Friday, July 23, 2010
The sea level low which had formed a couple of days ago in the bay, is now just inland ,near Orissa.and at 996 mb.Seen in the evening map from Thai Dept.
Expected to weaken fast, it should precipitate some rains along its path following the axis corridor.
Before this current low, if you remembe
r, an UAC had tracked thru central Ind
ia and had remained stationary over
N.Gujarat/rajasthan. As expected, the map enclosed shows the UAC now along the international border, and should move westwards into sindh region..
We can expect rains along the sindh coast and southern interiors of the region for the next 2/3 days.Karachi sho
uld may receive about 10 mms of rain Saturday/sunday, with a bit more (40-45 mms) on Monday/Tuesday.
My observation as mentioned before, is that there has been a dearth of lows and depressions from the Bay of Bengal. There should be the lows that track westward/northwestward thru cent
ral India bearing heavy rains.
Now, this is all because of sparse and few western Pacifi
c typhoons. In fact only one before the current Chanthu. These typhoons send pulses westward into the Bay.
Now,the weather system to watch will be another low forming near the head of the Bay by the 24th./25th, substantiated by the today's UAC seen in the map.
We have hopes from this system for good rainfall in the deficit regions, and anticipate the system tracks westward through the heart of Indian region to the
Arabian Sea during the following week.The NCEP/GFS rain accumalation map of the next 7 days indicates the path of the low, which I pray turns out to be correct.
Mumbai's lakes measured good rains last 2 days. The rainfall on Thursday was Tulsi-150 mms, Vaitarna-140 mms, Tansa, Vihar, Upper Vaitarna, Bhatsa-80 mms each.
Mumbai will see a brighter Saturday, with sunny spells. Sharp showers on Saturday/Sunday will be less frequent and shorter in duration.Rain guage will measure upto 20 mms on saturday.
Rains intensity will subsequently increase from Monday.
Monsoon Watch - 2...2018 ....22nd April Further Analysis of the parameters as discussed in MW-1... Position as on 21st April : 1.Cross...
Monsoon Watch -3... 2017 (Additional)...May 9th 2017. Monsoon Arrival Estimate. The arrival date is calculated seeing today's positi...
Monsoon Watch – 3 (part 1)...2017 .....4th May Further Analysis of the parameters as discussed in MW-1,MW-2. Position as on 4 th May :...
Monsoon Watch --4 ...Quantum Analysis Quantum Analysis is evaluated for the amount of summer monsoon rainfall over Indian monsoon region ...