Wednesday, July 04, 2012

All India Rainfall Deficit as on 4th July 2012.. and  Karnataka Analysis ...All on Current Weather Page of Vagaries,


Mumbai Readings v/s Estimate put up on Mumbai Page..See Vagaries' Readings Page for Panvel  and Thane.

Come Thursday, 5th July, and we see the trough off the West Coast of India gradually getting weak again. In fact, from Saturday, 7th, there are chances of the Monsoon axis shifting to the North. 
From Pakistan Punjab, where it will deepen to 988 mb, it will run thru Delhi into the plains region of UP, and will be substantially deep at 994 at its eastern end near Bihar.


What does it mean ? Monsoon rushing into rest of UP, Delhi and Utteranchal from Sunday, 8th July, and then from Monday into Eastern Rajasthan, HP, Indian Punjab and Haryana. 


Heavy rainfall will occur this week in the Lucknow-Kanpur belt and Western UP region adjoining Utteranchal.
NE states will see a resurge from this weekend.


West coast rain tapers off from Saturday. In fact, some weather MSLP charts show a ridge forming from Saturday, 7th July. This high pressure ridge will stretch from SI Karnataka thru Interior Mah upto Mah/Gujarat border.
Gujarat region sees a sharp decrease in rains from this Saturday.


Sharp decrease in rains for interior Mah from Saturday, and almost no meaningfull rains in interior Karnataka.


But the Western Rajasthan region along with Kutch will remain dry and devoid of rains this week. 


Advance of Monsoon into Pakistan could be considered from next week. Feeble currents will move into Northern regions of Pakistan including Islamabad and Punjab from Sunday, 8th July.
Sindh and Balochistan will be almost dry.


Mumbai Forecast:


Thursday, 5th: Cloudy with occasional showers. Rainfall will be less than Wednesday, but scattered through the day. Rain amount: 20-25 mms.



Friday, 6th: Almost cloudy day with several showers, some heavy. Rain amount 30 mms.




Saturday, 7th: Partly cloudy with sunny spells. A shower or two in some parts . Decrease in rainfall. Rain Amount 10 mms.


Pune:


Thursday,5th: Cloudy day. A moderate shower expected in some parts. Rain Amount 5-10 mms. 
Actaul Rain Amount. 1-2 mms in different parts.


Friday/Saturday: Decrease in whatever meagre rainfall occured in the last two days. Very light drizzles in some parts, otherwise sunny spells.


Surat: 
Thursday,5th: Thunderclouds could develop by evening and very cloudy by evening. Some showers, could be heavy. Rain amount: 20 mms. 
Actual: Some heavy showers with rainfall amounting to 18.5 mms.


Friday: Partly cloudy to cloudy by evening. A shower expected which could be heavy in some parts.
Saturday: Decrease in rains. 


Delhi: Monsoon showers will cool the NCR from Saturday and Sunday. Heavy showers in parts of the region are expected, and some will be prolonged on Sunday.


Interesting Statistics Gathered by GSB for all Vagaries' Readers on Inter Active Page. Must See !


Vagaries' visitors counter hit over 1000 a day, last few days. Thursday (last) : 1115 hits, Monday: 1054 hits, Tuesday: 1035 hits and today Wednesday: 1352 hits and 7792 hits last 8 days.

35 comments:

sset said...

Entire 3 days since I came to Navi Mumbai- it has been raining non-stop. Nights are like rumbling waterfalls- sleep is almost impossible. But you say rains will subside?? Already entire mumbai-navi mumbai takes a dense green look, hill with waterfalls. With this Mumbai is likely to cross 500mm.

Why do rains avoid interior AP/ karnataka? My observation is has been for last 5years. Do you think weather scientist shoould find cause for this? - RISK mitigation

Atul said...

Hi Rajesh,
Your predictions are on target as always :) As you mentioned axis will shift north from7th. But there is no meaningfull rains in Pune,satara area. If i am not wrong situation for karad , kolhapur is same. As per July graph these areas are deficient. Do you see monsoon getting better in these areas in later half of July?

Will deficiency mentioned will be in cachement areas too?

Thanks,
Atul.

emkay said...

has some sudden develpopment taken place over Mumbai for this variation from forecast, nonstop rains past midnite

Abhijit Modak said...

@ emkay. No sudden development !! Weak UAC continues over North Konkan belt! And I think weak UAC will get convert or joined into weak to medium Offshore trough over Entire Konkan Coast till Sunday.And Intermittent Rains some time heavy will take place over South & North Konkan till Sunday.. But Rain may vary between 40mm to 120mm ranges in different places of Konkan. All above judgement as per my observations.

rajesh said...

Atul: Yes, Pune did get less rains than anticipated..i had expected some showers last 2 days. But it was negligible, 1.3 mms yesterday and 0.3 mms today (till 8.30am).
Well, seems next week should be around same, and if something comes up, will keep you informed..checking on the developments..
emkay:No, not much change. Being a regular vagaries reader, you know how we work out the actual v/s estimated. Let me explain for the new readers: that rainfall amount estimated for,say, Wednesday, is taken upto Thursday morning 8.30 am..that is the amount indicated and meant when we say Thursday's rain amount, i mean rains upto Friday 8.30 am.
This comparison is always tallied on the Mumbai page vis-a-vis the estmated and the actual (upto 8.30am next morning).And vagaries estimate is an average for all the city regions.
Now, Wed estimated was 50 mms, and what the 3 stations got was 75,68 and 28 mms.
Sorry, went off the point.I think it was almost on line..occeasional showers. Vagries' forecast is put up for the Mumbai region, and city as a whole. See the variation, yes, your area got good rains post mid night, but South Mumbai had a couple of showers. Its too difficult to pin point an area.
Thanks and regards.

RK said...

Hi Rajesh,

I hope that your forecast for Delhi and west UP holds true..and monsoon reaches by 8th july. Situation is really bad in this region, ppl are suffering, with worsening drought,agriculture, heat, power and water crisis.
Do you think that the rain will sustain for some days after 8th or again a break?

Anonymous said...

@SSET, You can add Pune to bangalore's club, we have water for another 15 days. seems Mumbai is the only place in India which can be assured of consistent rains. I wonder can Mumbai accomodate another few crores of population !. Kolkatta, Hyd, Bang, Pune all in grip of drought

junaid said...

the drought situation in interior karnatka and western mah is alarming!!! Nd if the monsoon axis shifts northwards,,,then break monsoon for peninsular india,,,m still eagerly waiting for a typical monsoon depression originating across north ap nd orissa coast nd travelling inland !!! A system like ths is the only hope for well distributed rains in the interiors!! The off shore trough nd its associated uac r worthless for interior mah!! The watershed areas of mah like mahabaleshwar ,bhira r in big deficit,,,wen i visited amboli ppl said me abt low amount of water in hiranyakeshi river!!!@rajesh special thanx to u for going over the board nd recording panvel readings for readers like me ,,,getting the readings has become lot easier !!:)

sset said...

Sure Anonymous. Point is just like pandemics, weather scientistis,sate goverments should make research why monsoon eludes south interior peninsular India - similar pattern for last 5years and weak NEM. Risk mitigation needs to be performed. Bangalore with its learned people of IT, IIS, ISRO should be involved - as of now they are least bothered about environment and looming recurssive drought.

By the way Navi Mumbai- again heavy rains started. Rajesh sir - when will Mumbai get respite from rains?

Thanks

junaid said...

@rajesh my comment got deleted ny problem in server r wat???????

rajesh said...

junaid: i dont know why, your comment went to spam !! anyway, marked as "never spam".Dont understand how, never happens.
And glad you , emkay and another anonymous fromPanvel appreciate your place readings..welcome.

emkay said...

Readers may like to read this BusinessLine report http://t.co/wX3PRp0b

It sums up the worries w.r.t this year monsoon.

NT said...

It's started raining at Worli again. Also, woke up to a Thundery early morning today at Juhu. Looks like the rain / showers will continue in Mumbai till this weekend atleast.

Rajeshbhai, the IMD site still maintains an UAC off Mah-Guj coasts, didn't see that in the COLA charts though. Does it still persist?

rajesh said...

emkay: the 4th/5th/6th para coincides with vagaries put up yesterday...
nt: UAC will fizzle out in a weakening trough...and as mentioned rainfall shifts east and towards northern india..rains over Mumbai will get a spurt as mentioned in my forecast (35 mms) on Friday...

Ron said...

so break in monsoon again in mumbai..bummer..

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Ron. Break monsoon will be there but for Mumbai & whole Konkan region there will be sharp short spell of showers with sun out in between through out day. Every day rain may vary between 5mm to 40mm for coastal belt & interior Konkan who are near to Western Ghats might get rains between 40 to 100mm for next 3 days atleast as per my observations. And after that too atleast for Konkan belt there may be less rain if any system does not develop but something will continue I think.

Bhavik said...

Right now its raining heavily all over Mumbai. Good monsoon activity here will persist atleast till Monday.
Also expect some heavy rains tomorrow

Abhijit Modak said...

Heavy Rains with some thunders & strong Gusty winds (40kmph)from 4pm in Dombivli-Badlapur Belt of Thane District.

Nagpur Star said...

Not much rains for Nagpur :(. Just one small showers in past 2-3 days.

svt said...

Hi Rajesh, We are planning to have small function on next sunday, 15th July on our building's terrace. Are you expecting heavy rains (i.e. more than 2-3 showers) on that day? I know its very difficult to predict weather so much in advance but if anyone can predict its you.

Shitij said...

Today the Sky was fully overcast throughout the day. Surat has received some sharp short spell showers throughout the day. Total amount of rainfall should be around 15-20 mms.

GSB said...

Moderate to heavy rainfall recorded in Mulund and Thane. Approx about 50-60mm by 12 midnight. Another good day nothched up. Hipe cathment areas have got good rains. The satellite picture over w.maharashtra looks good.

GSB said...

@sset.. Your anger at the establishment is totally correct. The political class of India have forgotten that in this very same subcontinent a civilization known has the Indus-Saraswati (Harappa) stored water in huge tanks that were designed close to perfection. This was not in one or two centres but in almost all the settlements that have been found.

What we need is a National programme to build one million storage tanks and link the larger ones by canals. This will totally revolutionise agriculture in India making us the largest producer of foodgrains in the world, solving the problem of hunger, employment and failed monsoons in one stroke.

But alas first let us get on with the presidential elections......

GSB said...

Again heavy rainfall at around 1.45 am in Thane. Total set to cross 600mm for the season ... (598mm acheived)...

emkay said...

Panvel too received heavy gusty downpour past midnite.

Anonymous said...

Matheran region close to Mumbai seems to be recieving heavy thunder shower currently as shown by the Doppler radar.

NT said...

@GSB, agree with your comment. What we need is for the river linking program to get off the ground. Currently it is stalled due to political and regionalistic wrangles. Imagine the situation where one state has floods (Assam) and the neighbouring state (Bihar) was worried about a drought!!

The initiative in Gujarat to cover the canals by solar Panels is worth noting. This not only provides clear power but also prevents evaporation losses.

In any case if India has to truly become a power-house, we need to reduce the very heavy reliance on Monsoon's performance.

Ron said...

mumbai monsoon website doesn't seem to be updating properly...it doesn't show up accurate rains..even when it was raining for an hour..it showed nothing..been going on for few days...

rajesh said...

ron:I always had my doubt sonce the begining of this season..i remember having mentioned it once in a certain comment...
nagpur star; NGP is having a bad patch, maybe something coming this weekend..shall put up with weekend forecast tonite..
sset:Karnataka

Vijayanand said...

Bangalore in dry and warm this july. God Bless!

Vijayanand said...

Not seen this kind of dry weather in interior karnataka for a long time.

Vijayanand said...

I would be in mumbai for 1 week from sunday. Hope to see some good rain. Though not too sure of my luck :)

Vijayanand said...

Mangalore got around 70 cms in june. Hope july would reach its normal 100 cms. Ghat areas of mercara hasn't got any good rain so far. KRS level is the lowest in a decade.

sset said...

Vijay - enjoy dense greenary,waterfalls,tree canopies,lakes,hill stations of Mumbai/Navi Mumbai.

Very different from Bangalore which is dry,barren,dusty and polluted.

rajesh said...

atul:I think as the MJO is slated to be weak till 20th-23rd, we may have to hold on...rains are very poor in solapur,kolhpurand pune and ahmednagar. See the mah seasons rainfall colour map put up on vagaries.
svt:15th july is far off and difficult to tell..but seems as yet, not much to worry about heavy prolonged showers.Only passing showers, maybe 2/3. Remind me on Wednesday for better picture..