Sunday, July 22, 2012


BB2 has now weakened, and is positioned over Central MP. Likely to merge with the monsoon axis by tomorrow.
Associated UAC S/SW of it will move west, and also dissolve.


Meanwhile, there was good anticipated precipitation in Vidarbha and Marathwada on Saturday night and Sunday. Very heavy rains were also reported from Vidharbha, North AP and parts of adjoining N.I. Karnataka...creating excellent soil moisture and crop conditions in the region. Had a talk with the farmers* in Marathwada (sunday evening) and they are happy the standing crop has recieved water. Crops in the region are almost 9" tall and now have recieved sufficient rains to cover another week.
(*Local farmers prefer direct talk on cell phones, and are not adaptable to seeing blog on net. They see it once in a few days and not convienent for them. Hence, only direct contact and personal interactions with them..)


Reports available say on Sunday, from 8.30am -5.30pm, Chandrapur got 190 mms, Yavatmal 113 mms, Nagpur 94 mms and Amraoti 40 mms.Mahableshawar got 45 mms in the day till 5.30pm.




Overall Forecast:


Monday: 23rd July: 
Rainfall weakens and decreases considerably in the Vidharbha region, but, as reported, the crops have received adequate moisture and should manage for another week now.


Rainfall (UAC) moves west, and Monday will see rainfall in Northern Mah. and adjoining Gujarat regions. Nasik district should get good rains on Monday, and south Gujarat (Surat) should get precipitation.


In AP, the rains decrease, with light rains in the Telengana region. Rainfall will be light to medium along the Monsoon axis line. some precipitation in MP and Jharkhand. Ranchi region can get some showers.
Konkan may not, get too heavy a rainfall. Precipitation along Konkan, Goa and Coastal Karnataka may be around 40-60 mms.   
Except South Gujarat, rest of Gujarat state remains without any measurable rainfall.


Tuesday: 24th July:
Precipitation continues in the 40-60 mms range along Konkan/Goa and Coastal Karnataka. Rainfall prevails along the monsoon axis line. MP, adjoining Chattisgarh and Jharkhand region getting the bulk. Adjoining UP also can get precipitations. 
Light rains (upto 10 mms) in North AP and Marathwada. Decreasing rains in Vidharbha region.


Wednesday: 25th: Main rainfall concentration moves Northwards towards UP, where very heavy rains are expected. Rainfall patch moves closer to Delhi Ncr, and will be restricted more to the Eastern areas.
Nepal too gets typical monsoon rains. Konkan rainfall decreases.
Meagre rainfall (5-10 mms) continue in MP, Vidharbha and Saurashtra. 


Pakistan: Mon/Tues/Wed for Pakistan is almost dry weather. BB2 is fading, and the effect will be some rain in the extreme South/Eastern sindh regions on Sunday night bordering India (Gujarat).
Otherwise from Monday, Coastal Sindh regions and Karachi gets cloudy days, with very light drizzles in some isolated regions. Sukkur and Hyderabad will be cloudy on Sunday night. Monday onwards will be dry and hot. 
Even the Northern regions of Pakistan get very little rainfall these 3 days. 


Rainfall for Sindh region has been low this year. In June Karachi recieved 1 mm and Nawabshah, Sukkur and Hyderabad 0 mm. Highest in Sindh was Mithi with 28 mms.
July, till today (22nd) shows Karachi with 1 mm, Sukkur and Hyderabad with 0 mms. Highest in Sindh during July is Chorre with 23 mms. 


India City Forecasts:
Mumbai: 
Monday: Cloudy skies with a 1/2 showers initially. Rain increasing by afternoon/evening and 2/3 showers becoming heavy and frequent. Rain Amount: (8.30 am Monday-8.30 am Tuesday) around 25 mms.


Tuesday: Cloudy, with 3/4 medium showers intersparsed through the day. A couple of heavy showers during the afternoon. Rain amount: 25-30 mms.


Wednesday: Cloudy with 3/4 showers in the day. Rain intensity decreasing by evening hours. Rain amount: around 25 mms.


Satellite Towns  Thane, Panvel and Badlapur can get 50-60 mms/day for next 3 days...


Pune: Mon/Tues/Wed: Was hoping to put up a better forecast for Pune. 
Cloudy with light rains during the day. Some parts may get a moderate shower in the afternoon. Rain amount: 7-10 mms.



Surat: Medium to heavy rains on Monday. Day will be cloudy with showers. Rainfall decreasing by night. Rain Amount:8.30 am Monday -8.30am Tuesday) 20-25 mms.
Tuesday: Cloudy with 2/3 light to medium spells of rain in the day till evening. Rain amounts: 10 mms.
Wednesday: Rains decreasing on Wed. A sharp shower likely by evening, around 10 mms.




Delhi NCR
Monday/Tuesday: Cloudy day. Light rain in some parts expected. Rain amount 2-5mms.


Wednesday: Delhi NCR starts getting cloudy from wed, and thundershowers develop by aftrenoon or night. Rain showers in many areas by evening, cooling down the region substantially.


Bangalore: Nothing meaningfull to exclaim this time too:
Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday: Cloudy and pleasant with a few light showers in some parts. Rain Amount/day: 1-3 mms.


Chennai: 
Monday:Cloudy and stuffy weather. Thundershower by night in some areas. Rain amounts: 5 mms.
Tuesday/Wednesday: Cloudy to partly cloudy. Westerly winds will keep the day warm. Light drizzle in some areas. Negligible rainfall.


Hyderabad (India): 
Monday: Cloudy with light rains. Rainfall will be less compared to last few days, with rain amount at around 5-7 mms/day.
Tuesday/Wednesday: Cloudy, with just a drizzle in some parts of city. Day will be around 30c. Rain between 2-5 mms/day.


This week's rainfall analysis by GSB on Inter Active Page.
x------------------------------x---------------------------------x----------------------------x------------------------x----------------------x------------------------------------x------------------------------x

BB2 weakening over Central MP @ 5.30 pm IST (Sunday). Associated UAC in the S/SW of low, where most clouding is concentrated. Flow passing over N.Konkan can start by tonite towards the UAC.
Rural Marathwada, Aurangabad, and Western Vidarbha is recieving light to medium rains now..Farmers report of constant drizzle since 3 pm, good for crops now...

46 comments:

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. So can we expect medium to heavy rains from night onwards over North Konkan ! As today thin whitish & silver layer clouds whole day making very dull weather here with no sun no rain ! Today is the first day of this monsoon season I think that even clouds presence not producing any rains over Badlapur ! otherwise if black patch arrives it would produce an spell while passing over the region .

Vivek said...

About 20mm rain over gurgaon just now. Look forward to reading your forecast for the rest of the week.

Anonymous said...

Farmers very happy to receive good rains over sat / sun in Akola area. The 'Vagaries' forecast was duly conveyed well in time which was cheerfully welcomed, NOW they want more!!....potey

RK said...

20mm..thats good....
Not even a drop here at G.Noida...
It is almost a week now with no rains...

GSB said...

This week's rainfall analysis;

ALL INDIA..

22/7/2012 286 mm
---------

to achieve by 30th September..

minimum 700mm 6.0 mm per day
avgerage 900mm 8.9 mm p/d
maximum 1100mm 11.8 mm p/d

current RAINFALL is 5.4 mm p/d

The figures last week were..

16/7/2012 243mm
---------

to achieve by 30th September..

minimum 700mm 6.0mm per day
avgerage 900mm 8.6mm p/d
maximum 1100mm 11.3mm p/d

current RAINFALL is 5.28 mm p/d

Irfan said...

@Rajesh, Will the current low spit any rains in Karachi. Such a disappointing Monsoon this has been with not even 1mm rain recorded thus far. Do you see situation reversing in coming days? The next low that is forming in Bay would it make it to the Sindh coast?.

GSB said...

@Irfan. Greetings from India. How have the rains been this year in Karachi? NW India is facing almost 40% shortfall till date..129mm vs 219 mm normal.. Is it similar in your part of Pakistan and what about other areas? Does a shortfall have a major impact on agriculture in Pakistan as it does in some parts of India? Thanks..

Irfan said...

@GSB Rains have been deficient all across the country specially in Sindh. Karachi is yet to get it's 1st rain of the season and with 3 weeks remaining before the official withdrawal of the monsoon from the coastal belt of Sindh, things are looking very gloomy.

However, the areas devoid of rains had devastating rains & floods last year so water table underground is quite high that is helping farmers to grow crops. Situation has also been helped by rising water levels in rivers with melting of glaciers. Northern areas of Pakistan had good snowfall this year so it is making up for the low Monsoon Rains.

sset said...

Thanks Rajan for weather site link. All freshers (including me) needs to read this.

Rajesh - your forcast for massive landfalls over Maharashtra are in place!!!! With such amounts 2 more falls should wipe away interior Maha water problem. I think way you have done for farmers here, same should be done for other states like KAR,AP... This good work needs to be conveyed to union agriculture minister.

No worries I will not speak about BANG- else people will pounce on me???

Thanks

Pavan said...

Ha ha rain gods pour for you tonite mrsset and i hope i hv become your fan, for What an extent you love ur city good keep it up. HOPE THE GARDEN CITY WILL BE GARDEN FOR UR LIFETYM

Shitij said...

Light drizzle in Surat but the sky is heavily clouded. I think that heavy rain should start falling at any time.

rajesh said...

Irfan: Thanks for your comments..yes Sindh region is having a weak spell..lets hope for more in the days to come...we'll wait and see when exactly and where the next low forms..

sset said...

No pavan - rains are only in Mharashtra. As usual no rains in BANG and south interior KARN.

FOR me garden city is NAVI MUMBAI (even though myself am from KARN).


Rajesh/Rajan -During SW monsoon, UAC is only over orissa coast and moves NW. Why does UAC not form over TN or South AP- if it does interiors of KAR will atleast receive rains. Last few NEM no proper depressions or UAC formed over TN.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. So now North Konkan to get rains from UAC which is traveling west and dissolving or from weak off shore trough & UAC interactions ! So if Mumbai can get 25-30mm rains for next 3days, then can interior North Konkan regions or suburbs area like Panvel,Badlapur, Karjat, Kasara and ghat area like Igatpuri ,Bhimashankar & Lonavala can manage 60-70mm rains for next 3days period ! Already 2 heavy spells of 10mins lash Badlapur from 9 to 11pm period.

rajesh said...

abhikit: yes, i shall put up for the readers the satellite towns forecasted figures...

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh . Thank you Sir for updating the forecast for satellite towns of Mumbai. Badlapur got 9mm rains in last 3hrs. So 8.30am to 8.30pm was trace and 8.30pm to 11.30pm recieved 9mms. Hoping for another 30mm till 8.30am tomorrow.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Your Sunday night will be a teaser, no meaningful rains going very correct.. last night(8.30pm to 11.30pm) got 9mm in 3hrs , So thought full night will be having Occasional spells but it did not happen & just 1mm added from 11.30pm up to 8.30am today. So past 24hrs(yesterday 8.30am till today 8.30am) rain over Badlapur is just 10mm now ! So now hoping for rains to resume as day progress !

Ron said...

imd announced in the press of very heavy rainfall this week due to the low pressure which is supposed to form on 26th...Wasn't this system also suppose to track north-north west again??

rajesh said...

Ron:I have not announced nor mentioned about this "low" coming..i have to be sure of the date myself to mention it...btw, where did u read about its proposed track being N/NW ?

Vijayanand said...

Light drizzle in bangalore this morning. Guess 17 crore prayer could fetch only 1 mm rain :)
17 crore for prayer by karnataka BJP govt must be the costliest prayer in the world :)
Brilliant idea to swindle public money need to say.

Vijayanand said...

This time while coming back from mumbai , I happend to pass by satara and kohlapur. The whole stretch is very beautiful. sahyadri mountain range further to the west is unspoilt and beautiful. Hopefully I should make a trip to these places in years to come.

keaweather said...

Another good day for Cherrapunjee, 138 mm recorded there to take the total for SWM to 6572 mm (excess approx 1,800 mm)

I wonder how much the national deficit will increase to if we remove the North east from the picture.

emkay said...

Mr Vijayanand - please keep politics out of this forum. And for your information the funds being used are temple funds which devotees have donated. Not your public exchequer. Whether Govt should direct something in exclusive Hindu domain is something else to discuss about elsewhere.

emkay said...

@Rajesh - pl correct a typo in the Water levels in different lakes of Mumbai You have mentioned last entry at July 29th instead of 20th.

Vijayanand said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Vijayanand said...

emkay,
Hahha...kindly get your facts right sir.
Go to : http://in.news.yahoo.com/shettar-showers-r17-cr-unrelenting-rain-gods-183000239.html

If the issue wasn't related to rain prayer, I would not have highlighted it in the blog.Politics related to rain , rain related issues can always be highlighted.

GSB said...

I agree with Vijayanand. There should be no diktat here on this forum, I feel, on what anybody can write. Some of us have better things to do than to be told what to write, and by whom!!

Vijayanand said...

GSB,
Thanks. Well said :)
Appreciate your views.

rajesh said...

keaweather:Actually only Assam/Meghalaya are in +. Rest NE is -ve. I think Pradeep would be the right man to answer and give the correct figures.Pradeep...please ??

rajesh said...

emkay: thanks,corrected the typo..suddenly in 2 days the news says (quoting BMC) that now the lakes are around comfortable levels...which vagaries had put up on the 20th...they quote its due to very good rains last 2 days !!!

emkay said...

Rest in fools paradise Mr Vijayanand, any its for Rajesh to take the call on moderation here. Whatever trash media dishes will be eaten up gullible people.

Vijayanand said...

emkay,

I have been showing utmost restraint here. Guess some people don't deserve it. Its for Rajesh sir to decide on moderation. Kindly stop your moral policing. Be more tolerant and humble for god's sake.

Politics related to rain , rain related issues can always be highlighted.

GSB said...

@Emkaey the tone and tenor of your last post is highly objectionable. No one is a fool over here including you and all of us.. and by calling yahoo news trash and Vijayanand and myself gullible you are unnecessarily provoking the issue.

Any way it for @Rajesh Sir to decide if anyone can use such terms on this forum like fool eta..

NT said...

Dear @GSB, @Vijayanad and @Emkay, as a long standing reader of Vagaries I would request that we just let this be closed here. We have all exchanged views on this forum and one understands that there will be situations where there could be disagreements (and infact these should be welcome), however letting it split onto personal levels would need to un-necessary antagonism and in my personal view also bring dis-repute to the blog.

Hope my comment is taken in the right spirit.

Pavan said...

@emkay, vijayanand etal its nt fair on ur part to make such series of personal cmt, if you do so then thr is no diff betwn u and those politicians, this blog is not meant for such things, and rajesh sir wil never ever cmt on your such comments so pl do nt take the advantage of his humbleness, if you really regard him respect his knowledge for what you are here for then pl do nt make an unnecessary comment henceforth whch is not related to the subject. Weather and climate doesnt have any religon language or politics be like a humans then it will pour

Ron said...

@rajesh sir-I thought the low pressure followed the monsoon axis,hence i thought the low pressure would track north/northwest..also isn't it true that low pressure forming in west central bob tracks to maharashtra??

Anonymous said...

I agree with @NT and @Pavan, as a reader I would request that we refrain from commenting about any political party or a religious ceremony even if it is to do with weather. There are many readers of this forum with different political and religious leanings and you would never know who gets offended by what comment and honestly who can certify that any other political party is not swindling the public? Let this blog focus on what it does best.

emkay said...

Fully agree with @Annonymous above and would close this episode here. But before going need to clarify on the Idiom "in a fool's paradise" - It doesnt mean calling the person a fool which I understand has happened here and am being accused of being personal.
The idiom means a state of good feeling based on a false hope or premises.

Vijayanand said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Vijayanand said...

NT, nice to hear mature words from you. Disappointed that people can use obnoxious terms,pass rude dikat and get away with it.

Yep! The issue is closed from my side as well.

Abhijit Modak said...

After off topic discussions, now lets back on weather topics ! Here Badlapur extended suburbs of Mumbai are having occasional spells with some heavy, but spells are short not more than 10mins. Today 8.30am to 5.30pm measured 11mm rains.

GSB said...

@Abhijit, where do you get your Badlapur readings from? Any web site that you refer or you have a set up that can measure rainfall..like http://envirocon.in in Thane. Thanks.

I am happy that the issue of "politics" is out of the way. But let me remind everyone that it is this very "politics" that is the stumbling block to our nation's progress especially when it comes to drinking water, irrigation and hydel power...

I will sign off with these words of wisdom.....


"At least two thirds of our miseries spring from human stupidity, human malice and those great motivators and justifiers of malice and stupidity, idealism, dogmatism and proselytizing zeal on behalf of religious or political idols." - (Aldous Huxley / 1894-1963)

Vijayanand said...

Cloudy evening in bangalore. Not much rain today. Early this morning we had light rain.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ GSB. I measures the rains with own guage setup at my terrace . I have kept flat base steel utensil which do not have any cone or curve like shape with same radius and circumference from all side. And it is kept at open area where only rain drops will fall and other drops will not interfere with the utensil. So it measures the rains near to accurate. You can see the photo of mine guage also, if you are a member of vagaries of weather open group on Facebook !

GSB said...

@Abhijit, that is just great! But can I get one like that in the market or is it a "Do it yourself" kind of apparatus.. Hope you or @Rajesh Sir can guide me on that. Secondly ours is a seven storied building and since I am on the sixth floor it would be easy for me to keep track of the equipment..

Also I am slightly away from the city on Godhbundar road and we get more rains than the city centre. Dahisar naka is just 20 min drive from my place...

Abhijit Modak said...

@ GSB. You can easily get it any kitchen items shop. Actually Flat Base Steel Utensil is used in Open Microwave Oven as it uses electro- magnetic induction techniques for heating, so material inside gets cooked but utensil remains cool on upper side so flat utensil are used, so you can asked for Flat base steel utensil for open microwave oven purpose. Here also Ambernath receives less rains than Badlapur but rains are measured at Ambernath only as it is an taluka place and Ambernath is 7kms away from Badlapur so much variations in Rains are possible . As from Badlapur, Matheran mountain ranges starts, so rains increases from here. Now best example is of today only, as per Agriculture collector office data in past 24hrs till today 8.30am Ambernath received 0mm, means no rains at all! But Badlapur received 2 heavy spells last night which I measured 10mms.