Sunday, July 29, 2012

Rainfall from 8/30am -5.30pm Tuesday: Pune 49 mms, Lohgaon 27 mms, Mahableshwar 114 mms Satara 34 mms and Nasik 22 mms.


Heavy rains commencing over Mumbai, possibly for the next few hours..rains till 5.30pm were only 9.4 mms at Colaba,  10.2 mms at vagaries and 3.4 mms at scruz. Next few hours likely to cross 40-50 mms...Burst of rainfall is due to a temporary strengthening  (just over a small region) of the west coast off shore trough... posted at 5.45pm Tuesday..


Lake rainfall 24 hrs ended till 8.30 am Tuesday: (Mumbai Lakes) Bhatsa 38 mms, Vaitarna  147 mms, Modaksagar 74 mms, Tansa 38 mms, Vihar  10 mms and Tulsi 31 mms.
Mulshi (Pune/Lonavala)Lake measured 204 mms., Khadakvasla 122mms, Gunjwani 116 mms.
Mukane (Nasik): 101 mms.
Jayakwadi (Aurangabad) : 1 mm.




Rains lash Delhi NCR from Tuesday early Morning.
As the axis shifts North, the NCR got fairly good amounts with flooding in Gurgaon as reported by Vikas.
 Palam recieved 57 mms till 8.30 am Tuesday, Ayanagar 48 mms, Pitampura 23 mms, Gurgaon 28 mms , Sjung  9 mms and Lodhi 8 mms.Noida got 3 mms.

Vagaries had put up an increase from Tuesday night into Wednesday, taking due care not to rush into an early forecast.. but, the rains obliged 18 hrs earlier.


 Mumbai Page Updated with latest lakes storages and Maharashtra reservoir levels..and Tuesday morning rainfall.



Outlook For next 3 days, Monday, 30th July, Tuesday, 31st July and Wednesday 1st August:

Not a very august begining for the month...I do not know if I have got my basics right, but i see a break monsoon condition for Central, Western, Southern and peninsula India from Wednesday, 1st August.

Monday, 30th
Axis remains in the current position, along Northern Rajasthan/North MP/UP and W.Bengal....with the UAC weakening over N.Rajasthan. Embedded UAC over Up keeps the region active. Eastern off shore trough remains intact.
Heavy rainfall in the region where the 3 states of AP/Maharashtra/Chattisgarh merge. Some locations can get upto 100 mms in 24 hrs.The region around this area gets heavy rains, with Nagpur seeing some convective and heavy showers Monday and more in the night. 
Konkan sees it usual medium rains, with precipitation measuring between 20-40 mms at some stations along the coastal belt.

Tuesday 31st and Wednesday 1st Aug: 
MJO in our seas enters into a weak phase.
The axis shifts Northwards towards UP and Utteranchal. touching foothills of Himalayas by Wednesday. 
Delhi NCR could see precipitation on Wednesday evening as the rains approach the adjoining Utteranchal regions. Increase in rainfall over Central Nepal as rainfall rushes to Utteranchal and adjoining UP. 
We see rains decreasing from Chattisgarh/Vidharbha and Northern AP areas. 
Further decrease in Konkan from Monday levels by Wednesday. 
South,(Interior Karnataka and TN) the usual sporadic showers (some convective) and in very isolated pockets. 
No meaningfull increase in intensity in Gujarat and rest interior Maharashtra.

Pakistan: Next 3 days, We see some scatterd rains/thundershowers in Northern regions of the country. 
No meaningfull rains in Sindh region. In fact Hyderabad (Sindh) and Sukkur may be totally dry with no rains worth measuring.

City Wise Forecasts:


Mumbai: Monday: Partly cloudy. 3/4 showers intersparsed during the day. A few could be heavy in some regions. Rainfall decreasing from the current levels by evening...
Rain Amount from 8.30 am Monday-8.30am Tuesday: 15 mms.
Tuesday/Wednesday: Does not seem very good for the starting of a month...Partly cloudy with sunny intervals..decrease in rains by Wednesday. 
Rain Amounts: upto 10 mms on Tuesday and less on Wednesday.

Pune: Would remain cloudy, but clearing by evening/night. Drizzles in some regions in the day. Rain Amount: up to 5 mms/day.

Delhi NCR: Monday/Tuesday: Cloudy with a couple of showers in different areas of the region. A few areas could get a brief heavy shower. Rain Amount: 5-10 mms.
Wednesday: Rainfall increasing by evening. A few heavy thundershowers in parts of the region will indicate an increase. Rain Amount: upto 20-25 mms.

Hyderabad (India): Same status, except we can expect some light showers on Monday..otherwise decrease in rains on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain Amount on Monday : 5mms.

Bangalore: Except for that "local" convection shower in an isolated pocket, i would label the city as "dry". No substantial rains from an organised system or convectional front. Rain would be less than 5 mms/day.

Chennai: An odd shower in some parts would "humidify" the city. These convective showers are in no way from any organised or well formed system, but stray convective rains from the off shore trough. Weather would continue in the same pattern next 3 days as trough remains intact. 



Loads of information and updates coming on Vagaries...
Please be sure not to miss the following updates coming on Vagaries next 2 days...looking forward to your feed backs and views (its been hard work and effort to compile each one).  

1Monday evening, the Maharashtra and Mumbai Lake levels and lake rainfalls will be put up.

2Tuesday: The Monsoon Watch series on vagaries has become a routine and regular feature every year. Its popularity was gauged this year with a maximum of viewership.
Looking at the current situation, Vagaries has for the first time, come up with a mid monsoon "Monsoon Watch".
Please read Monsoon Watch-August, which will be up on Tuesday evening. It will be worth the reading as the "final salt" has been added by Rajan Alexander. And we all know, without the salt, the main dish is tasteless!

3Wednesday evening...City wise performance of monsoon till July end....with diagrams and graphs..trying to cover some cities.  

62 comments:

Shitij said...

Despite of heavy cloud cover no rain in Surat.

Pavan said...

Hope the salt is iodised for higher msl like pune and blore, pune didn't even cross 100mm in these 60 days for last 5 yrs we tchd 1000mm annually.

Atul said...

Agree with pravin

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Eagerly waiting for your forecast for Early week (and specially for North Konkan belt). As I just attempted to forecast for North Konkan belt with increase in Rain activity for Monday & Tuesday period ! So your forecast will be an like result (self testing)to me that how still small kid I am in Meteorology field..

In between yesterday & today I saw some increase in Rain activity at least in Badlapur, Matheran, Karjat belt. Yesterday means till today 8.30am Karjat measured 40mm , Matheran measured 20mm & Badlapur measured 25mm. And today Badlapur received occasional short heavy spells for Full day and measured 20mm from 8.30am to 10.30pm period in mine own gauge setup. So some increase in rainfall noticed.

Pavan said...

Sir what are these convetn showrs, r these the same whch we get in pune during mid aug to oct with thunder and whch are really localisd as per mY observation these showrs may vary from 25 to 100mm

Abhijit Modak said...

Night added 10mm here in Badlapur. So past 24hrs rain measured here is 30mm till today 8.30am.

Vijayanand said...

Clear start to the day in bangalore. August ,Sep and Oct represent best of months for bangalore in terms of rain. Hope things improve in the coming days. Last 15 days saw kind of isolated rains in bangalore. North bangalore area like hebbal , KR puram and Airport area seem to have benefited more than South Bangalore.

July is coming to end today. Waiting to see All India stats. Hope it is better than June.

KEA Weather said...

"July is coming to end today"

I thought July had 31 days

Anonymous said...

Rajesh..no rain tonite in Borivali. Where on blog will i see the mumbai rainfall put up every day..can someone tell me. Chetan

Nagpur Star said...

Rajesh Bhai,

Great weak for Nagpur!. We havent seen the Sun for 3-4 days now. Its been pouring.
Can you tell me the deficit for Nagpur for June and July.

Amit

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Some intensity of Rain has been increased noted in interior North Konkan . Some taluka figures of rains in past 24hrs. Thane Dist talukas Wada 56mm, Shahapur 30mm, Palghar 42mm, Javahar 95mm, Mokhada 49mm, Vikramgadh 98mm & Badlapur measured 30mm. So as Mumbai lakes comes under interior Thane District so Mumbai lakes level must have increased a bit. And lakes region figure not available with me but lake like Modak sagar must also have got heavy spell in past 24hrs !

GSB said...

Thane city 13 mm today from 00 AM. Season's total crossed 1000 mm !!

Anonymous said...

It is correct, July has 31 days and therefore comes to an end tomorrow. Duh

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Mine forecast of increase in Rain activiy from Sunday for North Konkan going bit right ! As past 24hrs Mumbai city may had miss out rains but Mumbai lakes in Thane District got the rains ranging 30 to 70mm ! And also many talukas of Thane district got heavy rains. Today also Badlapur seen frequent short heavy rain spells with dense black through out day with gusty winds. Measured 37mm rain here from 8.30am to 5.30pm period today. .

Pavan said...

It raining in pune frm morning with drizzles and heavy showers in betwn it may xrs 100mm today

Vijayanand said...

Dry day coming to an end in bangalore. Quite a warm and clear day. Nothing to cheer about :(

Pradeep said...

Rajesh Sir,

Three HRF stations in Maharashtra cross 3000 mm rainfall in SWM 2012 simultaneously with today's rainfall.

Rainfall in mm (June 1st to 30th July 2012) min 2500

1.Dajipur - 3049
2.Gaganbawada - 3008
3.Kitwade - 3001
4.Patagon - 2978
5.Sagameshwar - 2959
6.Kasari - 2630
7.Amboli - 2606

Pavan said...

Mr pradip whch stations didn't xrsd even 100mm

Abhijit Modak said...

Heavy Rain spells lashing Badlapur through out the day . 49mm rain measured here in past 12hrs(i.e 8.30am to 8.30pm today).

GSB said...

Today was the NINTH above average All India rainfall at 10.4 MM.

Thus far we have had 9 (15%) above average rainfall days and 51 (85%) below average rainfall days..

The above figures are till 8.30 am today..

sset said...

Bangalore was extremely hot today - like summer. Mandya,Mysore received only 40mm since june. Seems if this continues - agriculture will be wiped out. Bangalore rain 70mm since june. Today myself had been to Bellandur,varthur - all lakes dry (in fact buildings have come up)- no tree plantation - only IT parks with infrastructure- no mercy for nature - each high rise sucks last drop of ground water.

sset said...

Just wondering last 5 years SWM always showed late withdrawls - infact instead of usual september it has been october end. Due it this Raj,Guj,Mah always received excess of rains and south (Rayalseema,TN,interior karnataka) always ended up in drought. Last NEM was quite strange - no lows ever crossed TN, Bangalore had no NEM, cloud movement from Bay ended up in Saudi Arabia-Oman.


Bangalore declared drought hit---

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-07-29/bangalore/32922699_1_drought-hit-drought-tag-bangalore-east

rajesh said...

abhijit: nice work abhijit.your interest is seen in your enthusiasm and consistent follow up.
i want to know if your measuring system is accurate and placed adequately..
sset: karnataka situation bad, and bangalore very bad. shall put up comparison with other cities on wednesday as announced.
Thanks all for city reports,always needed.

rajesh said...

pavan: convection rain is clouds which rise due to the local land mass heating up and forming convection currents. Convection rain is not associated with a system.
Pune gets thunder showers by sept, thru october, and these are really strong convection and thermal currents that build up maasive cb clouds. Precipitation can be heavy with hail.

rajesh said...

sset: I'll add more to the explanation given by anonymous to your query. Normally, any system is a vast storage of energy, heat energy and others. These generally build up the the equatorial regions, as the regions are hot. They always have a polar movement and dissipate their heat in various forms (rain,wind ,lightning etc). That is natures way of balancing the heat also.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Thank you very much for the precious compliment. It will boost me for further detailed study in Meteorology. Yes, I have kept it very accurately under the guidance of Akshay Deoras. Guage have been kept at center of terrace with only rain drops will fall into it and other drops will not interfere with the guage. And for tallying I have placed two guages which photos I have already uploaded on Vagaries of weather open group on FB. 1st guage is flat kitchen steel utensil which do not have any curve or cone shape which Akshay prefered to me and second guage is internet method of using plastic bottle with upper part cut then funnel like shaped formed and that funnel should be place in remaining bottle. And both the guages measured the same amount of rains with just 5 or 7mm difference.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Thank you very much for the precious compliment. It will boost me for further detailed study in Meteorology. Yes, I have kept it very accurately under the guidance of METD Weather head. Guage have been kept at center of terrace with only rain drops will fall into it and other drops will not interfere with the guage. And for tallying I have placed two guages which photos I have already uploaded on Vagaries of weather open group on FB. 1st guage is flat kitchen steel utensil which do not have any curve or cone shape which Akshay prefered to me and second guage is internet method of using plastic bottle with upper part cut then funnel like shaped formed and that funnel should be place in remaining bottle. And both the guages measured the same amount of rains with just 5 or 7mm difference.

GSB said...

@Abhijit, congrats for the compliment from sir. We envy you for that. Maybe some day more of us can do a little predictive work... very difficult I must say..

Abhijit Modak said...

@ GSB . Yes very difficult work for making predication specially monsoon. I think in whole world our Indian summer monsoon is only unpredicatable. I have seen many times very rapid changes take place in the conditions so it makes very difficult to predict for long time !

Abhijit Modak said...

Today also North Konkan can see frequent heavy spells but as gusty winds ranging (20 to 40kmph) has increased from yesterday so might be spells will be short lived. I think rains will be more heavier towards Northern parts of Interior Thane district. From tomorrow, might be towards decreasing side in rain activity with few spells only but sharp heavy spells cannot be rule it.

Arpit Sharma said...

Heavy rain in Ghaziabad since 7am.It was cloudy from the past 5 days with light rain falling at times.

Vikas (Gurgaon) said...

Very heavy rains in Gurgaon since 7:30am. This is the first spell of heavy rain in Gurgaon this season.

Arpit Sharma said...

Seems the rain is fairly widespread.Yes this is the first heavy spell in Ghaziabad too.

Abhijit Modak said...

Night saw less rain activity with 10mm measured but more gusty winds. With this, past 24hrs Badlapur measured 70mm rain. (i.e from yesterday 8.30am till today 8.30am)

RK said...

Heavy rain @ Noida/G.Noida too....seems to be a widespread one....

Vijayanand said...

Partly cloudy morning in bangalore. 2 months of SWM completes today. Wish to see all India-Picture.

As @sset had pointed out "Bangalore rain 70mm since june". Situation is miserable to say the least. Unless we get great rains in the next 3 months, its all gloom and more gloom.
If this continues ,later this year we would end up with neither water nor Electricity.

Pavan said...

Atlast its pouring pouring pouring in pune every where there is waterloggng great july end

Abhijit Modak said...

As expected Rainfall has been increased over North Konkan and also neighboring districts like Nashik and Pune also have been benefited lot.

Some taluka wise rain figures of past 24hrs, Displaying Rain figures which are above 30mm for North Konkan stations till today 8.30am .

Thane District:- Thane 34mm, Murbad 31mm, Wada 48mm, Palghar 50mm, Javhar 39mm, Mokhada,51mm, Talasari 51mm, Vikramgadh 87mm & Badlapur 70mm(own measured).

Raigad District:- Panvel 32mm, Karjat 91mm, Khalapur 33mm, Sudhagadh 74mm, Mahad 63mm, Mangaon 69mm, Roha 49mm, Poladpur 77mm, Tala 36mm.

Displaying Rain Figures For Pune & Nashik Districts which are above 10mm.
Nashik District got widespread rains in all talukas.

Malegaon 15mm, Baglan 17mm, Kalwan 36mm, Nandgaon 15mm, Surgana 114mm, Nashik city 35mm, Dindori 35mm, Igatpuri 93mm, Peth 57mm, Niphad 29mm, Sinnar 32mm, Yevla 13mm, Chandvad 28mm, Trimbakeshwar 75mm.

Pune District too got widespread rains:- Pune City 18mm, Mulshi Paud 71mm , Bhor 25mm, Maval Wadgaon 48mm , Velhe 116mm Ambegaon Ghodegaon 54mm,Purandar Saswad 16mm.

So I think Pune must have got first time 18mm rains in 24hrs period for this season !!

Vivek said...

Hi,
The rain continued in Gurgaon for the entire morning. It started at 7am and stopped at 2pm. The rain was heavy only in the morning, though.

Good fun !

Rajesh sir what is your forecast for the rest of the week?

Atul said...

Good rain here in pune and western Maharashtra :)

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Mumbai may had missed the rain activity again but Thane & Raigad dist are having heavy rains. And rains are taking care of Mumbai water supplying lakes which are in Thane dist. Mumbai lakes rain figures of past 24hrs Upper Vaitarna 150mm , Vaitarna 70mm, Tansa & Bhatsa 40mm till today 8.30am. So very helping rains for fillings of the dam.

NT said...

Very monsoonish weather today in Mumbai, overcast sky with intermittent showers accompanied by gutsy winds. Right now persistent moderate intensity rain at Andheri for the past 20 minutes. Looks like this rain will continue for sometime.

NT said...

Kindly excuse the typo - it should read 'gusty' winds :-)

Vijayanand said...

No rain in bangalore so far today. North Bangalore sky line looks dark. Its very windy.

@NT : Very monsoonish weather today in Mumbai, overcast sky with intermittent showers accompanied by gutsy winds.

Wooow! Wish I was there.

GSB said...

Heavy rainfall in Thane for the last one hour. Must be about 15_20 mm thereabouts. Envirocon website down so not sure. But looks like it's going to rain for a while..

junaid said...

panvel has received heavy intermittent showers thruout the day,,,,and the day was heavily overcast and cool today,,at least 5-6cm of rain must have fell by 5;30 pm

Bhavik said...

Seems to be a rainy day for Mumbai today and tommorrow.
@Abhijit -- Thanks for providing rainfall figures for Mumbai Lakes. Some positive news for crore+ population

Nagpur Star said...

Rajesh Bhai,
Incessent rains lashing nagpur from morning. Real monsoon weather.
Can anybody tell me about Nagpur rain deficit.
Thanks,

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir . It seems mine forecast of increase rain activity from Sunday till Tuesday night going fully correct now. Today also Badlapur received Frequent heavy rain spells with gusty winds & continuos black through out the day. 40mm rain measured here from 8.30am to 5.30pm period today.

Ron said...

stuck in mahalaxmi...heavy rains...

svt said...

Rained heavily in Dadar-Parel area btw 4:30pm to 5:15pm. After that it was just drizzling but in last 10 mins rains have once again increased. Gusty winds continuing since afternoon.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. If Temporary strenghthing of off shore trough of west coast ,then from Sunday night Thane & Raigad Dist and even Nashik & Pune district getting rains then that rains of which system then ? Only Mumbai & few coastal towns has shown late rains picking activity (i.e from today evening 5.30pm ) ! Interior North Konkan having heavy rains from Sunday itself ! I have looked for strenghting of offshore coast from Sunday itself !

Vijayanand said...

Weather Stats for mumbai

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/VABB/2012/7/31/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

Appears like its very windy out there.

Anonymous said...

Abhijit :) congrats you got your predictions spot on .

I am happy for a change Rajesh sir predictions went off mark . I dont think Rajesh would mind that. Much needed rains in Pune and Nashik regions.

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur received 22mm rain in just half n hour period. So total now 62mm from 8.30am till 6.30pm today.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir.It seems off shore trough off west extending right from Kutch/Pakistan Sindh Coast border till Ratnagiri coast now in Arabian Sea. And I am not sure of this, may be wrong too! But off shore trough turning into monsoon axis like line from Pune to Hyderabad till Machilipatnam and entering into Bay Bengal. And northern part of this line are getting the rains ! I may be wrong also for above indications mentioned ! So Sorry in Advance.

rajesh said...

To all interested.
Abhijit, what you guaged was ok, (the rainfall).
A correction in your estimate.
The rainfall in Mah. was not due to UAC moving W/SW as you thought. Remember, no system can touch any southerly movement. very very rare !
The increasing rainfall in Madhya Maharashtra, North and South, was due to an elongated trough at 500 hpa. It must have developed "aloft" maybe due to wind shear or favourable upper air temperatures. The UTH was favourable for sudden cloud formation. See, wind shear conditions can change fast. Our predictions are made on presumptions of normal and consequental developments depending on the season.
Check the trough aloft here:http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/00hgfs_500wind.htm. IMD estimates the truogh to hang on for 24 hrs more. (Doubtfull).
Yes, the trough has moved a bit westwards, and i expect it to weaken again within 12 hrs.
Secondly, the monsoon axis has already moved northwards. That coincides with the rain forecasted by vagaries in Delhi.
No question at all of monsoon axis coming as low as Pune/ AP. That would be in September end, when the SWM starts withdrawing.

Check the weak trough , which strengthened temporarily here.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/00hgfs_mslp.htm.

Pavan said...

Its a huge rain may cross 10cm today

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Thank you very Much for detailed explanation. But I also estimated that due to quite stationery of UAC over West MP more than 48hrs period due to westerly winds from Pakistan border.So this will give enough time for Arabain sea to develop an off shore trough off North Maharashtra/South Gujarat coast and flow of Moisture will be increased over North Konkan ! And second thing is that, it is again proved that Indian Summer Monsoon is most unpredictable than any other monsoon or any weather event in whole world ! As very rapid changes or sudden factors develops occurs in Indian Monsoon! Now see latest example ,We said Pune will be drier this week or just 5mm expected in few parts of the City but received First Heavy Rains for this season. And also Pune who took 2 months for achieving 100mm rain mark this season but has got 50mm rains in just 9hrs So total now 150mm there ! And 26 July 2005 Mumbai deluge of 1000mm rain in just 24hrs was also unpredictable for all Meteorologist all over the world ! Few global forecasters were predicting rains around 300mm for Mumbai which I had sawn on Internet at that time .

Abhijit Modak said...

I put on watch lets see whether it goes right again! I think Full Konkan coast of Maharashtra will be getting Moderate rains till Saturday Night 4th Aug! Same places may get above 100mm or may be between 20mm to 70mm. Interior Konkan & Western ghats will see more rain activity. It may not be continuous but in Occasional short heavy spells with sometimes sunny too ! So this will be helpful for filling of dams which are dependent on Western Ghat rains.

All above are just mine predictions by doing some own observations, so it may go wrong also!

Abhijit Modak said...

So might be good start for August at least for Konkan belt.

Pavan said...

Rain stopd with a bright moonlight thanks to almighty for a beautiful day and a lovely ngt