-ENSO: Remains neutral still. Though SST in the concerned areas (NINO 1 and 2) has increased by 0.2c, the conditions are just on the "threshold" of an EL-Nino. Not yet developed. --SOI is a bit better at -2.2.
-MJO: Most forecasts showing weakening MJO in our seas, weakening from 26th July... Wave shifting eastwards towards the SE Asia. More typhoons from The Pacific/S.Chine Sea as ITCZ gets active there..
-IOD: Neutral conditions. Likely to persist..
-Low in the 200 hpa jet stream moves North of normal position.
Outlook for next 3 days:
The Monsoon axis starts moving Northwards from Wednesday, with one UAC embeded in it around the MP region.
Next 3 days, rainfall will increase in the Northern regions like UP, North MP and Delhi NCR. Increase in rains will be prominent in Utteranchal, UP and Northern MP.
Delhi NCR sees a moderate increase in rains. Averaging around 15-20 mms/day.
Haryana and Punjab see a moderate improvement in precipitation.
Gujarat and Rajasthan remain in the low rainfall region.
String Westerly winds blowing South of the axis, mainly thru Gujarat, Mah coast and Rajasthan.
The Southern states see no major change in the prevailing situation.
The West coast off shore trough weakens, in fact some charts show it curving in a "ridge" formation. Hence next 3 days may see a decrease in rains in Konkan. Stations here may get between 25-40 mms/day.
Interior Maharashtra, Vidharbha and AP will continue to recieve low rainfall, amounting to 5-7 mms/day, in isolated pockets.
Precipitation moves into Northern Pakistan. Punjab(Pakistan) with Islamabad could see a moderate increase in precipitation, and Lahore may get thundershowers.
But Central and southern regions (Sindh) remain with negligible rains. Dust storms or thunder squalls due to heat may be isolated there.
Next Forecast will be the Usual Weekend Forecast and will be up on Friday.
An UAC develops in the North Bay around the 28th of July...may track along the axis.
A pulse from typhoon Vicente will travel to the Bay, and form a system around the 2nd of August...this time, West coast may probably get very active....
-Thanks for city details..please keep sending ..Rajan's 3 points being seen to understand movement of Monsoon axis this week...Preparing a Monsoon Watch for August..first mid season Monsoon Watch ever on Vagaries ..has become necessary.