Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Mumbai Page Wednesday Morning Rainfall Updated.

Synoptic Situation::


-ENSO: Remains neutral still. Though SST in the concerned areas (NINO 1 and 2) has increased by 0.2c, the conditions are just on the "threshold" of an EL-Nino. Not yet developed. --SOI is a bit better at -2.2.
-MJO: Most forecasts showing weakening MJO in our seas, weakening from 26th July... Wave shifting eastwards towards the SE Asia. More typhoons from The Pacific/S.Chine Sea as ITCZ gets active there..
-IOD: Neutral conditions. Likely to persist..
-Low in the 200 hpa jet stream moves North of normal position.


Outlook for next 3 days:


The Monsoon axis starts moving Northwards from Wednesday, with one UAC embeded in it around the MP region.
Next 3 days, rainfall will increase in the Northern regions like UP, North MP and Delhi NCR. Increase in rains will be prominent in Utteranchal, UP and Northern MP. 
Delhi NCR sees a moderate increase in rains. Averaging around 15-20 mms/day.
Haryana and Punjab see a moderate improvement in precipitation.


Gujarat and Rajasthan remain in the low rainfall region.
String Westerly winds blowing South of the axis, mainly thru Gujarat, Mah coast and Rajasthan.


The Southern states see no major change in the prevailing situation.


The West coast off shore trough weakens, in fact some charts show it curving in a "ridge" formation. Hence next 3 days may see a decrease in rains in Konkan. Stations here may get between 25-40 mms/day.
Interior Maharashtra, Vidharbha and AP will continue to recieve low rainfall, amounting to 5-7 mms/day, in isolated pockets.


Pakistan:
Precipitation moves into Northern Pakistan. Punjab(Pakistan) with Islamabad could see a moderate increase in precipitation, and Lahore may get thundershowers. 
But Central and southern regions (Sindh) remain with negligible rains. Dust storms or thunder squalls due to heat may be isolated there.


Next Forecast will be the Usual Weekend Forecast and will be up on Friday.


An UAC develops in the North Bay around the 28th of July...may track along the axis.
A pulse from  typhoon Vicente will travel to the Bay, and form a system around the 2nd of August...this time, West coast may probably get very active....





-Thanks for city details..please keep sending ..Rajan's 3 points being seen to understand movement of Monsoon axis this week...Preparing a Monsoon Watch for August..first mid season Monsoon Watch ever on Vagaries ..has become necessary.


36 comments:

RK said...

After a long time...Heavy Rain with thunder currently at Greater Noida...yeaahhh...:)

PRASAD GODASE said...

Rajesh- tell me weather for ahamadnagar .there is no rain in akole.

rajesh said...

RK: good show...a day earlier than forecasted !

Pavan said...

Today it raind in pune for just 10min with gusty winds may be abt 3mm-5mm imd aws site is nt working since yesterday

rajesh said...

gsb: 35 mms till 5.30pm today and 15 mms till 8.30 pm in mshwar today :-))

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Mine comment got deleted ! Can you provide Matheran figures for today till 8.30pm .Yesterday already matheran received 70mm. And today from mine terrace I was seeing Matheran range it was densely covered and was not visible through out the day.

Shitij said...

Today sky was covered with dark heavy clouds. Light rain occur at some regular intervals. Each spell of rain lasted only for 5-10 min not more than that. Total amount of rain should be around 5mm.

Vivek said...

No rain in Gurgaon today. Vagaries forecast for monday and Tuesday was spot on. Cloudy days but no rain. Hopefully we will get good rain in the remaining days on the week.

rajesh said...

shitij: we had expected upto 10 mms for Tuesday..
abhijit: matheran figures will be available tomorrow...
Prasad: I think Ahamadnager may have to wait for some time to get substantial rainfall..as yet rains are weak...will inform details in fridaay forecast..

Vikas (Gurgaon) said...

No meaningful rains in Gurgaon. There have been some showers for few minutes and that too very localized i:e some areas are absolutely dry and some are wet. For e:g RK mentioned about heavy rain in Noida yesterday but large parts of Gurgaon were absolutely dry. NCR needs good amount of showers in widespread areas to increase the water table and lower down the temperature. Hoping for better days ahead...

Vikas (Gurgaon) said...

Just to add to what i said, there were some rains in Gurgaon today morning but they too seemed to be localized. Usually if it rains in widespread surrounding areas the temperature comes down but today's rain didn't seem to have any effect on the temperature.

Abhijit Modak said...

Just 2mm Rain in night period. So past 24hrs (yesterday 8.30am till today 8.30am) Badlapur received 25mm rain. @ Rajesh Sir Whether Matheran Hill station has cross 1500mm rain mark from 1 June to 25 July 2012 period !

Anonymous said...

Hello sir Im a regular visitor of your forum. Im from Ghaziabad and the weather here is absolutely dry this monsoon.Ghaziabad has received only 23mms rain since 1 june.Last time it rained over here around 6-7 july amounting about 17mms of rain when monsoon arrived here.Nearby locations like Noida,Delhi and Gurgaon are receiving rains(though scanty)but weather here is absolutely dry.And i guess Ghaziabad receives the maximum rain in NCR as it is located in eastern NCR.

Vijayanand said...

Clear and warm morning in bangalore.

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/INXX0012:1?interactiveMapLayer=sat&baseMap=r&zoom=8
Pic from 5.30 am.
I can see clouds along coastal kerela. Entire central India and north central India is getting good rain.

Vijayanand said...

Agumbe received 14 cms yesterday and Madikeri 4 cms.

Vijayanand said...

Some cloud cover over kerela. Hope it leads to come good rain.

svt said...

Hoping that pulse from Typhoon Vincete results in Tropical Depression in Bay in first week of August.:)

rajesh said...

Anonymous(Ghaziabad): Thanks for your comments. Hope the latest 3 day forecast helps..weekend forecast will be up Friday...btw interaction would be easier if we know you by name-:)

Vijayanand said...

Rajesh,

There seems to be some activity off kerela coast since yesterday evening.

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/INXX0012:1?interactiveMapLayer=sat&baseMap=r&zoom=6
at 8.30 am today.
Just wondering whether low pressure trough off kerela coast is strengthening.

Nagpur Star said...

Rajesh Bhai,
Its been typical July Nagpur with regular showers and cool weather. Not heavy though but just enough.
-Amit

Anonymous said...

Can you see any important change in weather pattern that causing monsoon failure?

Vijayanand said...

A lot of clouds engulfing deccan plateau....cloud movement seems to be from East....

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/INXX0012:1?interactiveMapLayer=sat&baseMap=r&zoom=8

at 11.30 am

Arpit Sharma said...

Heavy rain in Noida today around 10:30am and still no rain in Ghaziabad.

Arpit Sharma said...

Some high clouds here in ghaziabad no chances of rain for the next two hours.

Abhijit Modak said...

Looking like fresh off shore trough forming off Kerala coast as per satellite image ! Can that off shore trough get extend till North Konkan in next 48hrs ! And Bay low also looking like forming early as per sat image ! so low formation before or around 27 july ! As thick dense clouds seen over North AP & Orissa coast . And rapidly clouds entering into Vidarbha region also from Bay ! So can we see early rain activity from coming weekend only !

Vijayanand said...

There seems to a lot of activity happening today in bay of bengal , central India and along kerela coastline. Visible analysis of cloud mass from 5.30 am to 11.30 am today is showing cloud mass moving west rapidly from bay of bengal.

The pace with which cloud mass is moving from Bay of bengal [AP, Orrisa] is suggesting trough off western coast strengthening.
weather.com snap at 2.30 pm and 5.30 pm would further make the picture clear.

Abhijit Modak said...

As I mentioned yesterday that Matheran was densely covered and not visible through out the day from my terrace. Matheran received 80mm in past 24hrs till today 8.30am. And Mahabaleshwar received 70mm yesterday. @ Rajesh Sir . Can you please provide total rains of Matheran Hill station from 1st June to 25 July 2012 period !

Vijayanand said...

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/INXX0012:1?interactiveMapLayer=sat&baseMap=r&zoom=8
2.30 pm snap
1) Monsoon seems to have revived over kerela.
2) Entire west coast under cloud cover.

Vivek said...

Rajesh sir,

No rain (as yet) over NCR today. Could you explain what meteorological factors may be to blame?

Thanks,
Vivek

Pradeep said...

Abhijit Modak,

Matheran Hill station has recorded 1413 mm so far from 1 June to 25 July 2012 period.

Today's Maharashtra Toppers
-----------------
Kitwade - 106 mm
Thoseghar - 90
Kas - 83
Matheran - 77
Dajipur - 75
Mahabaleshwar - 73

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Pradeep. Thank you very much for providing Matheran rainfall detail. As our city comes under foothill of Matheran Mountain range so was eager to know surrounding Hill station rainfall figure. I think it is just 70%! By this time it should have crossed 2500mm rainfall mark.

GSB said...

Today's all India rainfall figure of 10.1 mm is only the EIGHTH above normal daily figure for the season till date...i.e. in 55 days from June 1st only eight days all India have been above normal rest 47 days recorded below normal rainfall (85% of all days!!).

To make matters worse this includes the normal rainfall in the NE. Thus we have a situation where NWI with -39% , CI with -22% and SPIN with -24% have a lot of catching up to do..

GSB said...

Just to add the figure of 10.1mm is as of 8.30 am today for the readers who are unfamiliar...

Anonymous said...

Hi Rajesh,

IMD has now withdrawn the UAC/ low watch. Seem monsoon will sli[ back into break phase.

REgards, Ananth

rajesh said...

abhijit/vijayanand: in fact the west coast trough has become feeble...and for the bay, vagaries has mentioned an UAC will form around the 28th..dont be in a rush -:))
Arpit/vivek: Gurgaon got 4 cms, and the NCR will get increasing rains next 2 days ...

rajesh said...

Thanks Pradeep for giving the amounts to Abhijit..i was out today and laned on the blog a bit late..
ever dependable !