evening, as the low dissipates.
Mumbai,utilise this lull till the new low deepens and crosses the coastline. (Maybe by Thursday night/Friday??)
Map by Vag. Tejas...Source "Mah. Water Respources Dept" 2nd august 2021