Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Mumbai forecast For Thurs/Fri/Sat with Thursday Morning Actual put up on Mumbai Page...Note the rise in pressure on Vagaries' Reading Page !

Put up on Inter Active Page:Pradeep's compilation of All India Toppers as on 10th July 2012:
See Mumbai Page for Maharashtra and Mumbai Reservoir Levels as on 10th July:
Loads of Information for Vagaries' Readers as on 10th July !!

The SW Monsoon has covered the country today, 10th July.
BB1 is moving West, and is positioned over the West MP/Gujarat/adjoining Rajasthan region. Though not very deep, it is 994 mb, but the associated upper air circulation is extending upto 500 hpa. 



The clouding is concentrated in the Western Quadrant due to the favourable Lifted Condensation levels in the region over East Gujarat.

But, the North Konkan region was convienently by passed on Tuesday. 


On analysis as to why this happened, We can see from this image (above) of Tuesday morning, that the Maximum Level of Free Condensation has risen to over 5000, considered un favourable for immiediete cloud formation. But this can always change rapidly with good moisture incursions.

On Monday/Tuesday the precipitation in the areas forecasted by Vagaries(barring Konkan)has been on expected lines. Very heavy rainfall of 216 mms was recorded at Garhi in East Rajasthan. Banswara recorded 175 mms. Ujjain, where Vagaries had predicted very heavy rains, saw 102 mms, and Narsingpur 95 mms. Nearby Rewa saw 42 mms.

Would expect BB1 to move North/West and fizzle out over the Kutch/Rajasthan region.
Very heavy rains expected in Kutch on Wednesday and Thursday. Regions North of Ahemdabad will also get heavy rains next 36 hrs. 

Alongwith the system the Monsoon also moves westwards into Pakistan's Sindh Coast. The Monsoon should be on KHI by Thursday, and as mentioned yesterday, Karachi should get showers by Wednesday.

City weather in some time...and Maharashtra and Mumbai Water levels....later tonite








The UAC mentioned earlier has descended as a low around the MP/Gujarat/Rajasthan Border. Associated clouding is seen in the satellite image, mostly in the SW Quadrant in Gujarat. (BB1). (Ananth, I think you are bringing in the luck)

Clouds and precipitation are seen moving towards the low along the South Gujarat coast. Most of the "rush" of clouding is above the Maharashtra border, just about "avoiding the Konkan Coastline" as of Tuesday afternoon.

Rain can be seen in North Gujarat, and adjoining MP...but not along Konkan as yet...

Lets see and observe the low throughout the day today..and discuss tonite..those on Fb please come on line for discussion in the "Vagaries of the Weather" group....@ 10 pm 


Also will put up on blog tonite..

33 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thank you Rajesh, Delighted to see the BB1,i hope its harbinger of more positive news

Regards, Ananth

Abhijit Modak said...

@ ananth. Very true.. More such low needed from Bay and thier traveling path must be West of WWN side ! By the way one low should create over AP coast and should travel over Madhya Maharashtra region as Pune, Sangli, Satara are in worst conditions of drought ! Pune have got just 51.5 mm rain from 1st June to 10 July period due to absence of Low from BB. And North Konkan has also not seen yet their typical non stop 48 to 36hrs heavy rain until yet ! By this time one or two heavy rains episode are experienced by North Konkan in which Mumbai, Thane, Kalyan, Ulhasnagar, Vasai, Panvel, Karjat region gets rains around 200 to 300 mm in 24 hrs ! Which helps dams of Mumbai ,Thane, Pune,Nashik to get fill more than 60% by this time of July. But all is missing this year until yet and dams levels are alarming due to no episode of 250mm rains in 24hrs period in North Konkan Belt ! and today no rains just one spell of rain over Badlapur Region ! Now just overcast ! Atleast yesterday full day saw an contionous rains but today after achieving low mark rains are bypassing North Konkan !

Vivek said...

Hi Rajeshbhai,

Can you please explain what is a UAC and BB1?

As I mentioned, I am trying to learn more about the monsoon.

Thank you,
Regards,
Vivek

Abhijit Modak said...

It seems west coast off shore trough is getting organized or stronger! Today 8.30 am rainfall data shows decent figures of Rain right from Trivandrum,Kerala to Coastal Karnataka and now extending till Goa. Hoping for getting more stronger and Heavy Rain reaches till North Konkan now !

Ron said...

any chance this low will embed with the off shore trough...any lows about to form in the coming days...

RK said...

Hour long of heavy downpour here at greater noida....weather is too good...it has rained daily here since 6th july (except 8th), hope it continues this way :)

sset said...

This again shows Raj/Guj receving consistent rains and ofcourse excess in last 5 years. Infact it rains hardest in Thar!!!!!

But interior peninsular indian has shown negative rain and last 2 years serious drought - in all last 5 years shows almost decreasing rains and weaker NEM.

What do weather experts make out of this?

sset said...

Gaganbawada rain seems to exceed Augumbe. Correct?

Shitij said...

Today sky was covered with heavy clouds. During the evening time Surat got some heavy showers which lasted for 30 min. I think that total rainfall amount should be around 30-35mm.

Anonymous said...

Hi,

What is the prediction for rains in Delhi, Punjab and Haryana in the coming days?

Pavan said...

No, agumbe is up it has crossd 1900mark and g'bawda is around 1830

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh sir.Thank you very much for providing Barvi dam rains till today & current filling position of Dam. For suburbs cities like Thane, Kalyan-Dombivili, Ulhasnagar, Ambernath & Badlapur and even some parts of Navi Mumbai like Airoli-Koparkhairne are fully dependent on Barvi dam water supply for whole year. And in Thane District only Thane city & Barvi dam,Badlapur region have managed to cross 700mm mark of rain for current monsoon season till today.

sset said...

Raj / Guj receiving lows from both AS and BB. (this pehenomenon has become more prominent during last 5 years). Jaisalmar 2010 monsoon has recorded 800mm in 2 days showing extreme heavy falls are not only for konkan or NE areas. Kutch receives more/excess rain than interiors of south peninsular india.

Whole phenomenon indicated change in weather pattern during last few years.


NAVI MUMBAI lashing rains since yesterday - any UAC??

rajesh said...

ron:the current low ,BB1 , will merge with the monsoon trough, which will shift south. That may keep the off shore trough "alive"
sset: vagaries had predicted good rainfall for Mumbai region for Tuesday..but city itself got notheing, and navi Mumbai got good rains as you mention..
anonymous: are you from Delhi ? Please mention that as it helps to forecast and get feedbacks.

Pavan said...

Sir pl list out the driest places of this season which are rain deficit, i knw i wil get immediet response of sset stating it as bangalore at 14mm but drought is very severe in the regions east of nh4(pune blore highway) pune is stil egarly waitng fr rains as banglore,
sset do visit pune to see the harshness of weather

GSB said...

Heavy rainfall today in Thane. 40mm since 00am. Total for the season crosses 725mm. Looks good today....

Vivek said...

Any chance of heavy rains in Delhi/Haryana this week?

Ron said...

many places in trombay,deonar waterlogged...

rajesh said...

vivek: Delhi /Haryana can get light rains upto 10 mms on Thursday. Friday there can be an increase in intensity, with heavier showers in Delhi region. And Saturday too will get rain ,medium in many parts of delhi and Haryana.
If you want more in detail, please let me know, and i can put up in evening....

rajesh said...

heavy showers here since 15 minutes..

Anonymous said...

looks like the monsoon has covered entire india now

Vivek said...

Yes I am eager to read your forecast for Delhi/Haryana. We have had one good spell of rain on Friday (6th July). And scattered thundershowers thereafter.

It rained a little bit this morning. But its bright and sunny right now.

Thank you

sset said...

Pavanji myself am a great nature lover and was a resident of BARC Anushaktinager and now Navi Mumbai. I have visited Pune multiple times of course Mumbai-Pune hills always charmed me. Last 10years I am in Bangalore for my work. Coming from green areas of Mumbai and seeing barreness, destruction of trees, useless politicians of Karanataka has always disturbed me. Infact with my own eyes I have seen how climate,rain,soil of Bangalore,mysore has changed with trend towards desertification. 20years back Bangalore/Mysore was different- some premonsoon, little normal monsoon, little NEM so atleast 800mm average city used to receive- but during past 5years - NEM dissappeared, normal monsoon barely touched 100-200mm, pre-monsoon only 80mm. But this year that is also not present.But last 5years Pune got good rains exceeding 1000mm yearly rain.

But if you notice reverse is happening over Guj/Raj erstwhile dry areas -now wet areas. Maybe scientific correlation maybe incorrect but this is from eye observation.

Alexander Rajan (weatherman from Bangalore) any comments on Bangalore? Anathji could you bless interior peninsular India?

Pradeep said...

All over India top 24 hrs rainfall recorded in 2012 are as follows
------------
Minimum (300 mm)

1.Cherrapunji, Meghlaya – 26.06.12 – 772 mm
2.Cherrapunji, Meghlaya – 25.06.12 – 461 mm
3.Cherrapunji, Meghlaya – 09.06.12 – 396 mm
4.Malvan, Maharashtra – 19.06.12 – 386 mm
5.Khowai, Tripura – 16.06.12 – 369 mm
6.Dapoli, Maharahtra – 18.06.12 – 337 mm
7.Gossaigaon, Assam - 26.06.12 - 330 mm
8. Kokrajhar, Assam - 26.06.12 - 320 mm
9.Dhubri, Assam – 16.06.12 – 315 mm
10.Mount Abu, Rajasthan - 11.07.12 - 313 mm
11.Falakata, West Bengal – 17.06.12 – 312 mm

Anonymous said...

@SSET, i wish i had the powers to conjure a deep depression powering rains into peninsula, but all i can do is hope earnestly, and probably motivate people to use water wisely. Droughts is a very much part of Indian life.

PS: I have a hunch that a low might pop up near andhra coast around 18th. (more hope than anything else).

Regards, Ananth

sset said...

Pradeep has promptly enriched us with one day highs. If we notice Maharashtra, Cherrapunji are major toppers - and one outlier we are debating Rajisthan (dry areas) has entered topper list - and none from peninsular India!!!!!

Some of the worst dry areas of peninsular from IMD report - rain as of 01-june-2012. Wondering if same repeats next year?? because NEM has been never strong for past 5years


Mandya 4mm
Bangalore AP 16mm
Bangalore 9mm
Tumkur 14mm
Mysore 40mm
Bellary 13mm


Thanks

rajesh said...

vivek:Delhi Thursday Showers post noon 10 mms, later few showers till night 2 mms. Haryana not much rain in the day on Thursday, except adjoining Delhi NCR.
Thursday night very heavy rain Jaipur-Delhi patch. Southern Delhi and Southern Haryana can get medium showers,

Friday, Delhi gets a few showers heavy in some parts, cloudy day. From Friday night, Delhi and Haryana get good rains till Mid day Saturday.

Decreasing rains from Sunday.

UAC is Upper Air Circulation. That is "low" at a higher altitude.
BB! is the number given to a system from the Bay. 1 is the first of the season.

Thanks Pradeep.
Ananth., i too hope so, a low for the Bay soon.

Vivek said...

Thank you Rajesh sir. Fingers crossed for more rain in Delhi and elsewhere (Bangalore, Poona etc).

I will keep you posted.

Abhijit Modak said...

Wow Really excited today to tell mine rain figure of Badlapur, Thane District here. Flat Steel base Utensil Measured 101mm & Plastic cold drink bottle measured 105mm rains in just 6hrs(i.e12am to 6am) !

sset said...

Rajesh- Rained vigoursly today early mmorning at Navi Mumbai - Belapur between 12am and 3am. Rain was intense,stromy,thundery - looks like dump of 100mm - 300mm in 2 hours.

Shitij said...

Can you tell me Rajesh sir where did you find the maximum level of free convection map in imd website

rajesh said...

sset/Abhijit: Very heavy overnight rain from Panvel/Navi Mumbai And Thane regions..see figures put on Mumbai Page..
Shitij: try this site and get the map..http://202.54.31.51/wrf/wrfdp.aspx

Anonymous said...

Thanks Rajesh ji for all the efforts you put in for the blog.

Is it Possible to put a page specific for Pune, like it is done for Mumbai and Aurangabad?