Synoptic Situation as on Thursday,26th, Night:
The Monsoon Trough runs through from Pakistan Punjab in the west thru Rajasthan (Jaipur) ,North MP and Jharkhand.
As a result, precipitation was fairly active from North Pakistan and the region North of the axis. In HP, Kangra recieved a heavy downpour of 115 mms. Utteranchal recieved very good rains and Jharkhand too had good rains last 2 days.
This was a result of an embedded UAC in the axis over Jharkhand.
Weekend Estimate: Friday, 27th, Saturday 28th and Sunday 29th July:
Friday: The Monsoon trough remains roughly in the same position. The off shore trough off the west coast remains weak.
Rainfall will be heavy in Western MP. Rainfall will also be concentrated in West UP, and the Delhi-Kanpur corridor could recieve some heavy showers. North AP coast, around Srikakulam and Vizag regions get precipitation.
Precipitation along the west coast will be medium, stations getting between 20-40 mms.
Saturday: Rainfall will be concentrated in Eastern Rajasthan and Central UP regions. Jaipur gets a good thundershower.
Sunday: In all probibility, an embedded UAC in the axis could bring very heavy downpours to Eastern and Southern Rajasthan regions. The Eastern end of the trough may host an UAC b Sunday.
Parts of UP could get good rains.
West coast rains decrease, as trough weakens.
On all 3 days, Barring Eastern Vidharbha and Konkan, all Maharashtra and Gujarat remain without any meaningfull rains.
Vagaries had estimated a rise in rainfall in the North of the country in its last 3 day forecast. And increase it was, with Sialkot getting a good 129 mms.
But next 3 days, as we see no system moving into Pakistan.
Friday/Saturday/Sunday will be almost dry and without any meaningfull rains throughout the country. Most cities, including Karachi, Hyderabad and Islamabad will be dry with no rains these 3 days. They may see a rise of around 2c in the day temperatures also.
City Forecasts for Friday/Saturday/Sunday:
Friday: Partly cloudy with sunny spells. Rise in day temperatures. 3/4 showers in different parts of city. Rain Amount: Around 15 mms.
Satellite towns too will get 3/4 showers in the day amounting to 15-20 mms.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with a couple of showers in different areas. Rain Amount: 5-10 mms.
Proportionately less rain in outer towns too.
Sunday: Cloudy with 3/4 showers. Showers scattered in the day.Rain Amount: 10-15 mms.
Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy with light rain in parts of city. Do not visulaise any substantial increase or momentum in rains. Rain Amounts: Upto 5 mms/day.
Friday/Saturday: Partly cloudy with a couple of medium showers, in parts. Rain Amount: 5 mms.
Sunday: Cloudy with a few showers Rain Amount could be around 10-12 mms.
Friday: Cloudy day. Periodical Showers will be heavy in many parts of the region, concentrating in the Eastern Parts like Noida and Faridabad. Rainfall Amount 15-25 mms.
Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy with a couple of afternoon showers in different parts. No substantial increase in rains, though a shower may be briefly heavy. Rain Amount: Upto 10 mms.
Bangalore, our readers mention, is recieving showers scattered in different areas of the city.
Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy, with a couple of showers in different parts of city. Again, no meaningfull increase could be foercasted now. Rain amounts: Upto 5 mms/day.
Chennai: Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Hot and humid day. Sunday Thundershower likely in some parts by evening/night. They tend to drift in from the West, and could be heavy in some patches. Sunday Rain amounts :5-10 mms.
Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Partly cloudy with light rain in some parts. Rain Amount 5-7 mms/day
Mumbai Deluge 26th July 2005:
Meteorologically, how did it Happen ?...Those Interested see Mumbai Page ....